Lurker > Vengeful_KBM

I still can't reconcile almost anything Nana has done in the game at this point. I could be persuaded to go after MI but this seems like a game that potentially has power overload on both sides. We don't know what scum has that might theoretically even be more powerful than a roleblocker. Occam's razor, they could have a roleblocker and have just been blocking Death since the beginning of the game.

In any case, as I said, my read on Death was soft and I could definitely be persuaded that MI is the more likely scum of the two. Hell, it could also be Red. All I'm sure about is that Nana pretty much has to be scum in every configuration that I can see. His weird conspiracy theory that Han's lynch was "planned" and the fake anger we're seeing today is only solidifying that read.

You'll have to forgive me for not seeing how this implicates MI right away, I was pretty tired after compiling those posts; you can't expect me to muster all the energy for new information. Scare's role seems brokenly powerful in a way that I would absolutely expect scum to have a roleblocker. Nana is still the scummiest person in the room, though.

Agreed, let's hear it

having the courtesy

Tzar Nicholas II

That said my read on Death is a softer one based mostly on interactions with Han and Chris, so Death being town is definitely not outside the realm of possibility imo.

I see nothing in particular to indicate they necessarily have to have one.

And yeah, if you want the tl;dr version of my posts, just Control-F the ** symbol and you'll get an adequate Spark Notes summary of my strongest feelings through all that.

My strongest suspicion outside Nana is Death.

TOPIC 6

Nanahara715 posted...

Morning observations.

Boko has yet to make a vote a full 104 hours into the game.

I would be voting for KBM whose only posting the entire day was 22 hours ago and directed to me responding to my accusation calling her scum, responding by acting incredulous when I called her obtuse. There's no engagement since yesterday morning.

That said, the scales have tipped over the town point on Chris for me. I support the VI lynch fully for the same stuff Chris said, which is parallel to the logic on my initial vote.

MI - also a town read, but more in the middle. I'm tying him to dowolf (i.e. Scum/scum or town/town)

Scum in order of certainty- VI, KBM, Boko, one of Dowolf/Puns (but I don't think both), and either Han or Jeff

Another one to add to the collection of Bad Nana Posts, right at the beginning of a topic. Han calls Death's suspicion of him "random" and "underhanded". Chris then defends Death, while Nana goes on record as one of the only people in the game who actively likes Shad as town (lol) in Post #51. This coming right after his enthusiastic review of Chris as town. **Yikes at all of this.**

Dowolf thinks the D1 lynch was town/town/town (which it in all likelihood was) and goes on to attack VI for it. Worth noting that maybe we should listen to confirmed town Dowolf here. I still like VI's position on Shad though, so maybe not!

In my interaction with Chris in the middle of the topic it really does feel like he's trying to "slip me up" somehow - I don't know what his plan was but it didn't go the way he wanted it to so he dropped it. MI/Red/Leo/Puns then all go after Shad at once. **Good job there.**


TOPIC 7

Chris briefly tries to drive things back VI's way with Shad's claim out of the way - aligning himself with Nana who has not budged from VI the whole day. **VI looking better here.** Worth noting, though, that VI never actually voted Shad, just Death and dowolf.

Red suggests specialing Han - the second B8 special he's suggested in as many days on now-confirmed scum. **Red is also looking quite a bit better upon rereading.**

Chris is unwilling to entertain the possibility that Puns and VI are the same alignment which kind of makes me think they're the same alignment, considering the way Chris played this game.


-DAY 3 starts here-

Jack seems more believable now that I've got a firmer idea of what night actions may or may not have actually happened - MI telling the truth about the bus drive on Stan fits the narrative. I still don't really have much to say about D3, it was very straightforward; re-reading the earlier days was way more interesting than this.


TOPIC 8

Nana really sticks out as a non-factor towards the end of D2/beginning of D3. Didn't budge from VI the whole of Day 2. Pops in after awhile to offer a token "maybe Shad is town!" here, which I kinda hate:

Nanahara715 posted...

*dances*

MI says Shad took no actions.

Death claims roleblocked.

