Lurker > KamikazePotato

The Mana Sword posted...

if I never have to read the words hentai rally after this contest ever again itll be too soon

This is the only current problem I have with the contest. The Stats Topic is the worst it's been in a while.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Qwaar posted...

Why is this topic so barren considering how close the match is?

What is there to talk about unless someone pulls away? If it's still this close with 30 minutes left to go, things will be a different story.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I don't take Snake over Mario, but it's very possible that he's not far behind. Win or lose, I don't think Mario is equal to Samus in strength - she's clearly above him based on every result we've seen so far that *isn't* them going head-to-head.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Will be doing this over a period of a few days, so might as well post what I've got so far on Divisions 1-4. Waiting on a few more results to see what's going to be done with Divisions 5-8...those are looking to be a headache thanks to all the weird Legends matches.

Link - 50
Cloud - 39.48
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Ganondorf - 32.98
Bowser - 32.06
Kirby - 32
Vivi - 31.68
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Big Boss - 27.63
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Yuna - 25.25
Ness - 24.82
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Scorpion - 23.42
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Lightning - 19.77
Isaac - 19.01
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Joel - 18.28
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Monika - 17.07
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65

Some notes:

1. Spent like 20 minutes meticulously checking every result in the past for Ike and Phoenix Wright and concluded that their unadjusted stat (even after bumping Kirby up) was completely nonsensical. Adjusted Ike based on his 2010 ratio to Ness, then Phoenix based on Ike, and called it a day.
2. Set Kirby to slightly weaker than Bowser because fuck if I know.
3. Thanks to Ganondorf getting Bacondorf'd against Mega Man, used some various ways to adjust Division 1. Setting Ganondorf=Bowser and adjusting based on that made everyone except Ganondorf look really bad. Setting Tidus=Yuna made Ganondorf too strong. Averaged the two constants and called it a day.
4. Used the second Mega Man/Pikachu match.
5. Adjusted Crono through Alucard and Bowser (bumped him up like 1-2% vs. Cloud) to account for possible Square overlap.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

All this discussion is doing is reminding me that adjusting the stats for Division 5-8 is going to be a massive headache.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Is Mario even a better troop-rallier at this point? He's dropping matches to Nintendo chicks left and right.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Well, that barrier didnt last long.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Preliminary X-stats for Division 1-4. SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Link - 50
Cloud - 39.48
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Ganondorf - 32.98
Bowser - 32.06
Kirby - 32
Vivi - 31.68
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Big Boss - 27.63
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Yuna - 25.25
Ness - 24.82
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Scorpion - 23.42
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Lightning - 19.77
Isaac - 19.01
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Joel - 18.28
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Monika - 17.07
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65

1. Spend like 20 minutes meticulously checking every result in the past for Ike and Phoenix Wright and concluded that their unadjusted stat (even after bumping Kirby up) was completely nonsensical. Adjusted Ike based on his 2010 ratio to Ness, then Phoenix based on Ike, and called it a day.
2. Set Kirby to slightly weaker than Bowser because fuck if I know.
3. Tried to different constants for Division 1. Setting Ganondorf=Bowser and adjusting based on that made everyone except Ganondorf look really bad. Setting Tidus=Yuna made Ganondorf too strong. Averaged the two constants and called it a day.
4. Used the second Mega Man/Pikachu match.
5. Adjusted Crono through Alucard and Bowser (bumped him up like 1% vs. Cloud).
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Basic adjustments made:

1. Spend like 20 minutes meticulously checking every result in the past for Ike and Phoenix Wright and concluded that their unadjusted stat (even after bumping Kirby up) was completely nonsensical. Adjusted Ike based on his 2010 ratio to Ness and called it a day.
2. Set Kirby to slightly weaker than Bowser because fuck if I know.
3. Tried to different contants for Division 1. Setting Ganondorf=Bowser and adjusting based on that made everyone except Ganondorf look really bad. Setting Tidus=Yuna made Ganondorf too strong. Averaged the two constants and called it a day.
4. Used the second Mega Man/Pikachu match.
5. Adjusted Crono through Alucard and Bowser (bumped him up like 1% vs. Cloud).

And probably some other stuff I'm forgetting.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Preliminary X-stats for Division 1-4. SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Link - 50
Cloud - 39.48
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Ganondorf - 32.98
Bowser - 32.06
Kirby - 32
Vivi - 31.68
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Big Boss - 27.63
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Yuna - 25.25
Ness - 24.82
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Scorpion - 23.42
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Lightning - 19.77
Isaac - 19.01
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Joel - 18.28
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Monika - 17.07
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

By the way: I'm currently making the X-stats for Division 1-4 (they're fairly easy to do, while 5-8 are going to suck), and everyone looks hilariously weak because of how strong Link is. Zidane gets 23% on him.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

KamikazePotato posted...

Samus needs to pull away from Mario first.

She listened.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

In Crono/Cloud 1, he underperformed his Alucard & Bowser projections by like...1%. If there's SFF there, it's minor.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Moonroof posted...

