Lurker > EDumey

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

I mean yall we're sheeping the hell outta lopen and he said he didn't want to kill Chris and would rather have Ulti in that spot. I agreed beacuse something didn't feel right with Ulti..

What do you mean sheeping the hell outta lopen. Half the day was Lopen arguing at us to look at the end of D1 with everyone arguing against him that it was a bad direction to go. So we agreed to compromise on Ulti, and then things developed from there.

AT NO POINT DID TOWN COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT WE WEREN'T LYNCHING CHRIS. You came up to that conclusion on your own.

Lopen posted...

Sultan is bugging me enough that I'm willing to 1v2 into him and Chris actually

I can be the bomb Dumey

I'm not sure it's the best play to dive into the only cop scan we have lol, but I'm for it with either you or me. Let me take a second to actually do the numbers so FD can yell at us appropriately later.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

Did you just claim scum??

No read it again. He's attacking the same thing I did last night. You said, "we're not killing Chris, so I might as well date him and get info out of it!" but we definitely could have had Chris in the pile if you weren't sheltering him.

Lopen posted...

Isn't that basically just claiming scum with Sultan if I do that and you flip town

Maybe, but I bet you'd like to try and do that and talk your way out of it afterwards rather than guarantee your death.

Plus like you said in response to someone last night, lynching one by one gives scum more control over night kills, rather than taking down the numbers we want.

Lopen posted...

Literally start of chat, and its funny THAT is what you got out of my story

It's not the ONLY thing I got out of it, just wanted to ask Isquen if it was a fair translation of the night.

Lopen posted...

I ended up finally townclearing Ulti due to how he and Dumey were reacting yesterday to end of day

It felt like Dumey was fishing for reasons to not break up and kept asking Ulti "hey bro you sure you'll be ok if we break up" and Ulti is like "yes break up I said that already"

And then Dumey didn't do it in the end without having Ulti to blame for it

Nah this is silly. I still preferred lynching Lea over Ulti, Red, or Kirby. If Kirby hadn't taken the Red date, I would have moved Ulti for it, but there was no need to. I DID genuinely have to do something at end of day that came up with my car. But I literally pulled to the side of the road to check into the topic 10 minutes before deadline to make sure I didn't need to do the swap. But I wasn't swapping claimed Vanilla for claimed Miller Lea at that point.

Lopen posted...

Dumey you still up for this

You can sub me for Chris if you'd like

I would like to go through the numbers a little more closely before settling for this, but yeah. Willing to trade for Sultan and you. The problem is that I think you just try to maneuver me into this setup and link up with Sultan to lynch me at the end. The thing about setting it up with Chris and Sultan was that they couldn't save each other at the end due to dating N2. This is PROBABLY a no go, but I am up for it if we can figure it out.

Lopen posted...

I went into the night letting Isquen share suspicions. He said his reads were currently all the same and that Dumey was his number one suspect.

You frame this as if you started by asking Isquen to share first. But the response that he said "all the same" makes it sound like you started by sharing your reads first, then asked him after.

Isquen, can I just ask if Lopen is charitably sharing this story and that you thought I was a suspect before reading whatever Lopen had to say? This makes it twice now that Lopen has come out of the night saying his partner totally thought I was scum. Could be true that's what happened, but I'm just verifying.

lol, if you're gonna honor Red, you should at least only send it to your town reads, right?

Or maybe you did. You dated JC twice and Lopen none. Easy.

To answer Chris on town reads,

Dumey: I bleed town blood.

JC: I think with the EoD D1 scenario, he easily could have extended a date to both me and Peaf without looking too bad. He did say earlier in D1 how much he agreed with me, so MAYBE he thought it would be too suspicious to date Peaf over me, but I felt like reading end of D1, JC was desperate enough for "any port in a storm" and STILL was picky enough to choose me over Peaf.

Kirby: Similar to JC, largely because of EoD D1. There's like a 5% chance that Kirby was scum with Peaf, and decided that it was too suspicious to take Peaf's gambit and slapped him down. I feel like if he were scum buddies with Peaf, he doesn't just let Peaf die there on a scum team that's already low on numbers. It's possible, but think he's town. Also his anger at Lopen and not immediately taking the Red date when he was in final 3 at end of D2, when it would have been completely reasonable to follow the plan to just lynch Lea. Kirby really feels like Town with no good moves at that position, and is frustrated and paralyzed at what action to take.

Corrik: I don't think he had any reason to do his claim yesterday and make the arguments he did as scum. Very interested to see if he comes in today with a new analysis after seeing that Red was the reason no one claimed Cop when he asked for it.

Isquen: The weakest read of the above. I think Isquen could have taken free dates yesterday like Ulti's. But even at end of day, Isquen was being picky about his date. Maybe there's some scum role that explains this behavior and didn't want to date Vanilla Ulti, but my initial interpretation here is that Isquen was acting in a townie manner. Isquen is maybe bottom of Town/Top of PoE list.

Chris : Inno scan. Possible Godfather, but not willing to pursue it immediately.

