Current Events > AI chip firm Nvidia valued at $2tn

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68387018

Nvidia's market value has touched $2tn (1.58tn), a new milestone in the chipmaker's rapid ascent into the ranks of the world's most valuable companies.

The company, which became worth $1tn less than a year ago, now ranks as the world's fourth most valuable publicly traded company, behind Microsoft, Apple and Saudi Aramco.

Would not at all be surprised if it becomes the company with the highest market cap by the end of 2025.

Is this actually backed up by revenue or just foamy expectations of where itll be at years from now like Tesla?

So wait. Is it actually feasible that Nvidia will replace TSMC in the near future? What about Taiwan's silicon shield?

Xenogears15 posted...

So wait. Is it actually feasible that Nvidia will replace TSMC in the near future? What about Taiwan's silicon shield?

nVidia's chips are manufactured by TSMC.

Also calling them AI Chip firm is kind of ridiculous.

TetsuoS2 posted...

nVidia's chips are manufactured by TSMC.

Also calling them AI Chip firm is kind of ridiculous.

Pretty sure if they make their own fabs they can stop relying upon TSMC. That's what I'm saying. With the US realizing that chips have national security implications and wanting to onshore as much of that manufacturing, I'm seeing a potential future where this may be possible.

From what I remember reading, it was Nvidia's refusal to move into the future of chip manufacturing that allowed TSMC to usurp them. Surely they want to get back to being on top.

Xenogears15 posted...

Pretty sure if they make their own fabs they can stop relying upon TSMC. That's what I'm saying. With the US realizing that chips have national security implications and wanting to onshore as much of that manufacturing, I'm seeing a potential future where this may be possible.

From what I remember reading, it was Nvidia's refusal to move into the future of chip manufacturing that allowed TSMC to usurp them. Surely they want to get back to being on top.

do you have any idea how long it takes to spool up a leading edge fab and make sure it fits your efficiency specifications ?

TetsuoS2 posted...

do you have any idea how long it takes to spool up a leading edge fab and make sure it fits your efficiency specifications ?

No. Please educate me.

So what you're telling me is that Nvidia gpus will always be expensive now

TetsuoS2 posted...

Also calling them AI Chip firm is kind of ridiculous.

it's pretty much true though? they are moving heavily into AI related uses and that's also the only reason for their absolutely ridiculous recent growth

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tsmc-to-invest-100-billion-to-increase-semiconductor-output-11617281721

TetsuoS2 posted...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tsmc-to-invest-100-billion-to-increase-semiconductor-output-11617281721

It's been 3 years since then and none of the additional plants are operational yet.

yeah, just a personal thing, don't mind it.

Okay, but how long does it actually take for a modern day chip fab to go online (if the info is contained in the article, it's paywalled for me)? I'm honestly curious here, not trying to nitpick or be rude.

3-5 years, though both plants in Arizona have been already delayed by a year, the 5nm foundry announced in 2020(delayed to 2025), and the 3nm in 2022(delayed to 2026).

As an additional note, nvidia currently uses 4nm lithography from TSMC, and plans to use TSMC 3nm with their nextgen chips releasing this Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.

So basically, nvidia would have to have the expertise to create a foundry they can use in 4-6 years, and should be competitive with TSMC's 2nm.

TetsuoS2 posted...

3-5 years, though both plants in Arizona have been already delayed by a year, the 5nm foundry announced in 2020(delayed to 2025), and the 3nm in 2022(delayed to 2026).

As an additional note, nvidia currently uses 4nm lithography from TSMC, and plans to use TSMC 3nm with their nextgen chips releasing this Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.

So basically, nvidia would have to have the expertise to create a foundry they can use in 4-8 years, and should be competitive with TSMC's 2nm.

Hmmm, so they will need the talent. Which probably isn't in abundance here in the US, unlike in Taiwan where literally everyone wants to work at TSMC. Meanwhile, TSMC's plants are going online, but they won't be for the top of the line chips: the 2nm ones will likely be made in Taiwan only for the forseeable future, while the US has 3nm at best.

I think it's more likely that Intel somehow gets their version of 2nm first and nvidia takes that service.

They have run with Samsung before so there's history.

it's just starting up fabs is kind of insane so that's why there's basically only 3 companies on the highest levels of actually making the chips instead of just design.

Then you have the company actually making the machines to provide to these foundries.

https://youtu.be/2kJDTzFtUr4

cool stuff.

So I should buy stock now?

TetsuoS2 posted...

I think it's more likely that Intel somehow gets their version of 2nm first and nvidia takes that service.

They have run with Samsung before so there's history.

it's just starting up fabs is kind of insane so that's why there's basically only 3 companies on the highest levels of actually making the chips instead of just design.

Then you have the company actually making the machines to provide to these foundries.

https://youtu.be/2kJDTzFtUr4

cool stuff.

Oh yeah, I'm SUPER fascinated by the whole chip ecosystem, especially because of its outsized importance on our world. It's a relic of globalization for sure, but one that I don't see disappearing soon, at least in the West, sonce the major players are all close US allies (Japan, Netherlands, Taiwan, South Korea).

TetsuoS2 posted...

Also calling them AI Chip firm is kind of ridiculous.

No it's not. This latest pump is entirely down to AI. If a viable competitor comes in, their stock is in for a shock. ChatGPT's release date was on November 30th, 2022 and the price of nvidia's stock was around $160-170 at that time. It is now $786.90.