If Shad is town, the only way he took no action is if he was roleblocked [by scum]. So if Shad flips town, then Death is necessarily scum lying about being roleblocked.

Still think KBM is scum. Been saying this since the end of day 1.

And yet he hadn't voted me a single time which is just weird considering I was one of his favorite subjects that whole time.

So yeah, pretty much all of my observations have led me to believe fairly strongly that Nana is scum.

##Vote: Nana

-DAY 2 starts here-

Chris comes out swinging at Puns – seriously, I will be kind of shocked if Puns isn't dead in the morning; with Chris opening D2 with a Puns vote, *everyone* going after him in any meaningful way up to this point was the scum that have flipped so far. Nana chimes in soon afterwards to express support for either a Puns or a KBM lynch. Then we have a Leo/Chris exchange about "what would you ask FFD if you could" that really doesn't feel like scum fucking around with each other, despite the fact that Chris has an answer ready to vindicate Leo's claim in less than a minute - seriously what staged scum exchange would be that transparent?


TOPIC 5

At this point I'm already starting to get into 'confirmation bias' territory on Puns, but him fighting with Chris feels genuine on his part. MI brought up some reasonable suspicions on me but backed down on them on a second read-through, which I feel like scum wouldn't have bothered to do after bringing up good points.

Nanahara715 posted...

My Immortal posted...

Nanahara715 posted...

VeryInsane posted...

Hm, Nana had his vote on Chris for quite some time and didn't really move it IIRC even when he stopped suspecting him

What was up with that

I stopped suspecting Chris?

So this is reading to me now like scum-Nana who forgot that he started dialing back on suspecting Chris.

As I said above, I know exactly what I said and I said what I meant and I meant what I said.

An interesting exchange here between still-living players that might take new meaning if/when one of them flips.

Han then calls me "Anakin from Episode 2" which is still ridiculous.

**Leo and MI being the first people to go after Shad on D2 looks very good on them**; meanwhile Death jumps on town dowolf immediately after the pressure on Shad begins. **The timing of Death's vote to put dowolf in the lead looks pretty bad.**

Then Nana votes VI. If I assume I'm right about Nana the tone of his post (#222) really doesn't feel like he's voting a scumbuddy, although either way the vote is interesting. Then **Boko says he trusts Jeff and MI.** Boko's reads have been very good in hindsight. Also at this point I'm beginning to think that if Puns isn't the target for scum's shot, Jeff probably will be.

Okay, I took some detailed notes on everything from Topic 3 through the end of Day 3. Here they are in more readable form so that everybody knows where I'm coming from today. (These are almost verbatim the notes I took to myself, just attempting to have better syntax, grammar, and punctuation. Typed stream-of-consciousness style through a couple hours' worth of close reading this afternoon, so you don't want to see the original, it would hurt your eyes.)

Double-asterisks indicate my strongest feelings.

TOPIC 3

Death goes after dowolf very early. He also goes after Jeff to try and make him "slip" over knowing about the term "backpedaling" of all things.

Han pops in briefly to interact with Death and MI. Death does an ISO of Han and says he looks better for it. Death then ISOs VI and says he looks good too. The feeling is not mutual.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

htaeD posted...

KBM, you did willingly engage with FFD in a lot of that nostalgia talk yes?

This is something I noticed early on and I'm still surprised that a lot of people think KBM is Town.


Vengeful_KBM posted...

I reread Han's analysis of Stan's first topic posts and though it didn't totally convince me Stan is scum,

Like this, come on, total Scumbuddies.

Meanwhile here's a quote from Scum Han trying to push suspicion on me earlier than I even remembered, wow.

Meanwhile Chris is threatening to hurt anyone who votes Nana. Han led the lynch on Stan while MI sort of de facto spearheaded the lynch on Nana - in a way that is making me trust MI more. Han is also trying to throw a lot of suspicion on Red which makes Red look a little better.

Meanwhile (yes I use this word a lot) Shad and Han both spearheading the Puns lynch from early on makes Puns look really good now, to the point where I'm kind of expecting him to die tonight. This also diverted attention from the Nana lynch option at the end of the day - **Nana is looking bad on a reread of the end of D1. Puns seems QUITE clean now that Shad and Han have both flipped scum.** Also MI is putting in a lot of town-looking legwork at the end of the day, compiling posts of information and whatnot.