Whew, I was worried that Red was gonna come in alive and we were gonna have to untangle all of that. Red lied about his role, maybe to bluff that his chance of hitting scum was lower?, but it doesn't mean that much other than the fact that he scanned Death N1 as well.

I guess with Red's flip, I have to cool my jets on the Chris angle, though I still think Sultan is my top suspect coming in to today.

My ending read to Ulti earlier today was:
So going into D3, my thoughts are
Town: Dumey, JC, Corrik, Kirby, Isquen, Red (?), Chris(?)
POE: FD, MZero, Ulti, Lopen
Scum: Sultan

The ? on Red and Chris were dependent on Red actually flipping today.

God I had something come up at last minute, but I made sure to be back in time if I needed to shake things up.

I hate this meta of all the players literally only popping up at deadline to talk and try to do things. We should just have shorter days if that's how we're gonna play.

Yeah would really appreciate Red responding to any of Corriks posts now.

Wow thanks for contributing chris.

Red should probably claim. I'm not ditching Ulti for no claim.

Basically I'd rather not feel forced to sac Ulti if we can actively choose something.

Talk it out then. I don't really know what I can do to help you. Maybe I just shut up and wait for Red to show up.

Here's my perspective:

Lea - claimed Miller - Has multiple people that think her claim shouldn't/can't exist like Corrik and Ulti. Could have been motivation for Peaf to do what he did D1. Doesn't really say much during the day, more at night.

Red - not claimed - stubborn about contributing, but has done some analysis. no other game reason to think he's scum, other than he's in the PoE of people skating by. Doesn't really say much during the day, more at night.

Ulti - claimed Vanilla - Has Lopen after him. Honestly don't remember if anyone else was strongly pushing for Ulti as scum. He is a louder voice than the other two when he's around.

The longer we sit here with no action, the more limited our options become. I don't think this is the group we try some triple kill on. There's no reason to have town not pair here.

Ugh, Kirby what is the decision you're making in your head right now? Do you not want to take the Red date because he's unclaimed? Are you holding out for a reason to date Lea instead? Do you prefer Ulti dying over Lea?

Will Red show before end of day?

I don't even know if Corrik is here to save himself anymore.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Dumey I'm off to FNM so if you have any final decisions you want me to make, let me know now.

If I have to dump you for Kirby or JC for a vanilla trade, would you be upset with me?

weirdge

Yes, if it comes to that. I'd rather have Red claim (not gonna happen) or shoot Lea before that though.

Corrik, please extend a date to Kirby and JC. Don't leave without a date just because town was slow to come to a decision.

Or date Red if you really want to force it between the two town vanillas and a miller.

We could just kill Red instead. But I feel like he did contribute earlier. I'm not really gonna stand up to defend him though, lol.

Chaeix posted...

see i'm kind of approaching it from the lens of room scanner and miller being mutually exclusive. i don't think we have a miller if we only have a 50/50 shot of identifying scum through a positive scan. if a room scanner exists, i don't think miller exists. scum lea wouldn't claim miller if she assumed a room scanner exists because miller shouldn't exist in that setup.

I mean you can read the arguments from Lopen and Corrik above. I personally think a Cop that gets back either a "No person in this room is scum" or "One or both persons in this room are scum" can exist with a miller. Scum had reason to believe that style of role could exist because Peaf's role operated the same way. Miller could exist to give a false positive, since scum is low numbered and a cop scan would be absolutely fatal to them.

But I genuinely don't know enough about proper game balance to tell you one way or the other. I just think it seems possible and either players or host could interpret the balance differently.

Here's my real argument. Do you think Lea is more towny than Corrik, Kirby, and Red?

I think definitely not between Corrik and Kirby. And I personally think Red is probably town, so I'm willing to "vote Lea" here and follow Corrik's analysis. At worst we lose a Miller, right?

Chaeix posted...

that doesn't explain why she claims miller in the first place though?

like i don't think the appropriate level of paranoia justifies the claim. why would lea pair up with lopen if she thinks he's a scanner instead of coming back to me?

Huh? Maybe I missed something, but I don't think it was specifically that she thought Lopen was a scanner. I think she thought that ANYONE could scan an entire room, just like Peaf could.

Chaeix posted...

nobody has explained to me why lea would self-immolate for no reason if she's scum who thinks there's probably a room cop

The key is I don't think she did it intentionally. She scans guilty, had no info about what kind of scans were out there, except context that Peaf scanned an entire room instead of an individual person. We discussed in our night chat that Lopen/Lea was a strong chance of eating a night kill, but there's also a strong chance they ate a scan because they're both regarded as strong players. Confirming them both would be good. But Lea knows she scans guilty, so uses the Miller claim privately just in case the scan comes out.

I can't say for sure that's what happened, but I'm just imagining A scenario where she could have incentive to claim during the night. Claiming during the night to Lopen looks MUCH better than trying to claim in D2 after a scan comes out.

Enchantress posted...

I kind of think it's somewhere in the Chris/Sultan/Dumey archipelago.

