Lurker > charmander6000

Doesn't look like Cloud will survive the first freeze
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Cloud at 60%

Why does FFVII always win?
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Match CL: (1) Link vs. (4) Cloud Strife

Current Contest Performance

Link
Defeated Ganondorf, 79.64% - 20.36%
Defeated Pikachu, 68.41% - 31.59%
Defeated Cloud Strife, 60.52% - 39.48%
Defeated Zelda, 63.56% - 36.44%

Cloud Strife
Defeated Alucard, 60.40% - 39.60%
Defeated Crono, 56.73% - 43.27%
Lost to Link, 39.48% - 60.52%
Defeated Crono, 57.79% - 42.21%
Defeated Mario, 50.24% - 49.76%
Defeated Zelda, 51.2x% - 48.7x%

Analysis

After all the debates it looks like Cloud will remain the second strongest character of the bracket, though I imagine there will be some people that will argue that the honor belongs to Samus. Regardless, congratulations to Cloud for making the Grand Final.

Too bad Link is still going to stomp him. The only question is whether or not Cloud will hold up better relative to his previous match. Like Zelda, I feel Cloud will get a bit of a boost at the beginning of the match and then will drop off for the rest of the day. In the end, it should be enough to break 40%, but thats of little consolation to how powerful Link has become. Overall, I had fun this contest. Im a big fan of double elimination brackets, but it needs to be fixed to prevent rematches as much as possible.

charmander6000s Bracket: Link > Solid Snake

charmander6000s Prediction: Link wins, 58.89% - 41.11%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Quarter on (4) Cloud Strife (+20)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Link - 58.89%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Link

Thanks for hosting!
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Honestly, it's because people are still angry Mario defeated Crono in 2003. Outside of beating Samus a couple of days ago Mario has been very non-controversial for 15 years.
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Match CXLIX: (4) Zelda vs. (7) Mario

Zelda
Defeated Ezio Auditore da Firenze, 75.33% - 24.67%
Defeated The Boss, 70.70%, 29.30%
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 63.32% - 36.68%
Defeated Aerith Gainsborough, 62.19% - 37.81%
Defeated Solid Snake, 50.32% - 49.68%
Defeated Sonic the Hedgehog, 56.45% - 43.55%
Defeated Mario, 50.91% - 49.09%
Lost to Link, 36.44% - 63.56%

Mario
Defeated Sephiroth, 59.25% - 40.75%
Defeated Samus Aran, 51.42% - 48.58%
Lost to Zelda, 49.09% - 50.91%
Defeated Samus Aran, 50.03% - 49.97%
Defeated Cloud Strife, 50.1x-49.8x

Analysis

Zelda was able to hold Link off for about five minutes before crashing down to Earth. Overall, she did quite well, avoiding the brunt of the SFF hammer. Mario on the other hand is coming off of another close match. Will he be able to get his revenge on Zelda?

That depends on whether or not Zelda retains her bandwagon. Her loss to Link was quite demoralizing to the point where it was quite clear she would lose again if she tried. At the same time, she only needs to retain a small portion of that bandwagon to hold off Mario whom is regaining his reputation of being a bit of a villain in these contests. You clutch out three wins over 15 years ago and youre branded a villain for life. If Cloud wins this match as he is leading and I dont have time to redo my analysis, Id give him a better chance at winning, but in the end, I still think Zelda has this.

charmander6000s Bracket: Solid Snake > Mario

charmander6000s Prediction: Zelda wins, 53.73% - 46.27%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Mario

Quarter on (4) Zelda (-2)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Mario

Zelda
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CBX - Today's Winner: Mario

Zelda - 53.73%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Mario

It's not that hard to make a bracket with Cloud/Mario/Samus/Zelda/Snake on one half.
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CBX - Today's Winner: Mario

Hey look Cloud is cheating

>_>

<_<
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CBX - Today's Winner: Mario

TheOneAboveAll posted...

This makes no sense.

Look at what Cloud did to Link, it's not that surprising...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Looks like the board realized that FFVII doesn't always win...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Quick Nintendo, release a water based Mario game.
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Cloud with the early vote or is Mario screwed?
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Advokaiser posted...

But people loved Odyssey, right?

No this is OldManFAQs no one has played it.

>_>
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Let's fill this topic before the match begins...

What contest do we want for 2019?
1. Best Console Contest
2. Villains Contest 2
3. Female Contest 2
4. Series Contest 2
5. Character Battle XI
6. Best Game Ever 4
7. Quotes Contest
8. Wait until 2020 for Game of the Decade 2
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Match CXLVIII: (4) Cloud Strife vs. (7) Mario

Current Contest Performance

Cloud Strife
Defeated Alucard, 60.40% - 39.60%
Defeated Crono, 56.73% - 43.27%
Lost to Link, 39.48% - 60.52%
Defeated Crono, 57.79% - 42.21%

Mario
Defeated Sephiroth, 59.25% - 40.75%
Defeated Samus Aran, 51.42% - 48.58%
Lost to Zelda, 49.09% - 50.91%
Defeated Samus Aran, 50.03% - 49.97%

Analysis

In a battle of rematches Cloud was able to extend his victory over Crono while Mario required the final update to take out Samus. Interestingly enough, this is the first meeting between Cloud and Mario since 2002 where Mario used the power of Super Mario Sunshines release and a rally to defeat Cloud. For several contests after, Cloud showed that he would easily defeat Mario in a rematch. Fast forward 16 years and the match has become a bit more debatable.

