Current Events > the US can see a new "extreme heat belt" by 2053

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBC/status/1559212514075869184

An extreme heat belt reaching as far north as Chicago is taking shape, a corridor that cuts through the middle of the country and would affect more than 107 million people over the next 30 years, according to new data on the countrys heat risks.

The report, released Monday by the nonprofit research group First Street Foundation, found that within a column of Americas heartland stretching from Texas and Louisiana north to the Great Lakes, residents could experience heat index temperatures above 125 degrees Fahrenheit by 2053 conditions that are more commonly found in Californias Death Valley or in parts of the Middle East.

The projections are part of First Street Foundations new, peer-reviewed extreme heat model, which shows that most of the country will have upticks in the number of days with heat index temperatures above 100 degrees over the next 30 years as a result of climate change.

The heat index represents what a temperature feels like to the human body when humidity and air temperature are combined. It is commonly referred to as the feels like temperature.

Everybody is affected by increasing heat, whether it be absolute increases in dangerous days or its just a local hot day, said First Street Foundations chief research officer, Jeremy Porter, a professor and the director of quantitative methods in social sciences at the City University of New York.

It has already been a sweltering summer for much of the U.S. and Europe. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations latest monthly climate report, published Aug. 8, found that last month was the countrys third-hottest July since record-keeping began nearly 130 years ago.

As humans continue to pump heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, temperatures around the world are rising, which increases both the frequency of extreme heat events and their severity.

Researchers at First Street used their model to create an online tool called Risk Factor to give people hyperlocal snapshots of how their property is affected by extreme temperatures and what could change over the next three decades. The organization previously created similar resources to evaluate specific addresses risks from wildfires and flooding.

The new model uses high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures and incorporates the effects of canopy cover, proximity to water and other factors that determine local temperature variability. Future heat risk is then calculated using different forecast scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions in the decades to come.

The researchers looked at the seven hottest days expected for any property this year and calculated what the equivalent could be in 30 years. Across the country, they found that, on average, a communitys seven hottest days are projected to become the locations 18 hottest days by 2053.

The most pronounced shift was found in Miami-Dade County, Porter said, where the areas seven hottest days, with heat index temperatures at 103 degrees, are projected to increase to 34 days at that temperature in 30 years.

But in addition to widespread increases in heat exposure, First Streets model also identified what Porter and his colleagues call an extreme heat belt that covers about one-quarter of the countrys land area.

About 8.1 million U.S. residents in 50 counties are at risk of experiencing heat index temperatures over 125 degrees. But by 2053, the projection expands to more than 1,000 counties across an area that is home to more than 107 million people, according to First Streets model.

The zones geographic boundaries and its sheer size were surprising, Porter said.

How far north it stretched I think a lot of people just hearing southern Wisconsin, Chicago and those areas being part of the extreme heat belt is surprising, he added.

The agricultural impact of such a wide-ranging heat belt in the countrys heartland is particularly worrisome, said Noboru Nakamura, a professor of geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago, who was not involved with First Streets research.

If there are hot spots and dry spells in these places, farmers will have to shift their priorities and what types of crops theyll plant, and that will all have a lot of long-term consequences, Nakamura said.

There are also enormous public health and safety concerns with heat exposure, he added. Across the country, heat causes more deaths every year than any other weather event, according to the National Weather Service.

Sharp increases in extreme heat are likely to affect peoples lives and livelihoods in certain places, Nakamura said, and they, and they could even play a factor in where people choose to call home.
If a certain fraction of days per year are over 100 degrees, then unless you have the resources and infrastructure to stay cool, then it makes certain places very difficult to survive, Nakamura said. I can certainly envision that would shake up peoples decisions about where to live.

maaaan...

Large swathes of the planet are going to become borderline uninhabitable, at least on a seasonal basis.

It's fine though, let's just keep burning fossil fuels, woooo!

I probably won't even be alive in 2053. Or if I am, I'll be in poor shape

But I have a feeling that alot of Americans will move to Alaska as the lower 48 heats up and Alaska warms up. We have a massive amount of unused land to build entire new cities still

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/1/9/AAI-dfAADkTP.jpg

so glad my area is going to be fucking 120 degrees in the next few decades because old rich assholes need more money

Zikten posted...

But I have a feeling that alot of Americans will move to Alaska as the lower 48 heats up and Alaska warms up. We have a massive amount of unused land to build entire new cities still

I think about doing this multiple times a year. i just wish there was a way to drive between alaska and washington without a passport.

Meanwhile republicans want more coal

Vancouver, BC is the new San Diego.

murica may attempt to take over Canada anytime it decides it wants more space.

Medussa posted...

I think about doing this multiple times a year. i just wish there was a way to drive between alaska and washington without a passport.

If you go by plane, you might not need a passport as long as the flight doesn't stop in Canada

But I could be wrong. I haven't taken a plane between Alaska and Washington state in almost 20 years. And I can't remember if I had to have a passport

Christ. Saint Louis summers are already fucking awful.

yeah, i think that works, but i'm not much for flying. although, if i ever do it for real, i'm sure i'd just get the passport. i don't have any real risks of Canada keeping me out. getting it is just an extra complicated thing, because trans.

How many A/C units (like the big outdoor ones, not window units) would a house need to stay, oh let's say under 90, if it's 125 out?

MisterPengy posted...

How many A/C units (like the big outdoor ones, not window units) would a house need to stay, oh let's say under 90, if it's 125 out?

this is heat index, not temp. so if you can keep the humidity down inside it'll likely only be a little more taxing on the AC.

Time to conquer Canada my fellow Americans. We are taking the hat off the rack.

Unsuprised_Pika posted...

Time to conquer Canada my fellow Americans.

Nooooo we stand on guard

Wow, its like it was intentionally trying to fuck over Illinois.

I'll be in my 60s by then. The 100 degree heat here is bad enough. That would be terrible.

ElatedVenusaur posted...

Large swathes of the planet are going to become borderline uninhabitable, at least on a seasonal basis.

It's fine though, let's just keep burning fossil fuels, woooo!

even if there was a worldwide ban implemented tomorrow that successfully stopped all fossil fuels burning globally, its too late to stop whats coming

also, with stuff like this, it always seems to come sooner than expected. Remember when the ice caps started melting decades sooner than expected?

Kloe_Rinz posted...

even if there was a worldwide ban implemented tomorrow that successfully stopped all fossil fuels burning globally, its too late to stop whats coming

also, with stuff like this, it always seems to come sooner than expected. Remember when the ice caps started melting decades sooner than expected?

Yes, sure, let's do nothing, what's the worst that could happen?

ElatedVenusaur posted...

Yes, sure, let's do nothing, what's the worst that could happen?

were already doing nothing. All attempts to do something have been blocked by republicans/the right and boomers

Northeast master race reporting in.

Sounds like Canada could use some freedom in 2053

https://www.instagram.com/p/ChN_NGxgV_V/
Now those are *thighs*