Current Events > Putin suspends nuclear arms treaty with US

(+) Yeah! (+)

Big yikes.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/02/21/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

What does China have to say about this, since their top diplomat said nuclear war must not be fought, and was recently in Moscow?

Bat178 posted...

What does China have to say about this, since their top diplomat said nuclear war must not be fought, and was recently in Moscow?

Idk Im not China man

And it happened literally the day after this: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/400-current-events/80354915

Bat178 posted...

And it happened literally the day after this: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/400-current-events/80354915

yep. Theyre trying to provoke the US, and will more than likely use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine.

Bat178 posted...

What does China have to say about this, since their top diplomat said nuclear war must not be fought, and was recently in Moscow?

Probably something something the west is forcing this to happen with their reckless actions

SlySpyBalloon posted...

yep. Theyre trying to provoke the US, and will more than likely use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine.

"More than likely"

Why are there so many alts with a fearmongering gimmick now?

Murphiroth posted...

"More than likely"

Why are there so many alts with a fearmongering gimmick now?

How is it fearmongering when Putin JUST suspended the nuclear treaty?

Maybe you should just shut the fuck up and admit that this is dangerous and Putin is unhinged

SlySpyBalloon posted...

How is it fearmongering

Classic alt question lol

I guess World War 3 is around the corner?

I suspect this is more to scare Ukraine into surrendering over the fear of being nuked.

Hopefully anyway

Gobstoppers12 posted...

Classic alt question lol

Not an alt

SlySpyBalloon posted...

How is it fearmongering when Putin JUST suspended the nuclear treaty?

Maybe you should just shut the fuck up and admit that this is dangerous and Putin is unhinged

Maybe you should shut the fuck up instead, coward hiding behind an alt.

Yeah Putin is Putin but Russia does this kind of posturing all the fuckin' time, chill. "More than likely" is some fearmongering goober brain shit.

Imagine all out war

Murphiroth posted...

Maybe you should shut the fuck up instead, coward hiding behind an alt.

Yeah Putin is Putin but Russia does this kind of posturing all the fuckin' time, chill. "More than likely" is some fearmongering goober brain shit.

no u

good argument. Also, not an alt

Murphiroth posted...

"More than likely"

Why are there so many alts with a fearmongering gimmick now?

It's not really fearmongering. Many geopolitical experts agree that unless Russia outright wins the chance of some sort of nuclear weapon being employed are almost certain.

Unknown781 posted...

I guess World War 3 is around the corner?

It better wait until RE4 remake comes out

SlySpyBalloon posted...

Not an alt

Classic alt response, too

Oh look, a brand-new account nuclear fearwanking. Is that you, Duncan?
Regardless, if Putin used a nuke, he'd gain nothing and lose everything.

Not an alt says the obvious alt. It's alright that you're too much of a coward to admit who you are because inevitably you'll get banned.

Vyrulisse posted...

It's not really fearmongering. Many geopolitical experts agree that unless Russia outright wins the chance of some sort of nuclear weapon being employed are almost certain.

Yep, its seen as a last resort by Putin as hes not capable of winning this war by regular means. Hes unhinged, more than likely has cancer, and his days in power are becoming more and more limited.

I guarantee you hes trying to prove himself as some epic powerful leader of Russia. He wants to leave behind a legacy of victory, and this latest move to suspend the nuclear treaty with the US is just the next step in his inevitably crazy demise.

Also everyone sees "nuclear weapons" and thinks giant mushroom clouds. There are many types that could be used to somewhat lesser effect as well.

Vyrulisse posted...

It's not really fearmongering. Many geopolitical experts agree that unless Russia outright wins the chance of some sort of nuclear weapon being employed are almost certain.

Nah its absolutely fearmongering.

Murphiroth posted...

Not an alt says the obvious alt. It's alright that you're too much of a coward to admit who you are because inevitably you'll get banned.

is your only argument lol ur an alt?

weak ass argument. Maybe youre the actual alt

SlySpyBalloon posted...

is your only argument lol ur an alt?

Wait a few years and then try again, nobody's buying it this time, my dude.

Gobstoppers12 posted...

Wait a few years and then try again, nobody's buying it this time, my dude.

no ones buying what? I know, inflation is pretty bad rn so lots of people arent buying much out there

its a rough life

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_xrUOoyoO4

SlySpyBalloon posted...

is your only argument lol ur an alt?

weak ass argument. Maybe youre the actual alt

Murphiroth posted...

Yeah Putin is Putin but Russia does this kind of posturing all the fuckin' time, chill. "More than likely" is some fearmongering goober brain shit.

Keep goobing my goober, you do you, you totally original poster who has never been here before.

Thompson posted...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_xrUOoyoO4

lol no ones gonna watch a 20 minute YouTube video featuring some ugly chubby dude

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Haha I mean it's still not good but not every nuke is Fallout-tier is all I'm sayin'.

Murphiroth posted...

Keep goobing my goober, you do you, you totally original poster who has never been here before.

Youre quoting yourself, you must be the alt here

Why would he announce that he's suspending it and not just break it and blow shit up? I'd like to think it's just more bluffing

lilORANG posted...

Why would he announce that he's suspending it and not just break it and blow shit up? I'd like to think it's just more bluffing

To try and give him justification for not breaking the treaty

SlySpyBalloon posted...

To try and give him justification for not breaking the treaty

If a treaty can just be unilaterally suspended, it wasn't much of a treaty in the first place

Putin needs to up his mineral intake.

lilORANG posted...

