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To me the plot is mostly just Kratos being angry. For good reason and all but yeah. Aesthetically it's nice and exciting but it's not really my thing. Does what it needs to and little more.

Agatha is a cool twist but like to me the character is really dull.

Loki
Hawkeye

Long term capital gains are what you should aim for with portfolios that size

In

You have a lot of the people I'd be interested in playing with ignored so I must decline despite having a bit of a mafia itch lately

I decided to do two draws on banner 3

3/11 Zack Dual, Onion Awakening x2
5/11 Zack Glintx2, Onion Limit, Zack Dyad, TIDUS DUAL YES

Honestly hard for those to have gone better. My Zack is pretty legit now with all those goodies and really wanted that Tidus Dual Awakening. That's why I was drawing!

At this point you might want to just wait for the Tyde announcement to actually hit and swing trade it. *shrug. Do what you feel safe with. I just think one of these days we're getting a massive gap up and you want to be in before that point for the lowest risk gain. Like I do not recommend buying above $5. It could go way above $5 but it'll be so rocky I think you'd be stopped out. Right now the price action is really chill. Just methodically going up.

So for the record in January it started really moving Jan 12, 1.5 weeks from the Jan 21 chain popping. If the pattern holds this Tuesday or Wednesday it'd start moving (4/14 is a Thursday). It peaked the first day of the week of option expiry. Last day to announce Tyde for 4/14 record date is Monday so those two could overlap nicely.

Anyway barring news I'm looking to flip most of my April Options on 4/11. With Tyde news hold for gold, but yeah.

$3.02

Massive statement I think. Huge week coming next week. I did lose money on my degenerate calls but not much. Bought for $0.03 sold for $0.02. Lost $47.

Hugging $3 for the past 30 minutes. High drama. Lots of fuckery being employed to keep this down right now I think.

A surge of volume could pop this so hard. Not sure there are enough eyes though.

Dr Octopus
Batista

Also bought 27 3c for today. Truly degenerate. Feel like getting back to the $3.15 range isn't out of the question though. The price drop today is 100% fake so if no one bites it might be too hard to hold it below $3 and if it gets cleanly above $3 I expect yesterday's prices to resurface. We'll see.

Now if I had infinite funds I'd absolutely be buying shares here. It's just safer. Alternatively the 2.5c April 22 is very very very reasonably priced right now as it breaks even at $3.10. Hell the 2c is even better as it breaks even at $3.

But with a high conviction play multiplying is going to be better with low cash flow going in.

Maximizes value to shoot below where you think it's going if option prices are cheap.

3.5c costs me $10 a contract. If it goes to $6 that's 30x gain. The 4/22 costs me $28 a contract so that would only be around 10x gain.
5.5c is closer to where I think it's going to be, and costs me $3 a contract. If it goes to $6 I still make money but it's only 15x gain.

If I'd held the 3c July they had market value of around $70, so they would only 4x. I still have a lot in July/October/Jan 2023 without them so figured liquidating them would be ok.

Technically I think it's going to $7 or $8 but yeah. $6 feels like a good floor since that's where January got to.

I decided to liquidate my 3c July 2022 at 20% gain to put more on closer stuff because this dip is so fake.

27 3.5c next week
23 5c next week
21 3.5c 4/22

Moonroof posted...

I just am unsure whether BBIG will ever go up let alone by 4/14

There is no news we actually need. Run up by 4/14 will happen on open interest on the April 14 chain alone.

The question is whether you believe the pump and dump that happened January will repeat. I think it will because the mechanics are the same. If you're not convinced, then stay away I guess. Think it's an easy double from where it's at by 4/14 though. I wish I had more money to throw at it.

For perspective it's being dumped on news that BBIG is delaying earnings until 2 weeks after the report is due.

Something they'd done literally every earnings since the company has been public

So it's just more manipulation that is theoretically backed by "news" so they're being more aggressive with it to scare off uninformed investors.

