Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 309: Putin a lifetime bounty

(+) Yeah! (+)

red sox 777 posted...

I'm amazed Trump thinks watching TV for hours a day is a good use of his time. I guess it's like the people posting here, only Trump is older so he uses the tech of his youth.

This reminds me that both 2020 nominees were born before the widespread use of television
---

Incompetence and illiteracy can kill(,) friends.

---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

The President of the United States only has a finite number of hours in each day and I have to imagine there are much better and more time efficient ways to receive information.

But his advisors handing him a sheet of facts wont have the same feeling of fellatio he gets when he watches Fox News so I can see where that might not appeal to him.

In the wake of the Bolton book, people have been coming out with accounts of how to effectively give Trump his daily briefing

Stuff like keep it short, lots of graphics, and never lead with Russia or hell tune out.
---

Yeah from early on there have been reports from advisors that things have to be condensed to bullet points to hold his attention. It's fucking bizarre that the "leader of the free world" has to have IMPORTANT INFORMATION spoon fed to him like some kind of grade school kid who struggles with long paragraphs and chapter books.

---

https://twitter.com/webdevMason/status/1280173292100321280

Every right-winger can cross "destroy the higher education system" off their to-do list. They just destroyed themselves.

---

Yeah thats some bullshit by Harvard
---

I hope every university does this. Let the whole system go to shit and collapse under its own excess.

---

Im kinda with you on that
---

It's outrageous, but people are still gonna pay it.

---

So if someone were to hack into the zoom classroom or hijack the feed they could receive a free harvard education, yes?

---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

So if someone were to hack into the zoom classroom or hijack the feed they could receive a free harvard education, yes?

You can already do that by just showing up in the lecture halls. Nobody will kick you out.

What Harvard charges for isn't the education, it's the official endorsement of having been sorted into a high-IQ cohort.

---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

So if someone were to hack into the zoom classroom or hijack the feed they could receive a free harvard education, yes?

MIT has offered video of their lectures for years online, for free. The information isn't what you are paying for, it's the credential that you obtain by (1) getting admitted, and (2) doing the work and taking the tests and having them graded.

---

Forceful_Dragon posted...

So if someone were to hack into the zoom classroom or hijack the feed they could receive a free harvard education, yes?

you pay for the degree, not the education

---

xp1337 posted...

Oh, right, I forgot it was a SCOTUS day so let's see...

9-0 decision against faithless electors in the Electoral College; rule that States may enforce that electors vote as the State provides, under pain of penalty if need be.

I've followed this a bit and expected this outcome but it still feels like a crazy ruling to me.

I understand that if they don't rule this way, the entire EC system breaks down. But it's darkly amusing to me because it feels like it goes against the actual intent of the electoral college of letting electors make the final call. But even the conservatives can justify it since the constituon doesn't explicitly forbid the states from enforcing a vote. It's just a complete nonsense system.

Anyways, now that we have bipartisan support for the Electoral College, I hope people can understand that when people call to abolish it, it isn't just to help Democrats, since the liberal justices love it too.

---

This ruling is weird to me. It seems clear that the original intent was to have electors exercise their own judgment. Otherwise, the founders would have had the state legislatures directly vote for the President, rather than forcing them to vote for electors to vote for the President.

---

I hope people can understand that when people call to abolish it, it isn't just to help Democrats

This really has nothing to do with typical arguments about the merits of the electoral college, like, at all.

IIRC, in 2016, despite all the media openly calling on electors to defect... only one did, a far-left native-American activist who was pledged to Hillary but didn't vote for her

---

SmartMuffin posted...

IIRC, in 2016, despite all the media openly calling on electors to defect... only one did, a far-left native-American activist who was pledged to Hillary but didn't vote for her

I think there were like 9 actually

But yeah, most defected from Hillary
---

I just checked, there were 7 valid ones

3 from Hillary to Colin Powell
1 from Hillary to Bernie Sanders
1 from Hillary to Faith Spotted Eagle
1 from Trump to John Kasich
1 from Trump to Ron Paul
---

I do think it's great that Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders received official electoral votes. In my dream world just over half the Trump electors would have revolted to vote for Bernie Sanders, and been joined by just under half of the Hillary electors, pushing Bernie to a majority and victory.

---

Jakyl25 posted...

I think there were like 9 actually

But yeah, most defected from Hillary

10 tried, 7 succeeded.

