Current Events > Prediction: A new covid community case in NZ will be announced in the next 24hrs

(+) Yeah! (+)

Just a hunch.

So far I have about 80% accuracy when I make this kind of prediction so... could be wrong but probably won't be. :/

I think it's Bloomfield being shown that text message at the start of the press conference today and looking a tad worried about it that has me suspecting it this time. Not 100% sure tho.

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Happens

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No news of it yet - usually that kind of stuff breaks late at night - but I have just noticed that a lot of media outlets were expecting Chris Hipkins (our covid response minister) to be at the press conference yesterday; but it was Peeni Henare (associate health minister) who actually showed up. No, his name isn't pronounced the way you're thinking. It's more like "penny" but with a longer "eh" sound.

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Oof. (Previously) Unscheduled press conference to be held at 1PM today.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/dr-ashley-bloomfield-hold-unscheduled-covid-19-press-conference-today

Of course that's not a guarantee that it is a new community case - it could be that the vaccine rollout has hit a snag or something like that. No ministers present... combined with nothing hitting the news overnight, that suggests to me we've got another low-concern border case that will probably not turn into a major outbreak. EDIT: Also, it could possibly be related to that moron pulling a hunger strike in one of the quarantine facilities because they don't want to get a test...

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And, latest rumors are suggesting that yep, I was right.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-border-worker-understood-to-have-contracted-virus/PSQ47J4I4N6R6YVSB26TF652IM/

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7 cases in quarantine in one day?

There can't be that many people flying into New Zealand. How the fuck can so many of them be sick.

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Frostshock posted...

7 cases in quarantine in one day?

There can't be that many people flying into New Zealand. How the fuck can so many of them be sick.

The vast majority of our imported cases are coming from India lately. It's very possible that some of the transmission is occuring in-transit, as that's a pretty long trip with a stopover involved, though India has a quite high case rate itself at the moment too - which in turn, I'd guess, would likely lead towards those who are eligible to come to NZ from there, being even more keen to do so.

I'm not too clued up on the specific trends over time, but to give a rough idea, we've had about 130k people arrive in NZ since we started border quarantine, of which about 750 have turned out to be covid-positive - some of these having caught it in transit or even in quarantine.

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Confirmed - as the rumors suggested, there's a new case in a quarantine worker.

Looks like this is another "single-digits, if it spreads at all" outbreak though, I don't think this one is going to blow up. But I have a naggling feeling we might see another one that we don't get so lucky with within the next week or so, too. This one I can't think of any logical basis for the prediction at all.

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Follow-up press conference with Ardern. As almost always she's late as fuck to it.

EDIT: Ok, it's more related to the 23 imported cases (insanely high for one day) rather than the community one.

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HOLY SHIT!

Ardern announced a closure of the border - even to citizens - from India. That's something that was previously considered a red line they wouldn't cross. O_O

They must think that's really serious risk then... wow.

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Well, we've had another case detected, but this isn't gonna be the "big one" as it seems to be historical (and even if not, this should be pretty well contained).

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/04/ship-crew-member-under-investigation-after-weak-positive-covid-19-test.html

But the week's not up yet.

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