With the way Mario defeated Sephiroth earlier this contest it is hard to imagine him struggling with Cloud, I doubt many of us would take Cloud to reach around 60% before SFF against Sephiroth. Clouds performance against Crono however, is probably not too far on what I would expect Mario to do. Cloud did have Super Smash Bros. 4 to boost his strength which would help him against Crono, but with Mario that may not be the case. I do feel a bit bad for Cloud fans; if he were to lose here, I doubt he would defeat Mario until possibly the Final Fantasy VII remake.

charmander6000s Bracket: Solid Snake > Crono

charmander6000s Prediction: Mario wins, 52.15% - 47.85%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Quarter on (4) Cloud Strife (+6)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

BANK (this is Cloud/Mario)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Mario - 52.15%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Go Cecil!

Also Magikarp will win...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

KamikazePotato posted...

If you take out Sephiroth/Ryu, a lot of results line of very well. Might have just to more or less disregard that result when making stats.

How does Vincent/KOS-MOS hold up?
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

So now that the excitement has died down, I took a look at the stats posted so far, the only thing that seems really out of left field is everything behind Tifa/Sephiroth. What can we do there? Even if we use Mario/Seph and Tifa/Samus, that puts them at nearly the same level which still doesn't make sense to me, judging off of Ryu who has no reason to have dropped

Maybe Ryu is just that weak. He got around the same against Sephiroth as Amaterasu which suggested Sephiroth would rank at around Luigi strength which is sort of what we saw. It also correlates with MMX's performance against Ryu before the Draven rally began (I assume he would have lost a couple of percent points due to the European vote)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Probably still loses to Mario

Somehow...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

red sox 777 posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Mario was leading against Crono at midnight in 2003, not his fault CJayC started the poll early.

Mario is smart, he got CJayC to start the poll at 23:40 and end at 24:07 so it wouldn't look as bad. Although, I think the average poll start time in 2003 was around 23:50.....it fluctuated slightly every day but I don't know if we had any other matches longer than 24:05 or shorter than 23:55, except for Mario/Crono, which came in at 24:27.

Polls typically started up to 20 minutes early unless the previous match was close in which case the match went to midnight, anyone keeping an eye on the contest would have known that.
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Mario was leading against Crono at midnight in 2003, not his fault CJayC started the poll early.
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Link is reigning her in now...

That was some board vote...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Zelda doing well 60/40ing Link

Wait, what?
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

Mario wins and Zelda leads
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link

This is going to the final update!!!!
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

It was also made as a way to counter rallies as the rallied entrant would win the contest while the normal entrants can fight it out for second place.
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Match CXLVII: (1) Link vs. (4) Zelda

Current Contest Performance

Link
Defeated Ganondorf, 79.64% - 20.36%
Defeated Pikachu, 68.41% - 31.59%
Defeated Cloud Strife, 60.52% - 39.48%

Zelda
Defeated Ezio Auditore da Firenze, 75.33% - 24.67%
Defeated The Boss, 70.70%, 29.30%
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 63.32% - 36.68%
Defeated Aerith Gainsborough, 62.19% - 37.81%
Defeated Solid Snake, 50.32% - 49.68%
Defeated Sonic the Hedgehog, 56.45% - 43.55%
Defeated Mario, 50.91% - 49.09%

Analysis

Well, she did it. Zelda ran through the gauntlet and reached the final. You can blame Breath of the Wild, a bandwagon or rallies, but shes here. Sadly, her opponent will be Link. Link has also looked great in this contest, breaking 60% against Cloud for the very first time. This is likely the strongest unrallied entrant we will ever see relative to the rest of the field. Anyone you would suspect that could be ahead of Cloud is from Nintendo and would likely get SFF.

Speaking of SFF, I feel Zelda may hold up a lot better than some are expecting. While Ganondorf was still crushed he didnt have a bandwagon going for him and besides, Zelda is likely stronger than Ganondorf. I doubt she will avoid SFF altogether unless Legend of Zelda fans decide to back the princess in this one, but I do feel she will clear 30% without too much issue.

charmander6000s Bracket: Link > Solid Snake

charmander6000s Prediction: Link wins, 65.94% - 34.06%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Quarter on (1) Link (-28)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Link
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Link - 65.94%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Given what Snake did to Auron and Sonic in the loser's bracket you'd have to argue that any bandwagon effect happened between the Sonic and Mario matches. It's still possible that it happened. I think it was more rSFF, but the same result would have happened...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

red sox 777 posted...