Would just like to say that should the numbers support it, I would be willing to do a sacrificial triple kill on Chris and Sultan tomorrow.

I think Corrik had absolutely no need to come out with this info if he were scum.

Corrik this man thinks you're inscrutable. scrut yourself better.

You're right, out of nowhere wasn't exactly right. I misinterpreted your post about Corrik being either Town nothingburger or Scum as you saying, "yeah he's town nothing"

You think Corrik is scum then and trying to get Lea mislynched?

Isquen out of nowhere.

Kirby date Red so Lea can't date him if JC breaks up with Lea.

JC break up with Lea and save Corrik. He's town and Lea is under suspicion. I don't know if Corrik's setup meta is accurate, because maybe Cop could still exist, but I think Lea is still a better lynch than the other options.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

Personally she still wouldn't be my first "lynch" because I don't find that to be a very likely scenario. But I've also been meaning to check prior games to see if she has a history of mentioning her disdain for day 1 miller claims. I meant to do it earlier today but work has been too busy to spend enough time in the logs.

Just for the record, in the game Lea hosted, Literature Mafia? She gave scum a role that informed us there was no Miller in the game, so that we could use it as a fake claim, basically just to punish town for always believing instant Miller Claims because of her disdain for them. Suprak used the Miller claim and it worked perfectly as intended.

So yes, I can verify that Lea has gone on record several times about this particular topic.

I believe Corrik's claim, but not necessarily his conclusions.

when did this cute romcom turn into a thriller

Forceful_Dragon posted...

He already DID that.

Am I the only one who reads every post of the game?

I do!

And the rules! I just sometimes don't math too good.

JC I think it's better to chance Lea than it is to let Isquen or Corrik die.

The only variable here is Red. I kind of feel like Kirby or Lopen should date Red to remove his open date requests from the pool.

Kirby-Red
JC-Corrik
Lopen-Isquen
Lea

? Something like that. Do we need to try and pressure a claim out of Red or Isquen before trying to solve the day like this?

Lea throw yourself into the chaos once more. Give JC a chance at a life with someone that won't tell him pretty little lies. My boy is baked out of his mind getting ready for the coming discomfort, and needs to find a good partner that will give him the good vibes.

My assumption here is that Corrik has a role that affects an entire room, and with his role plus the two flipped roles that interact with rooms, that explains why he's so insistent on the setup being the way that it is.

I don't even really think we need to have Corrik claim specific details. But my question to Corrik is what percentage of certainty are you that Ulti slipped with the Miller/Godfather thing? And what percentage chance is there of Lea being a Miller?

Ulti literally advocates for sacrificing him every chance he gets in every game possible. Now he gets a chance to actually act on it to save a claimed townie when he's vanilla, and it's obviously scum play?

I mean I don't know if Ulti is or isn't scum in this situation, but he did follow through on his word and put the power in my hands.

Corrik7 posted...

That's lame reasoning. Who else wants me to ask it to them instead that can give good game reasoning why to or not

If you're in the final 3, I won't dump Ulti for you without a claim. If you think Ulti is scum that slipped too much info with the Miller/Godfather stuff, I'll ask you to claim and drop him for you instead.

But I would rather that happen when you know you're not getting a date elsewhere, rather than ahead of time. There's still dates like Red available for you.

TheSultanOfSlam posted...

How am I going against my reads? I still have a we9rd feeling about Chris. If the consensus is we aren't killing Chris why don't I try to talk it out with Chris amd get the best read I can? If you think I'm scum and have any incling Chris is town then same thing applys vise versa

Who ever said the consensus is we aren't killing Chris? If he were still in the pool, he would still be an option. He's not an option because you are sheltering him.

Lopen posted...

Peaf and Dumey breaking up and getting back together looks worse than just staying together

If you're town this is a super easy puzzle to solve and you not solving it is embarrassing

I can't wait to quote this back to you.

*Except to make a dumb play to try and make himself look better.

Like Lopen, one of these plans involves sacrificing scum, and the other doesn't. But you're saying the plan that sacrifices scum in a game where scum is already low on numbers is the play that makes more sense.

Lopen posted...

Actually him doing it to save no one to make you look good is completely fine

But him doing it to save Kirby and make himself look good is completely out of the picture.

What if Chris was a cop and date scanned Death, which is why he didn't bother coming forward with info, and he's not that scared of being lynched.

Corrik I still just have issues with making ANY kind of assumptions about the setup here. Could be a normal cop. Could be a room cop that only scans their partner. Could be a jack with cop scan as only one of their options. Could be a room cop that scans both people in a room and only gets a positive or negative for both. Could be no cop. There's so many options!

"No way the cop wouldn't have claimed today" is just such a strong statement that we can probably think of a dozen scenarios why they wouldn't. Including just being stubborn, which is not a trait B8 lacks.

Remember that Lopen argued tooth and nail that Peaf wouldn't do a FAFO play and leave the cover of a safe date, but now has convinced himself that Ulti and I are scum, which would mean Peaf made a FAFO play and left the cover of a safe date. He doesn't even believe his own arguments.