If a treaty can just be unilaterally suspended, it wasn't much of a treaty in the first place

Id disagree there.

a treaty is only effective when those that sign it respect the parameters of the treaty.

russia suspending the treaty is effectively then just breaking it entirely.

SlySpyBalloon posted...

lol no ones gonna watch a 20 minute YouTube video featuring some ugly chubby dude

How about written analysis on why it's unlikely a nuke will be used in Ukraine?
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/10/russia-is-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine
Here's an excerpt:

The fear that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine reflects a fundamental, but completely understandable, misinterpretation of what Putin has said (attempting to deter direct Western intervention) and how Russia thinks about nuclear weapons in war. While it is tempting to believe that Russias latest nuclear threats are directed against Ukraine, it is worth noting that, on the one hand, Russia has annexed territory it does not currently hold, and on the other, Putin has refrained from issuing a direct nuclear threat to Ukraine if it did not take up his offer for talks. Rather, his messaging was intended to push the West to coerce Ukraine into negotiations and to freeze the battlefield as it is now, which would give Russia time and space to reconstitute its land forces. If Russias threat against Ukraine had been serious, surely the raid on Belgorod, the attack on Saky Air Base or the bombing of the Kerch Bridge in addition to the regular fighting proceeding along the front lines would have been sufficient to trigger retaliation.

But such concerns are not consistent with Russian nuclear doctrine and force posture. Russias operational nuclear doctrine (as opposed to the published version) focuses on employment against the possibility of a small nuclear conflict escalating to a theatre or general war, and the force posture of Russias non-strategic nuclear arsenal reflects that mission. Russia sees non-strategic nuclear use in such escalation-prevention scenarios as well as near-peer theatre-level conflicts as a prescribed dose of violence to soberise the adversary, prevent it from escalating or coerce it into capitulating. Thus, it is highly unlikely that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukrainian targets in this war. It may be helpful to illustrate the underlying principles of this conclusion by thinking about tactical nuclear weapon use. This is not to say that doctrine is determinative, given that in this war Putin has acted in ways contrary to any rational military doctrine. But most analysts expect that he would only use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he something to gain from doing so.

In order to use tactical nuclear weapons in the current conflict, Russia would have to answer four questions:

1) What is the intended target of a nuclear strike?
2) What is the intended effect on the target?
3) What type of nuclear weapon would create the intended effect with the highest efficiency?
4) What happens next?

As Hoffman and I argued in April, there are three types of potential uses for Russian nuclear weapons in its war on Ukraine: 1) a demonstration strike against an unpopulated area such as the Black Sea; 2) a counter-force battlefield strike; and 3) a counter-value strike against a population centre to seek a political termination of the war, or possible to decapitate Ukraines government. Scenarios 1 and 3 are vanishingly unlikely, as 1 would probably have no effect on Ukraines will to fight or on Western support for Ukraine but would give rise to massive global political opprobrium. Scenario 3 would obviously increase Ukraines will to fight and it would also increase global support for Ukraines struggle and make Russia and Putin himself a target for defeat for a massive coalition of countries including states that are currently neutral or even supportive of the war effort. And, for all three of these scenarios, the question of what happens next looms. If scenarios 1 and 3 do not end the conflict on Russias terms, Moscow might well be on the receiving end of political, economic, and possibly even military retaliation.

This leaves scenario 2. Put simply, however, there are no attractive military targets for Russian nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Ukraine does not operate with a large-enough concentration of forces to justify a 10100 kiloton blast. Smaller nuclear weapons would be of even less use, as below 10 kilotons, their effects are overtaken by those of high-end precision mass-effect artillery, such as the Tornado-G and -S and the TOS-1M/1A and TOS-2, especially when using thermobaric warheads. As Janne Korhonen describes in an excellent Twitter thread, tactical nuclear weapons are far less decisive in their effects than one might think, and conventional artillery strikes such as the one at Zelenopillya in July 2014 demonstrate similar levels of effectiveness in combat without breaching the nuclear taboo, risking global opprobrium, unleashing dangerous radioactive fallout, or demoralising the soldiers on ones own side. So Putin has two bad nuclear options before him: either employ multiple small warheads to achieve a significant battlefield effect (with a real threat of intervention and escalation), or employ one larger, theatre nuclear weapon to achieve a political effect (and still risk intervention and escalation).

Thompson posted...

How about written analysis on why it's unlikely a nuke will be used in Ukraine?
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/10/russia-is-unlikely-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine
Here's an excerpt:

written October 10 2022. ITs February 21 2023 now. A lot has changed since then

SlySpyBalloon posted...

written October 10 2022. ITs February 21 2023 now. A lot has changed since then

Such as...?

Does the enemyof the week have to follow the new user script or is it just the best move they can play at the time?

The war started on the 24th of last year. Russia is certainly trying to be seen as a legitimate threat after proving their army is actually not an actual threat. They are more desperate these days and hopefully they don't go extreme but they have fucked with nuclear reactors in the past and present.

If Russia tries anything, almost everyone else is going to be like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI2MC8T2H1k

So this is how Russia dies

Fuck

Guess the whole world is going to get involved to stop this evil regime and the mad man with his joke of an army.

Vyrulisse posted...

It's not really fearmongering. Many geopolitical experts agree that unless Russia outright wins the chance of some sort of nuclear weapon being employed are almost certain.

you have any evidence that the expert consensus is that Russia emplyoing nuclear weapons is "almost certain" or you just pulling this out of your ass like usual?

Aaannd TC is warned

MabusIncarnate posted...

Aaannd TC is warned

https://youtu.be/rX7wtNOkuHo

MabusIncarnate posted...

Aaannd TC is warned

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/9/8/AAPhobAADmiq.jpg