Yep. Probably goes back up to $2.99 before end of day, so right now it's oversold.

If it's above $3.01, very bullish.

Happy for Cloud's hero gear. Makes my auto labyrinth team much quicker as now Cloud can instacast Sentinel instead of Vincent doing it and taking forever to do his omni imperil sync.

Uhh I kinda feel I'm a little spiritual but the implication of that word might be stronger than what I actually am, but I voted that.

Basically I think there are things we don't understand that could be theoretically be explained by some spiritual forces or by auras, energy, vibrations, whatever. But it could also be completely scientific as plum was saying.

I also think most traditional religion I find in the United States without digging is nonsense that is just a form of control and/or fundraising so it's kinda off the table.

But if I really felt lost in life I do think digging into religions would be something I'd do. No doubt. It's definitely possible some religion out there sounds more right than most of the stuff I've come across in Catholicism, Christianity, Mormonism, Jehovah's Witness stuff etc etc-- like what little I know of eastern religions like Buddhism and Taoism definitely interests me, but I can't really say I've delved into it enough to have an informed opinion.

Hahahahaha

I'm dying. Legit. Good thing I'm not working at an office.

Amazing.

"Diapers" is that an actual thing lmao

Easily Skyrim. Over 200 hours on it, all wasted on side quests and experimenting with mods, never beat the main campaign. Probably never will either. I lost the PC with my mod setup and don't really want to go through the headache of doing it over.

FFX-2 is a distant second place with 4 started playthroughs. Probably got around 40 hours on it all attempts considered. Stuff comes up and I'm not driven to continue.

After that you'd be looking at difficult games that I never got through. However about 7 years ago I went through the NES library and made a point to beat ghosts from my childhood-- Double Dragon 1, Double Dragon 3, Bionic Commando, Mike Tyson's Punch Out, Ninja Gaiden 1, Ninja Gaiden 2 so as far as actual good unbeaten games go on this front there wouldn't be much left, so probably nothing I'd have more than a few hours on.

If you can hold bbig through this you can hold anything

No pressure. Not financial advice. Do what you're comfortable with. Just be willing to hold through 4/14 that's all I ask (with no Tyde news youll want to sell a bit before, but seems like the easiest double in the world). Otherwise don't bother playing. Probably don't put the whole portfolio in this time though I feel like that makes you too skittish to hold if we get pushed below $3 (I don't think we get pushed below $3 but never underestimate the market maker's greed)

Lol biotech style stop loss raid its getting real now.

As for why I think it's very low risk now it's all the options pump. Thinking we double next week pretty easily based entirely on institutions pumping their calls and hedging by the market maker. Tyde announcement happening before 4/14 is just immense upside.

Anyway so here is what I expect to happen with the stock.

No Tyde announcement before 4/14 - stock probably pumps to around $7-$8 minimum then possibly dumps like how it did in Jan. I will definitely be cashing out lots of 4/14 options if it pumps before Tyde announcement. Not going to assume anything.

Tyde announcement before 4/14 - option chain will still pump, but now you get more incentive to not dump. I would be optimistic to reach ATH before 4/14.

Tyde announcement with record date 4/14 - honestly thinking the whole current option chain goes in the money. Serious. I would not sell any until well into double digits and would be looking to make most of my options into shares to get as much Tyde as I can.

These are all based on historic prices. Jan pump was all options, in a smaller chain, and got to $6. A bigger chain I expect to go higher (especially since warrants under $9 have all been cashed out). October runup from $5-$9 was all RUMOR of Tyde.

I have 10s of thousands of dollars at risk here. Could have sold at modest profits a few times. But I believe in this, so I'm going to see it through.

No. We're still guessing on Tyde's exact date. Based on how spinoffs tend to go they tend to resolve pretty swiftly after a second amendment, generally speaking. Average time for a spinoff to pan out tends to be 90-150 days, we're rapidly approaching 150 (believe it's tomorrow). We've also seen the last amendment and it was much shorter than the other and seemed to answer basically all of the questions. That was over 2 weeks ago now.