5 Clinton electors went: 3 to Colin Powell, 1 to Sanders, and 1 to Faith Spotted Eagle.
2 Trump electors went one to Kasich and the other to Ron Paul.

The 3 "tried but failed" camp were all Clinton electors. 2 wanted to vote Sanders, the other for Kasich. One of the Sanders guys relented and ultimately voted for Clinton. The other two were replaced by alternates.

---

oh. beaten. =(

---

Imagine if its a super narrow EC win in either direction this year and it comes down to faithless electors
---

Jakyl25 posted...

Imagine if its a super narrow EC win in either direction this year and it comes down to faithless electors

It won't be. "Biden by 280+" is literally the leading money candidate in prediction markets right now.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6653/What-will-be-the-Electoral-College-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election

And yes, I have a small amount of money on it. I'd bet "Biden by 400+" if they'd let me!

---

4 months is a lot of time
---

Jakyl25 posted...

Imagine if its a super narrow EC win in either direction this year and it comes down to faithless electors

I mean now that states are legally allowed to punish faithless electors they can just set arbitrarily large fines or threaten jail time if they want so I think this hypothetical is truly dead.

---

Actually, I guess it would have been even better if exactly 270 Trump electors voted for Bernie and they were joined by 0 Democratic electors. That would completely and utterly expose the Democratic Party for the centrist, corporatist, pro-affluence frauds they are.

---

I know Muffin is all in on "Trump is going to get blown out because he isn't racist enough" train but there's just like no real path to 400 for Biden without Texas + Georgia + Everything considered remotely competitive (So IA, OH, FL, etc.) and even then you just skate past the line at 413.

You can get Biden to 319ish without anything too crazy but going from there you're starting to get into tidal wave land... 350 and above would be pretty nuts given the EC map.

Edit: If you held the election today then current polling would actually have Biden 400+ in the realm of very real possibility but it isn't and history tells us it will tighten up as reluctant R voters come home.

---

I know Muffin is all in on "Trump is going to get blown out because he isn't racist enough" train but there's just like no real path to 400 for Biden without Texas + Georgia + Everything considered remotely competitive (So IA, OH, FL, etc.) and even then you just skate past the line at 413.

Yes, I do in fact think Biden carries all of those, easily.

Trump will be competitive in like AK, ND, SD, WY, ID, AL, MS, KY only. I think he'll win about half of those. And nothing else.

---

xp1337 posted...

"Trump is going to get blown out because he isn't racist enough"

looks like he's pivoting!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280203174008303616?s=20

---

Youre crazy. Trump has a better chance of winning than Biden does of cracking 330.

It is four months out and Biden himself is a terrible speaker and nearing 80. Hes not the kind of guy to generate enthusiasm. This is going to be closer than people think.

---

The primary season showed Biden generated enthusiasm among people just fine.

Just not the people any of us interact with.

---

Biden didn't generate enthusiasm. People just really really didn't want Bernie.

---

The Mana Sword posted...

looks like he's pivoting!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280203174008303616?s=20

https://twitter.com/ditzkoff/status/1280205516032094210?s=21
---

red sox 777 posted...

Biden didn't generate enthusiasm. People just really really didn't want Bernie.

This is also true.

Which works just fine in the current environment.

---

red13n posted...

The primary season showed Biden generated enthusiasm among people just fine.

Just not the people any of us interact with.

red sox 777 posted...

Biden didn't generate enthusiasm. People just really really didn't want Bernie.

Can you imagine how big of a blowout itd be if during this pandemic with massive unemployment, Bernie was showing his face every single day talking about his plans for healthcare, college, and housing?

Man, Democrats are stupid!


---

Also, I still contend that it wasnt people didnt want Bernie, its that theyre so terrified of Trump they went for the candidate the media had told them was the sure thing for a year.

---

Suprak the Stud posted...

It is four months out and Biden himself is a terrible speaker and nearing 80.

trump is also a terrible speaker and he's not that far removed from age 80.

also, no way covid isn't still going to be a huge deal in the US in four months (which is what REALLY matters).

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Also, I still contend that it wasnt people didnt want Bernie, its that theyre so terrified of Trump they went for the candidate the media had told them was the sure thing for a year.

The centrists who control the Dem Party didn't want Bernie. The Lincoln Project Republicans didn't want Bernie. Because they want to preserve their wealth, and Bernie would shake things up there. Bernie can do damage running into the hundreds of thousands of dollars to a typical upper middle class family, just from their investments (including house) losing value, just from getting elected, without any policies changing. That's how the market works.