There was massive fuckery in that Seph Tifa match.

No proof of this. Basically lines up with Samus/Mario's results once you take the Nintendo hierarchy into account, which we know for a fact exists. And if an FF7 hierarchy exists, it goes in Sephiroth's direction, not the other way around.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Samus needs to pull away from Mario first.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7369-loser-bracket-round-1-tifa-vs-sephiroth
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Snake went even with Zelda, blew out Sonic, and blew out Auron. His falloff is less than you think.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Snake probably doesn't beat Mario, but he could. Mario is clearly not stronger than Samus if he's struggling for his life even with the Hierarchy in his corner.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Ngamer64 posted...

Well The Show certainly took one on the chin with that Zelda CURSE, but good recovery for us since then. We liked Crono to edge it out in the coiniest of coinflips, had high confidence in Samus to move past Snake without much trouble, and thought Samus could keep things interesting in the runback. She's got it down to 27 votes at the moment!

KP, The Genius: "Samus may have been hurt by her sprite last round."

I may have done horribly this contest, but I'll take making one or two smart comments on The Show as a consolation price!
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Oh.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

It's hard for me to imagine someone strongly rooting for Mario in this match. This is a comeback 12 years in the making.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Crono underperformed in Cloud/Crono 1 (which is what I assume those stats use), and Pikachu got SFFd by Link. There's a lot of things that are going to be looked at when creating adjusted stats.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Assuming that trends follow Mario/Samus 1, Samus is going to end up with a higher % by the end of the match than she does right now. Trends have often not followed logic in this contest, though.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Samus is really taking off.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Qwaar posted...

And by "this", I didn't mean winning in general, I meant how the hell did she stop Mario pulling away and then start pulling in these ridiculous updates?

The early vote is Mario's best time.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Qwaar posted...

How the hell is Samus doing this?

Sprite round probably hurt her a bit compared to Mario.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

It's happening...?
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

Cloud has already surpassed his result against Crono from last time, so we can already see that sprites hurt Cloud in that first match.

god crono and mega man suck

We've already seen that indirectly (through Bowser and Alucard) Crono/MM are worth 45% on Cloud. This is...I guess whatever you want it to be. SFF, Smash factor, whatever. Results right now are weirder by the way.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Fun is over
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mario gained but at this point last match he had 53% on Samus
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mario probably takes the lead on the next update, but if Samus can hold the line during the Power Hour she's got a real chance
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

So much for rematches producing identical results
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Woah, bad start for Crono.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

The Chrono Trigger day vote once again seals a victory for the franchise.

Wait...
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I don't control trends! Unlike MWC, I'm not a stuffer n_n
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Voting Gauntlet became a joke when Helbindi lost in Round 1 to generic pedobait.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mega Man's not quite going the direction he should be now.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Like let's look at the options:

1. Samus is SFFing/overperforming by 7% on a character from an entirely different company, genre, and series (she is probably overperforming by some amount, but not THAT much)
And
2. Zelda rSFFd Mario to the point by like 7%.
And
3. Tifa rSFFd Sephiroth by like 5%. Tifa rSFFd Sephiroth.

Or:

1. Mario did the same Hierarchy BS to Samus that we've already seen in the past.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I don't think Samus is SFFing Snake. She's just really strong. The Mario match is a fraudulent result.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Samus could be getting a Smash recency boost, but I doubt she gets less than 55% in this match regardless.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mega Man's gonna have to stall a bit more than this if he wants to keep hope alive.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I have like 10 MWC accounts on ignore and I strongly suggest that everyone follows suit.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Also while Samus might be overperforming on Snake here for any number of reasons, overall I think this discussion has a more simple answer: Samus is strong. Really really strong. She was naturally stronger than Snake in 2006 and she's naturally stronger this year too. She blew out Tifa who proceeded to turn around and clown Sephiroth, and then she held up fantastically against Mario despite the Hierarchy having 60-40d her last time around. Until proven otherwise, Samus is the #2 on this site.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

In the last 3.5 hours of the match, Mega Man increased his lead on Pikachu by 113 after having lost ground up until then. 150 is probably too tall of an order though.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

XIII_rocks posted...

MM nearly made it 19 hours, but this is Crono's match now without a shift

KamikazePotato posted...

For the record, Mega Man did poorly against Pikachu in this timeframe. He rebounded in the last two hours so I wouldn't call this match over just yet.

---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

For the record, Mega Man did poorly against Pikachu in this timeframe. He rebounded in the last two hours so I wouldn't call this match over just yet.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Mega Man did poorly against Pikachu in this timeframe. He rebounded in the last two hours so I wouldn't call this match over just yet.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

We're living in a Bizarro world where Solid Shit may have hurt Snake less than a 3D model pic.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I believe at one point on this episode that the x-stats for this contest were going to be pretty reliable. Samus is currently doing her best to challenge that claim.
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

Not transitive except when rematches happen, apparently!
---

Black Turtle did a pretty good job.