The spinoff pays dividend in the form of Tyde shares. The key is Tyde is a very small float stock that isn't currently listed (the entire float is going to come from this dividend). In theory, this will force the closing of most short shares as short sellers need to pay the dividend (in practice they can not pay and start Short Tyde, but that's very risky-- also synthetic/naked shorts will be forced to be covered before the dividend, which will drive the price up if you believe it's happening-- which given the price action I absolutely do)

As for the dividend it's almost certainly happening and soon-- timing is the only issue right now. If you could time it for April 14th you would force people to not be short on the 14th which is the option expiry window which would feed into an absolutely massive options chain. That options chain will be fed into regardless of if we have the date (the January run up was entirely options driven and was a much smaller chain) but the synergy with forcing short covering and absurdly stacked options (about 30% of the float is contained in options under $10)

But you require an 8-10 day window from announcement to spinoff date, so it would need to be announced Monday at the latest for record date on the 14th. If the announcement is done at any date before the 14th it's still quite good, but record date on the 14th would be completely ridiculous for the price.

What a crazy close. 180k thick walls from each cent, $3.20 to $3.25. If there wasn't anything to be excited about you wouldn't see this insanity.

Hela
Thor

Keep in mind I think we run up to 8 either way just on the option chain without Tyde

With Tyde backing that option chain though I have no freaking idea. Especially since this week is now really dense from 3-4.

Tyde spinoff announcement AH with record date April 14 will bring maximum price action.

At this point if you think it's going to happen and we aren't going to get timed out by the SEC, it's the time to get in. I believe the latest possible day for the announcement is Monday to hit that April 14 target for record date on option day, but realistically if we don't see by Monday AH, record date will be after April 14th. Still potentially painful for shorts if the record date is announced at any time before the 14th, but not absolutely monstrous like it would be on the 14th

Got 70 3.5c for tomorrow just in case.

Loki
Hawkeye

neonreaper posted...

If you can't deal with others, same.

Which I mean, that's what I intend to do and I'm not calling for a community ban or anything.

But enough games like that and it would completely justified. Like to me if Crescent was scum aligned that kind of gaslighting shit should be modkillable. More slack because she's town and she's got some mental issues to deal with so you know it's not a play per se, but it gets really dicey.

Better to be proactive about trying to function better than to say everyone has to play around you. Because eventually if you dont improve your behavior they simply won't.

Ulti's jump was the best. I think the comedy was that it was right at the start of the day and followed with a STOP

What a great ability

My point is you can help things on your end. You always can. Even if just a bit.

If you hand someone some kid's gloves and say "hey could you wear these, it would help me out" you'll have a lot more success than hitting someone in the hand with a hammer, dropping some kid's gloves, and grunting at them and pointing at the gloves.

It's a two way street. We have to work to understand when she is a jerk that it's hard and you're going to have some times where you slip up, but she has to try and not be a jerk when possible-- I'm not even a little convinced the latter is being attempted at the moment. Not with the way she is expressing herself here. That's why I'm not coddling and just cutting to the heart of the matter-- trying to be as nice as I can be about it while still being able to get my point across.

I'm not saying Crescent is mentally unhealthy to the point where we should be concerned.

I'm saying her attitude about it is unhealthy. She's not going to grow as a person if she thinks what she's doing is okay, even if that makes her feel better.

The proper response is not "it's okay" the proper response is "it's not okay, but that's okay." It's an important distinction.

I mean I'm not saying Crescent is being dishonest but like for some perspective the first thing she did to explain her actions was talk about being multipersonality etc etc.

There's a fine line between knowing you have a problem and using a problem as an excuse. A diagnosis is worthless if you're not using that knowledge to try and help yourself.

Strongly identifying with a mental condition in and of itself can be toxic and a self-fulfilling prophecy to some level. You can't let it control you. A disability is not a license to be a jerk, it's a license to be forgiven for being a jerk. Ultimately you should still try to avoid being one.