TOPIC 4

Worth noting that the people who waited to vote until the end of the day are a VERY town-heavy list, quite possibly all town. Scum was leading the D1 lynches, outside of the Nana lynch which was being led by MI (probable town) and myself. Meanwhile Nana goes after me hard for "believing the exchanges between [Nana] and FFD were faked" which still strikes me as a weird and useless line of questioning, after this VERY clear answer:

Vengeful_KBM posted...

Nanahara715 posted...

True/false I'm your number 1 scum read

False. I've been vacillating back and forth. An actually true statement would be "you have remained on my list and I would be willing to lynch you based on current information".

Nana is continuing to look worse in retrospect. He goes on to accuse me of "refusing" to take a stance directly after I said the above (which was literally taking a stance).

Then dowolf almost gets lynched D1 by MI/VI/puns/Leo. Interesting how all of them are still alive. Don't know what that means though.

People threatening to B8 Special Shad: Red, VI. Clearly would have been a better option - points in their favor.

Other than bitching at me, Nana does nothing of substance towards the end of the day, probably because he knows the main lynch candidates by that point (FFD/Puns/Dowolf) are all town and there's no reason for him to intervene outside of a couple token posts.

When Zeus looked

##Vote: Nana

Maybe we really actually should have though.

Yeah that Nana post was more defensive than anything I've said this whole game, wow.

My Immortal posted...

For the record, I only quoted one Chris post with her, said it felt like she was being coached by her there, and didn't call her scum for it. But I'm apparently spinning her interactions in an attempt to get this mislynch when I'm still re-reading things and trying to figure shit out. This feels more defensive that what Han called defensive earlier.

I mean I guess it was something that was said since my list because I thought this was a really good point and made me reevaluate the assumptions I'd made.

My Immortal posted...

What have I done today to change your opinion?

It's more a reevaluation than anything you've done since I made my initial post.

There are people I trust in this game and have town reads on but I can't say I have as strong feelings about anyone in the negative, so it's all a stretch in terms of absolutely wanting to lynch anybody.

I'm beginning to get mildly suspicious now that VI and Han are the two vanillas who supposedly have justification for their roles in their PMs.

BUT I'm not gonna let myself jump too far down that rabbit hole

bng_mmmk posted...

Can you articulate your gut feeling about red?

It's based on years-old hazy memories, but I know I've played in games in the past where Red was scum, and I just have been having the nagging feeling that his play here is similar to what it was there. I also have been vacillating on what the interactions between him and Chris mean.


bng_mmmk posted...

And is there more to your suspicion of VI than the fact he's pressuring you and you think Chris's scum team would pressure you in this situation?

Ehhh. not as such. Again, I feel like I should have way stronger feelings about people at this point in the game and I'm just kinda not. Hence wanting to read through the game overnight (within reason - I probably won't bother with the first couple topics).

I will say that if we lynch Han here and he's scum, I will feel significantly better about Red.

It would be kind of hilarious if that was a copy/paste from the scumboard

...Because the other two choices are someone I feel is town and me?

Also I know in this situation Chris would likely be instructing his scummates to go after me, since he knows I'm generally a really soft target as a vanilla (I admit, to my shame, it does take a lot more energy for me to provide any content when that's what I am), so if I came off defensive earlier in the day, it's probably at least partially because of a small suspicion that people who are going after me are being told to.

MI has looked better, VI has continued to look bad and is probably my #1 choice for a lynch right now if I could choose anybody.

The rest of my reads have stayed pretty constant, apart from Han taking a slight turn for the scummier based on both the reads of people I trust are town, and his continuing aloofness/irritability.

Nope, just explains who the character is and then a generic description of the vanilla role.

Leo3L posted...

Paraphrase your flavor for me?

Randyll Tarly - Head of one of Mace Tyrell's most powerful military families, got rid of his son Samwell in order to bring honor to the family name. Shades of irony in the write-up regarding Sam's return in the book.

That's basically it.