It takes some courage to be willing to accept personal loss for the benefit of others and these people don't have it.

also, no way covid isn't still going to be a huge deal in the US in four months (which is what REALLY matters).

The US is going to achieve functional herd immunity within the next 60 days.

---

Like people can talk about how much they hate Trump but when they are presented with a choice, Trump or you lose $200k, they probably go with Trump. Biden's platform is basically, you don't have to vote for Trump, and you can keep that 200k Bernie would take away.

SmartMuffin posted...

The US is going to achieve functional herd immunity within the next 60 days.

If that's the case Trump wins.

To elaborate on Suprak's point (though for whatever 'tone' is worth in text it feels a bit pessimistic to me)

Here's what I think current polling tells us the election would look like if you held it today: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KkNKm

Here's what I think is more likely what we'll actually see on Election Day: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ErY4B

---

SmartMuffin posted...

The US is going to achieve functional herd immunity within the next 60 days.

You should go into standup

---

If that's the case Trump wins.

No, because we would have gotten it quicker and with less disruption without lockdowns.

---

SmartMuffin posted...

The US is going to achieve functional herd immunity within the next 60 days.

even if that's the case, i wasn't just talking about the amount of cases/deaths. the economy has been wrecked pretty badly and people aren't easily going to forgive trump for this.

---

I think you could argue new York and New Jersey might be at functional here immunity, in that they cannot possible rise high enough to overwhelm hospitals anymore at this point. At least parts of them. I don't think anyone questions that many more cases existed than were caught.

---

Mr Lasastryke posted...

even if that's the case, i wasn't just talking about the amount of cases/deaths. the economy has been wrecked pretty badly and people aren't easily going to forgive trump for this.

The stock market says otherwise. Personally, with the lockdowns my spending is way down and as a result my monthly savings is way up and this is the case for a lot of people. Many people who lost their jobs are still making more money than they were before thanks to the $600/week bonus, and that's before even factoring in the savings from lower expenses.

Now, Trump does have a weakness here in that he is sometimes blind to the fact that the many people don't have investments and are living paycheck to paycheck (or unemployment check to unemployment check). But overall, he's done a great job mitigating the economic effects of this pandemic and the big delta between US and European stock markets shows that. People aren't going to blame him for an economic decline that was clearly caused by the virus and happened everywhere around the world. If we do get to herd immunity in 2 months, then in 4 months unemployment will be way way down from here and the stock market will be way way up, probably at all-time highs. If that isn't the case in Europe, Trump is going to be nonstop crowing about it during the final stretch of the campaign in October.

---

red sox 777 posted...

Many people who lost their jobs are still making more money than they were before thanks to the $600/week bonus, and that's before even factoring in the savings from lower expenses.

a job provides more than just money, though. there's also factors like social interaction/having something to do/pride/etc.

i could be wrong but i find it hard to believe that everyone who lost their job is like "well as long as i get (more) money i don't give a crap."

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Also, I still contend that it wasnt people didnt want Bernie, its that theyre so terrified of Trump they went for the candidate the media had told them was the sure thing for a year.

I say this as a former Warren supporter, but if anyone was getting really favorable coverage, it wasn't Biden. It was people like Warren and Harris and Klobuchar et al. I'd say that if I had to guess the "collective media's" second least favorite democratic candidate, it would be Joe Biden (although obviously still miles ahead of Sanders).

xp1337 posted...

To elaborate on Suprak's point (though for whatever 'tone' is worth in text it feels a bit pessimistic to me)

Here's what I think current polling tells us the election would look like if you held it today: https://www.270towin.com/maps/KkNKm

Here's what I think is more likely what we'll actually see on Election Day: https://www.270towin.com/maps/ErY4B

I am very pessimistic, yes, and I fully admit that! That second map seems totally reasonable, but I would put better odds on Trump winning than I would that first map being true!

---

Suprak the Stud posted...

I say this as a former Warren supporter, but if anyone was getting really favorable coverage, it wasn't Biden. It was people like Warren and Harris and Klobuchar et al. I'd say that if I had to guess the "collective media's" second least favorite democratic candidate, it would be Joe Biden (although obviously still miles ahead of Sanders).

I am very pessimistic, yes, and I fully admit that! That second map seems totally reasonable, but I would put better odds on Trump winning than I would that first map being true!

1st map is likelier the outcome. Ohio goes red. Florida, NC, Arizona go blue. PA Mich and Wisconsin blue.

---