My problem is the post I'm referring to wasn't even addressing it as a problem to overcome but just "this is how I am, deal with it" which to me feels more like she's not identifying her disability in a way that helps her grow but rather as I said using it as a crutch to get a free pass for being socially stunted, which isnt helping anyone.

And listen I'm sorry if I'm triggering anything here. Legitimately I just want it out there so you can try and make it better, Crescent.

No one is going to take an argument where you attack someone's character seriously. Just straight up. So it doesn't help you win the game. Further, if it is entirely just one person out to get you they probably wouldn't be able to convince town.

And if they do, it's nothing personal. We've all been lynched as town, even the mighty Chris just last game. Sometime it's just random chance.

Like if you identify and try to deescalate, games will probably be more fun for everyone, yourself included.

I mean here's the thing

I suspect scare is probably never going to sign up for a game with Crescent in it again

I can confirm I won't. I don't want to deal with being called a misogynist for thinking someone is scum. Like I honestly do think I could probably play around it but seeing how Crescent was acting in this game, seemingly making no effort to keep herself in check, it just doesn't seem like it'd be fun.

If you don't think that's a problem in a dwindling mafia community, I don't know what to tell you.

Like it's okay to have an anxiety problem, but you shouldn't use it as a crutch either. My mother had crippling anxiety to the point where she couldn't get hired for jobs, and I had a long time roommate and a girlfriend with pretty bad anxiety, so I know a bit about it, things not to do, and such. Identifying that no one is attacking you and it's just a game could do wonders. Trying to stop yourself from making those accusations when they come to mind will pre-emptively de-escalate things-- the problem isn't that Crescent feels these things but that she lashes out at people when she does which makes everything worse.

It's not that you can't do anything to make things better, it's just harder. Don't let your disability define you.

I admit being wrong pretty often actually. Hell I just said in this topic I was reading the game completely wrong.

You can be right or you can be introspective. Your choice.

I don't care about historical data I'm just talking about as a reader of the game.

I mean you almost made Corrik leave the game the last day. And Corrik was probably the biggest driving force in solving the last day. Think about it.

Crescent-Moon posted...

And sorry but he suicided out of the game and we were better off when we were pretending like he never existed in the game to begin with. No one was the outright waste of a player slot that he was.

I wasn't making commentary on his quality of play more you railroading the game into yourself and trying to play the victim when people suspect you.

It's just really poor form. I wouldn't really have a lot of fun playing in that kind of environment either to be honest. You need to not take mafia suspicion personally. It's a game.

1. Imbalanced setup a bit. Scum needed help imo. I thought the vote good/bad was going to make him somehow able to become scum aligned. I think that would have been a bit better. I think I just don't like the observer role in general though.

2. I kept thinking Chris was scum trying to leash crescent. Couldn't get that out of my head. Seemed to make more sense to test that claim day 1 I think.

3. Game was very awkward for me to read in a lot of places. I 100% agree with Scare btw.

Only thing I remember about this game is how Kain said the name of every item when you would click it in your inventory

Much fun was had making him say "The Heart of Darkness" repeatedly.

That's all I got.

Well expected that result when I missed the round. Oh well!

Sephiroth in KH1 and KH2 are top picks for me by far

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Comedy is about being funny, referencing a 30 year old movie to make fun of someones hair isnt really funny? (Not super offensive in the grand scheme, but still, its not a good joke.)

Yes

But if people are overly concerned about not offending people potentially good material is lost, and comedy shouldn't feel afraid to step on some toes within reason.

Like I said I think Chris Rock is bad more often than not, but if that joke is off the table for being "offensive!!!" you probably take a lot of actual good jokes out too.

Like losing the joke is no big deal, but that's only because the joke was bad. An actual good joke where Jada's baldness is referenced, well why not? It's hardly something that should be a no fly zone. It's just not really that offensive no matter how much some people want to virtue signal about it.