I've been withholding my lynch because I wanted to let others decide what the major choices were. I'm going to do a reread of the whole game during the night to see if I can get my bearings more for Day 5. It's been taking more energy than I anticipated to keep up with all the different possible actions and whatnot.

Han is the right choice for today's lynch, but I don't see any benefit in ending the day early. If anybody has anything in particular they want me to say/answer before the deadline, I am around now!

I stand by the FFD lynch being the right thing to do.

I have been reading old posts! Mostly old Chris posts to try and get more of a bearing on who he said what about.

I guess the syntax of that sentence still doesn't work.

OH WELL NOT IMPORTANT >_<

Vengeful_KBM posted...

The more I look back on things, the more I like the Han lynch - because their arguments make sense, because I trust the people on it more than others in the game, even if I wasn't able to come up with a read of my own on him.

Fixed that - I just didn't type a part of the sentence I wanted to say lol

The more I look back on things, the more I like the Han lynch - because their arguments make sense, even if I wasn't able to come up with a read of my own on him. He's one of our better options today, at least, although I still wouldn't mind a VI lynch either (I've cooled on the whole MI thing; clearly I was misreading things).

I would apologize for my activity but it would be redundant at this point. It does feel like people are blowing off the things I'm actually saying though and not really being very responsive to them, at the same time as claiming I haven't talked about anything. My thoughts may not be the most solid reads in the known world, but I have been keeping people at least somewhat posted on them! I'm a better sneak than I am a sleuth, sadly.

Jeff Zero posted...

Vengeful_KBM posted...
Yeah he literally referenced an over three-year-old PM. If nothing else, Leo definitely has free and willing access to Stan.


And there's no scum role in which they can recruit dead town, right? Or is there? I remember some chatter about that earlier.

Nothing is impossible but I feel like this is something that's generally been frowned upon (someone confirm who's more current on setup meta than I am).

And yeah it's KCF's (still running) B8NFLL that I was in a few years back. I absolutely believe Stan is behind that information.

Yeah he literally referenced an over three-year-old PM. If nothing else, Leo definitely has free and willing access to Stan.

My Immortal posted...

Vengeful_KBM posted...

I... actually that checks out, Stan's not talking about fantasy sports lol.

Leo looks more town to me now.

Not just leo, but would anyone else still alive in the game have known that?

It would have to be someone with access to Stan's or my PMs.

I... actually that checks out, Stan's not talking about fantasy sports lol.

Leo looks more town to me now.

Leo3L posted...

Stan also has some anecdotes about fantasy sports with KBM not wanting to trade him a CB because she liked having CB depth

This is... questionable. Frankly I don't remember ever being in a fantasy league that had CB as a position, although I'm sure I have been in at least one B8 NFL fantasy league at some point so I suppose it's possible?

Oof, condolences. I was visiting Arizona once when the temperature got up to 117; it was not fun. Stay as air conditioned and hydrated as you can (although I'm sure you already plan to).

My Immortal posted...

Vengeful_KBM posted...

You may be on to something with Leo, though; Chris being the one who corroborated his role looks pretty bad.

...

...Hi!

What, is this a part of the argument you were making on Leo? I may have misread you.

Han you have seemed really irritable this whole game, don't deny it.

You may be on to something with Leo, though; Chris being the one who corroborated his role looks pretty bad.

In fact posts like that seem like largely what got people to *stop* focusing on Red and seek other avenues of play. I take back what I said about "Chris would never blatantly gloat about how easy it would be if he and Red were scum in a game where that was actually the case." It's looking to be more and more likely that that's actually what he did.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Dude, I've known the guy for like 16 years. I can tell when he is being genuine. He hasn't been playing a good game, I get that, but he is for sure genuine. Red can't fool me.

I mean yeah in this game you're getting stuff like this that I just came across, so the interactions are going to have no resemblance to those in a game where he got Red lynched.

red13n posted...

I don't know, I'd have to read it back again, but end of day 2 definitely felt to me like chris trying to push the game to its end. Scum is in such a favorable position and chris seemed very happy with how day 2 was coming to an end. I don't think it was a plot, I think his scheming had all be done with by the middle part of the day.

