Current Events > Total number of Venezuelan refugees could reach 8 million as more flee

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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/12/10/how-many-more-migrants-and-refugees-can-we-expect-out-of-venezuela/

Venezuelans who have fled the country already surpass the 3 million mark, with over one million in Colombia. Colombian authorities have stated that they expect the amount of Venezuelans in the country to double over the next 12 months. Venezuela appears to be tragically stuck in a perverse modern-day Malthusian trap, where lack of access to food is an important determinant of the emigration rate. The current conditions are so bad that even if the government were to put all of its net income from oilVenezuelas main and almost only export, which is publicly ownedto feed the poorest of the poor, there would still be a substantial portion of the population whose basic caloric needs wouldnt be covered.

The tool we developed, presented below, shows that, based on factors that determine Venezuelas foreign incomeoil production, price of oil, and inflows of other sources of foreign resources such as remittancesthe total number of Venezuelan migrants and refugees around the world could reach 8.2 million. Our calculation includes the 3 million Venezuelans already outside the country. If this happens, the Venezuelan tragedy would eventually surpass the Syrian refugee crisis, as we argued in an earlier post. Slight changes in the conditions defining the economic situation in the country can significantly affect the expected number of total migrants and refugees, as can be seen below.

The current situation in Venezuela is so critical that all available resources flowing into the country are simply not enough to import all the necessary food to complement the basic nutritional needs of those citizens living under the poverty line. We estimate that people whose minimum caloric needs cannot be met under these dynamics will eventually be forced to migrate.

Our tool shows that things can get worse rapidly. If oil production keeps collapsing, and reaches one mbpd, while everything else remains equal, we could expect the total number of migrants and refugees to reach over 10 million. Even if the price of oil recovers in 2019 to a level around $60 a barrel, which may be a high estimate based on the current quotes of oil futures, that still wouldnt be enough to prevent a significant increase in the scale of the Venezuelan migrant crisis.

Recently the U.N. announced an allocation of $9.2 million in emergency relief funds to Venezuela. To reverse the humanitarian catastrophe that compels people to migrate, our model shows, large scale aid is needed, probably billions worth. This assumes that whatever amount of foreign aid extended in an agreement with the Venezuelan governmentwhether $9 million or any other amountwill be used to help the people of Venezuela and not get lost in one of the many corruption schemes deployed by the government.

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