I really want to say that Samus is worth more than the 53% Tifa/Sephiroth says she is worth on him indirectly. But I guess that would require Sephiroth to rSFF Tifa? Or maybe the Samus/Snake Smash SFF is real.

I wouldn't count out Cloud though. Zelda has looked really really good, and if Link got a third of the boost Zelda did, no one is breaking 40% on Link.

Well at best she's worth 56-57% indirectly against Mario, based on what she did against Snake and if you assume no bandwagon effect from Zelda against Mario. Though if you are arguing rSFF in Mario/Samus then it isn't a stretch to argue for one in Zelda/Mario
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Cloud
Mario
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Cloud Strife - 56.73%
Mario - 51.42%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Match CXLIII: (8) Mega Man vs. (5) Crono

Current Contest Performance

Mega Man
Lost to Pikachu, 49.89% - 50.11%
Defeated Ganondorf, 60.03% - 39.97%
Defeated Pikachu, 50.67% - 49.33%

Crono
Defeated Bowser, 54.88% - 45.12%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 43.27% - 56.73%
Defeated Bowser, 54.75% - 45.25%

Analysis

Mega Man was successfully able to get his revenge against Pikachu, winning his rematch and regaining his honor. Cronos rematch against Bowser went almost the same way it did the first time with Crono finishing only 0.13% away from his original performance. The loser of this match will arguably be the weakest Noble Nine character of the bunch, with only Sonic having something to say.

In my mind this comes down to who would you take between Bowser and Yoshi. In my head the pair are essentially equal with Bowser having the kicker should they ever meet in a rematch. Both characters have had their ups and downs over their contest history. Clouds performance against Link would suggest Crono has the advantage, but with Pikachu suffering SFF against Link it wouldnt take too much for Mega Man to pull ahead. Im still going for Crono, but I suspect this match will be close.

charmander6000s Bracket: Cloud Strife > Mega Man

charmander6000s Prediction: Crono wins, 50.72% - 49.28%




Match CXLIV: (3) Solid Snake vs. (2) Samus Aran

Current Contest Performance

Solid Snake
Lost to Zelda, 49.68% - 50.32%
Defeated Auron, 61.48% - 38.52%
Defeated Sonic the Hedgehog, 57.53% - 42.47%

Samus Aran
Defeated Tifa Lockheart, 58.93% - 41.07%
Lost to Mario, 48.58% - 51.42%
Defeated Tifa Lockheart, 58.58% - 41.42%

Analysis

With the way Zelda/Mario is going this should be a great match. On paper this means Solid Snake has the advantage, but there are other things to consider that could give Samus the victory. First, I think we have to consider Zelda potentially having a bandwagon effect. While Solid Snake has held his own since his loss to Zelda that still gives Zelda an opportunity to have gain a bandwagon since that match.

Also, if you believe in the power of rSFF then it is possible we saw it in both Zelda/Mario and Mario/Samus which would make it harder for Solid Snake to hold on to the victory. I think it is quite possible that Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario. This would give her the edge here, even if Zelda going even with Mario is her new natural strength. Overall Snake has a great chance at winning and on an unadjusted stats he would win, but I feel there are too many external factors working against him.

charmander6000s Bracket: Samus Aran > Sonic the Hedgehog

charmander6000s Prediction: Samus Aran wins, 51.63% - 48.37%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Quarter on (5) Crono (-1)
Quarter on (3) Solid Snake (+6)
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Crono
Samus
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Crono - 50.72%
Samus - 51.63%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

charmander6000 posted...

Just give it up Zelda!

She's not giving it up...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Just give it up Zelda!
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Haha, Zelda...
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CBX - Today's Winner: Solid Snake

Match CXLII: (4) Zelda vs. (7) Mario

Current Contest Performance

Zelda
Defeated Ezio Auditore da Firenze, 75.33% - 24.67%
Defeated The Boss, 70.70%, 29.30%
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 63.32% - 36.68%
Defeated Aerith Gainsborough, 62.19% - 37.81%
Defeated Solid Snake, 50.32% - 49.68%
Defeated Sonic the Hedgehog, 56.45% - 43.55%

Mario
Defeated Sephiroth, 59.25% - 40.75%
Defeated Samus Aran, 51.42% - 48.58%

Analysis

I think a lot more people need to be hyped about this match. Zelda has had an amazing run through the bracket and I am not 100% sure it ends here, ignoring the losers bracket. Her general performance is not too far from what I would expect Mario to do, even if you take into account that most of her opponents had reason the be weaker this year.

With that said, Mario has also shown his strength. Even against a weaker Sephiroth, I doubt most people would take Squall or Aerith against him and while he didnt SFF Samus, defeating her still requires a great deal of strength. This does feel like one of those matches where Zelda will get close, but fail to win. Though if you do want in invoke hierarchies Zelda could potentially pick up enough Nintendo votes to create an all-Legend of Zelda final.

charmander6000s Bracket: Solid Snake > Mario

charmander6000s Prediction: Mario wins, 53.28% - 46.72%
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CBX - Today's Winner: Link