Lurker > Not_Wylvane

Fuckin' despairing about years over here!
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Not_Wylvane

I think all the games are winners.

Hahaha back on the leaderboard for a whole two days. Had 2000 winning tomorrow so I'll be knocked off again but might as well enjoy it while it lasts!
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Not_Wylvane

The one time I used stats heavily in my decision making was the last character contest, and I ended up tied for second in Guru as a result.

(Also I forgot FF7 was in the finals of 2004 and not OoT, oops!)
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Not_Wylvane

UltimaterializerX posted...

yoblazer made a great point, as usual (love you bro). Melee is the only game to ever beat Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy 7 1v1. LOL x-stats would have never predicted how the 2015 contest played out.

Is that excluding OoT, or does the 2009 bonus match not count?
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Not_Wylvane

I don't know if KH2 would've won 2006 the match, but I think it would've at least made the match as close as today's was. If the top two pics were KH2 and TP, then I'd probably give it to 2006.

It's kinda messed up how important pics are for this contest and how arbitrarily they're chosen.
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Not_Wylvane

This is fucking sad.

If this were a character or games match we'd have gone through at least two topics by now.
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Not_Wylvane

Nanis23 posted...

FFDragon posted...

there's a close match?

huh

i feel like I should be excited but... nope

The only excitment in this contest can come wanting your bracket pick to win
I can't care about any year otherwise

My perfect hinges on this match yet I still don't feel nearly as invested as a close match even between two losers in the games/characters contests.
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Not_Wylvane

To think I'm possibly one pic of GSC away from getting a perfect bracket this contest.
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Not_Wylvane

For those leaderboard watching, I've got 2000 winning this one.
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Not_Wylvane

I'd love to see Melee/Brawl again in a future contest.
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Not_Wylvane

I didn't know there was a contest and I'm currently winning it!
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Not_Wylvane

Yeah, we wouldn't want Board 8 to be deprived of all of the new posters being brought in by the Best Year Contest!
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Not_Wylvane

LordoftheMorons posted...

Not_Wylvane posted...

What's the vote totals so far this contest? Kinda curious to see how my tiebreaker fares so far in case I get really lucky and 2000 kicks ass.

Assuming nothing changes it should end up being 600k ish (probably a bit lower)

Damn, and here I was thinking my rad prediction of 694200 was too low.
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Not_Wylvane

What's the vote totals so far this contest? Kinda curious to see how my tiebreaker fares so far in case I get really lucky and 2000 kicks ass.
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Not_Wylvane

Also I'm feeling really good now about having 2001 in the finals.
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Not_Wylvane

NUMBER

FUCKING

ONE

hell yeah
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Not_Wylvane

Rocket League is fun and good.

2006 really comes down to TP and KH2. Oblivion is the Brawl of TES now, nobody likes it over Skyrim or Morrowind, and the rest of the games are mediocre at best strength-wise on this site.

What's the x-stat rankings for Portal 2, Dark Souls, Okami, Gears of War, and FF12? Too lazy to back up my own arguments.
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Not_Wylvane

haloiscoolisbak posted...

If this result holds my round 1 was perfect! Stoked

Same!

My bracket's kinda precarious though because one of my semi's is 2001 > 2000, so I'll still need overall game strength to shine against some individual juggernauts. It's possible, but 96/GSC-less 2000 is pretty damn scary, and 95 and 97 are definitely no slouches either.
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Not_Wylvane

Woo, #4 now. Probably the highest I've been on the leaderboard in any contest.
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Not_Wylvane

Remember when all of the below stuff was relevant?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis, and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings (X-Stats) - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.

LPF - Last Place Factor, which a term used in matches that have three or four entrants. Usually when there is an obvious choice for last place, that entrant performs weaker than usual since voters are smart enough these dates to put their votes on something that matters. A good example is Link/Shepard/Draven.

ASV - After school vote, which is usually the biggest trend in a poll other than the first hour and the morning vote.
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Not_Wylvane

Persona 5 should be strong but that's definitely one I'd rather wait and see six-twelve months from now before I make a judgment call on its strength.

Meanwhile I already have no problem saying BotW > Skyrim in a GotD2 finals.
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Not_Wylvane

Draven Was An Inside Job
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Not_Wylvane

LeonhartFour posted...

Not_Wylvane posted...

I still think adding SF4 made that match a lot more interesting than watching TWEWY get fodderized.

I mean, SFIV got fodderized, too. What's the difference?

A hilarious battle for third place.

https://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3474-division-8-round-1-gta4-persona-4-sf4-ssbb

And this was back before Persona became a bigger presence in general. Plus I feel the entire reason Bacon did the Add/Remove thing to begin with was solely to sneak SF4 into the bracket since it was released in a weird time.
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Not_Wylvane

I still think adding SF4 and watching it struggle for third against Persona 4 made that match a lot more interesting than watching TWEWY get fodderized.

But yeah, Fire Emblem over Golden Sun and replacing SSB over other games was dumb.
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Not_Wylvane

Why the fuck is Edge #3 behind red-haired Cecil and Rosa. Edge sucks in the original game.
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Not_Wylvane

The box art was just a red background. The sprites are official artwork but weren't part of the US box art.
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Not_Wylvane

No GSC.

Thanks to Link 1988 might overperform, in that it might only get tripled.
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Not_Wylvane

My favorite prediction is nailing both Pikachu > Sora and Mega Man > Charizard in the most recent character battle. Got me tied for second in Guru that year!

e: If I have to pick only one then definitely Mega Man > Charizard. I was one of the few it seemed to take Charizard more at his Kratos match performance than as his Bowser/Mario performances.

e2: As for failed predictions I think I've only ever picked the correct winner like two or three times through every single contest.
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Not_Wylvane

Oh neat, I'm on the leaderboard. Guess we'll see how long that lasts!
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Not_Wylvane

Feel better about my tiebreaker.

I mean my bracket's going to lose horribly but hey.
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Not_Wylvane