I don't like this interpretation, because at least when I was balancing games, it was unacceptable to design a game where it was even possible it would end that early.

OK if I do seem defensive you have to realize it's because this same shit is happening again. It already seems like I'm the leading lynch candidate and I don't know how to change people's minds on this without spinning a web of scum lies. The entire reason I stopped playing the game was because I kept getting called "defensive" and getting lynched when I rolled town, which was almost every time.

So yeah, again, there's a history here, and I apologize if everything is coming across as defensive. Although hell I realize part of the likely scenario here is that scum is going to take advantage of the fact that I'm coming off that way again. It just feels very familiar all of a sudden and thus I guess I'm preemptively bracing myself for the worst possible outcome.

Give me like an hour, I'll try to come back in a different mindset.

I don't feel like that's defensive. I'm just pointing out that you didn't read my post if you think I have a "clear picture of what it would require for JZ to be Scum" (your words).

Can you paint a clear picture of what it would require for JZ to be Scum at this point?

I did say he was "almost certainly town" and that that theory was "insane"; I don't know why you want me to work this conspiracy out right now. We have much better things to spend our time on than appeasing on paranoid piece of the back of my mind.HanOfTheNekos posted...

Alternative answer: no, I can't, but that doesn't mean it's not possible.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

The convoluted schemes necessary to put Jeff as Scum also rely on them trusting on Jeff to be the crux of it.

I mean Jeff is a smart guy who I would trust to follow Chris Instructions (which are very detailed and clear, as I can attest). I tend to agree that he's probably telling the truth but this doesn't mean anything.

Leo3L posted...

I mean

I don't think scum has to do much if you're town

I can't even remember what your current game opinions are

Maybe you can't remember even this far back but the last time I even got a serious chance to say something was two game days ago, so this shouldn't be wildly surprising. Weekends are a bitch for me, which I said when I signed up. I managed to make it work for the first weekend of the game, but I'm sorry my second weekend (which, again, I warned people ahead of time would be a serious challenge) doesn't meet with your approval.

Anyway, thoughts on the current state of the game. In fact, let's go one by one:

Puns - Probably town. The optics of the game have just worked better the whole time when I've made that assumption.

Han - I... don't know. He's seemed pointlessly irritable the whole game but I can't tell if it's an act or just "Han feeling irritable". No read.

Death - My gut earlier said that he was scum. He's my probable "sixth man" if we're assuming a six-man scumteam, but I could just as easily see him being town.

Jeff - Almost certainly town, unless Jeff shooting Chris was some kind of insane scum gambit to vindicate Jeff through to the end of the game. That small possibility keeps nagging at me, but that's something to pursue later (if there even is a later; I'm dreading this being a lylo situation).

Red - Probably scum. This is a gut feeling.

Leo - I have been mostly taking his claim as read, which is a read that only becomes stronger when MI tries to take it apart (see below). Town.

MI - Trying to spin my interactions with Chris into largely nonsensical points against me. I have said several times that my and Chris' interactions make sense regardless of our alignment so trying to pigeon-hole me into an alignment based on those interactions just because we have a flip on him is foolish. As I have said, I was prodding Chris a whole bunch of different ways to see how he would react, and had some material ready to use it against him on D3 so I could provide something. This admittedly looks horrible for me since I never got to use it and wasn't free apart from that, but there you go. I'm not entirely accustomed to him dying on N2 (although, again, my memory, I'm sure it's happened.) The icing on top of all of this is that to have a Jack on top of everything just feels like the last straw on the camel's back in terms of "power overload". My strongest scum read.

Nana - Town. I've seen nothing to change my mind back to my original read here - likely town Puns saying one of the two of us has to be scum doesn't really change that either, as I have to go with how I feel. He seems to genuine and too earnest in his cluelessness to be anything else (and if you are scum, well, you've played a surprisingly good game so good on you, but you're certainly not my target for today even though you probably expect to be).

VI - Pushing me very hard all of a sudden. I'm starting to think Chris might have been trying to pull one of his patented "lynches on a scum mate to make himself look better" with his insistence on the VI lynch at the end of Day 2.