Sahil Kapur and John McCormick reported for Bloomberg this week that the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the primary House Republican Super PAC and the highest-spending political group this election cycle, has not been talking about tax cuts in its television advertising nearly as much as anticipated, according to data from Kantar Medias CMAG, which tracks political advertising.
Of the 31,200 broadcast ads the House Republican PAC put out in the first nine months of 2018, just 17.3 percent referred to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the most significant piece of legislation this Congress has passed. And mentions of taxes have declined over time: In February, 72.8 percent of CLFs ads were touting tax reform; in September, it was 16.8 percent.
Thats not to say the group isnt paying any lip service to taxes CNN reported that the group has spent more than $5.4 million on tax ads this election cycle, $2 million of which focused on tax reform. But given that many Republicans at the start of year were convinced their tax bill was going to be the winning issue in 2018, the fact that it hasnt turned out that way and that some of their ad messaging signifies theyre well aware of it is notable.
The argument Republicans have been making is fundamentally hollow, Andrew Bates, a spokesperson for liberal campaign group American Bridge, told me. You cant say, Hey, this is a game-changer, when the game isnt changing for you. ___
Right after the tax bill took effect, House Republicans had their marching orders: Talk about it often. For members or anybody else who cares about keeping control of Congress, if you find yourself talking about anything but the middle class tax cut, shut up and stop talking, Corry Bliss, who runs CLF, told the New York Times back in February. Any time spent on TV talking about anything but how were helping the middle class is a waste of time and does nothing to help us win in 2018.
But over time, Republicans appear to have determined thats not the case. Polling shows that the American public hasnt been particularly impressed with the tax bill. According to a RealClearPolitics average, 39 percent of Americans approve of the legislation and 42.5 percent disapprove of it. An internal poll commissioned by the Republican National Committee and obtained by Bloomberg last month said that, by a two-to-one margin, Americans see the tax bill as benefiting large corporations and rich Americans over the middle class.
Most voters arent noticing a personal benefit to their finances, either. A recent Gallup poll found that 64 percent of Americans said they hadnt seen an increase in their take-home pay, and 51 percent said the cuts hadnt helped them financially. ___
But the tax bill did make one group very happy: the donors who are helping fund many Congressional Republicans reelection campaigns. Before the tax bill was passed, South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said financial contributions will stop if the legislation failed. New York Republican Rep. Chris Collins, who was charged with insider trading in August, said last year his donors were telling him, Get it done or dont ever call me again. Republicans got it done, and they were rewarded.
Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson cut CLF a $30 million check after the tax bill passed and Speaker Ryan paid him a visit. Hes spending tens of millions of dollars this election cycle on helping Republicans. CLF and the GOP can spend that money on whatever message they want. The tax bill is paying dividends to Republicans financially, even if its not playing particularly well with voters.
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You don't need a treaty to have free trade. M Rothbard {Self-Hating Token Asian of the Ivory Tower's Zionist Elite}
The argument Republicans have been making is fundamentally hollow, Andrew Bates, a spokesperson for liberal campaign group American Bridge, told me. You cant say, Hey, this is a game-changer, when the game isnt changing for you.