Board 8 > Predict, which party will gain control of each house of congress?

(+) Yeah! (+)

predict

Senate: R+1 (49-51)
House: R+20ish (So around 203-232 or so)

Senate is really the only one that's in the air IMO.

Thorn posted...

Senate: R+1 (49-51)
House: R+20ish (So around 203-232 or so)

Senate is really the only one that's in the air IMO.

in your numbers is the left number the dem. number?

Yes, left number is the dem number. The "+[number]" is change from the current makeup (i.e. Republicans currently hold 212 House seats. +20 bringing them to 232)

Thorn posted...

Senate: R+1 (49-51)
House: R+20ish (So around 203-232 or so)

Senate is really the only one that's in the air IMO.

I'll predict the Senate as a R+2, and the House at about 225-230R.

If they hammered the point home about inflation and were relentless instead of going all in on culture war, the Rs would have cleaned up big time. I think one of Walker/Oz is going to win a seat.

armitage999 posted...

If they hammered the point home about inflation and were relentless instead of going all in on culture war, the Rs would have cleaned up big time.

i dont know about you but every single piece of junk mail Im getting from conservatives is inflation/economy related. the only culture war stuff i've seen is from the dems pleading for abortion protection

Senate: 49D-50R, GA to a runoff
House: 210D-225R

Yeah, GA to a runoff IMO too regardless of who ends up ahead. I'm just not making specific race predictions here so I didn't really account for that in the numbers I gave before. It's more along the lines of "AZ/NV/PA/GA, GOP win 2. Which 2? idk"

I don't expect it'll be a strong night for Democrats at all. Abortion is huge, but probably not enough to save them from losing three or four in the senate. AZ, GA, and one or both of NV and NH. House will likely remain close, but GOP picks up 5-8.

Polling has been weird this year

Anything from 54 R to 52 D is in play I think

Thorn posted...

Yeah, GA to a runoff IMO too regardless of who ends up ahead. I'm just not making specific race predictions here so I didn't really account for that in the numbers I gave before. It's more along the lines of "AZ/NV/PA/GA, GOP win 2. Which 2? idk"

Ah I separated out GA because I think a runoff is quite likely, but then if it does go to a runoff there's extra time for the race to change (like I don't think Warnock/Ossoff would have won last time if the runoff had only been a week after the general)

That's fair. I do think the dynamics of that race could change depending on what everything else looks like. Especially if it's 50-49 like you're predicting with Senate control again resting upon the runoff.

DeepsPraw posted...

i dont know about you but every single piece of junk mail Im getting from conservatives is inflation/economy related. the only culture war stuff i've seen is from the dems pleading for abortion protection

Yeah in the last couple of weeks here they finally got around to bringing up inflation and the economy. For the longest time they were doing victory laps about Roe v. Wade and promising that LGBTQ and CRT stuff would be next to go, but the messaging there wasn't working very well.

Well, I was wrong.

Senate is a Dem hold either Even or D+1 depending on the Georgia runoff. I'd anticipate Warnock winning re-election but obviously we'll see.

House probably flips to GOP control but it's looking to be more like R+7 or 8 when it's all said and done.

CA 13, AZ 1, and AZ 3 are all potential D keeps (Cali) and holds (AZ), especially with mail-in ballot demographics. CO 3 (Boebert's district) is also nail-bitingly close. R+8(-2) seems pretty plausible to me.

I want to say the Dems could have focused more on the US's standing to comparable countries inflation-wise (easy Covid money policies + war in Ukraine mean it's bad /everywhere/) but nuance isn't particularly good for elections. The monetary policies under President Trump don't exactly inspire confidence the Republicans would handle inflation any better, though, and it's bemusing hearing what's essentially the same effects here in Canada being called Bidenflation (very catchy, though). Curious how much the possible recession early next year gets tied to Dems in the mind of voters as a result.

This year was a lucky Senate map for Democrats. The 2024 Senate map is /really/ good for Republicans. It would take a lot to change that, Georgia results included.