Current Events > 58% of all rapes in Sweden committed by non-natives

(+) Yeah! (+)

let's bring in a better source than fucking Nyheter Idag.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

also, i want to point out that this is not a "hateful narrative" piece done by some random hack in america. Uppdrag Granskning is a Swedish investigative journalism show and, as far as i know, is held as a fairly good source, and has won several journalism awards in the past.
the closest description would be like the Swedish form of 60 Minutes, maybe, and it has been on the air since 2001.
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averagejoel posted...

Fin_Dawg_004 posted...

can someone provide a credible source for this statistic?

nope

The website may be bad, but the statistics are real

Assignment review mapping of judgments in district court shows that:

58 percent of those convicted of rape and attempted rape over the past five years were born abroad.

If you only look at attempted and completed assault rape - where the victim and the perpetrator do not know each other - the figure is even higher. More than eight out of ten convicted offenders were born in another country. 40 percent of these have been in Sweden for a year or less.

The survey also shows that over half of the convicted offenders were born outside of Europe - 427 out of 843. Nearly 40 percent [of the 843] were born in the Middle East or Africa. In the case of assault rape, 97 out of 129 are born outside of Europe.
The survey applies only to convicted offenders. They constitute a very small proportion of all reported to rape, and an even smaller proportion of all sexual offenses such as the Crime Prevention Council, Br, get information in their questionnaires.

2016 there were 142 convictive rape judgments.

The same year, a total of 6715 rape was reported.

In Br's National Security Examination 2016, there were data of 190,000 serious sex offenses.

You can not therefore draw conclusions about all rapists based on the mapping. At the same time, the trend is the same as in previous investigations of suspected offenders, showing that people with foreign backgrounds are overrepresented.
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The point is rape is bad regardless, the question is can it be prevented based on the statistics given?
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SaccharineSmile posted...

The website may be bad, but the statistics are real

then give statistics from a reliable website instead
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averagejoel posted...

SaccharineSmile posted...

The website may be bad, but the statistics are real

then give statistics from a reliable website instead

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/ny-kartlaggning-av-valdtaktsdomar-58-procent-av-de-domda-fodda-utomlands

SVT is basically the Swedish BBC
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averagejoel posted...

SaccharineSmile posted...

The website may be bad, but the statistics are real

then give statistics from a reliable website instead

The shit site is quoting the statistics from a reliable source/site
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SaccharineSmile posted...

averagejoel posted...

SaccharineSmile posted...

The website may be bad, but the statistics are real

then give statistics from a reliable website instead

The shit site is quoting the statistics from a reliable source/site

but it is not itself a reliable source/site
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SaccharineSmile posted...

averagejoel posted...

Fin_Dawg_004 posted...

can someone provide a credible source for this statistic?

nope

The website may be bad, but the statistics are real

Assignment review mapping of judgments in district court shows that:

58 percent of those convicted of rape and attempted rape over the past five years were born abroad.

If you only look at attempted and completed assault rape - where the victim and the perpetrator do not know each other - the figure is even higher. More than eight out of ten convicted offenders were born in another country. 40 percent of these have been in Sweden for a year or less.

The survey also shows that over half of the convicted offenders were born outside of Europe - 427 out of 843. Nearly 40 percent [of the 843] were born in the Middle East or Africa. In the case of assault rape, 97 out of 129 are born outside of Europe.
The survey applies only to convicted offenders. They constitute a very small proportion of all reported to rape, and an even smaller proportion of all sexual offenses such as the Crime Prevention Council, Br, get information in their questionnaires.

2016 there were 142 convictive rape judgments.

The same year, a total of 6715 rape was reported.

In Br's National Security Examination 2016, there were data of 190,000 serious sex offenses.

You can not therefore draw conclusions about all rapists based on the mapping. At the same time, the trend is the same as in previous investigations of suspected offenders, showing that people with foreign backgrounds are overrepresented.

Wow, thats a really big coincidence.
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You know what would happen if a country banned nin natives? 100% of rape would be caused by natives. Mind blown.
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https://imgur.com/wExjz57
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Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.
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well, facts are facts.
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Abyssea posted...

well, facts are facts.

Only these are not the complete facts because sadly only a small percentage of rapes are even reported.
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scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

That's not the impression I got. The impression I got is the data is incomplete so the facts might not be as they seem.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

Hes saying that the topic title is clickbait. 58% of rapes arent committed by non-natives; 58% of rape convictions have been non-natives.
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sktgamer_13dude posted...

ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

Hes saying that the topic title is clickbait. 58% of rapes arent committed by non-natives; 58% of rape convictions have been non-natives.

fair enough.
though, if you believe in the phrase "innocent until proven guilty", only convictions matter
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What is Kineth even trying to say? His responses to this topic are insanely baffling.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

sktgamer_13dude posted...

ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

Hes saying that the topic title is clickbait. 58% of rapes arent committed by non-natives; 58% of rape convictions have been non-natives.

fair enough.
though, if you believe in the phrase "innocent until proven guilty", only convictions matter

yikes
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averagejoel posted...

ROBANN_88 posted...

sktgamer_13dude posted...

ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

Hes saying that the topic title is clickbait. 58% of rapes arent committed by non-natives; 58% of rape convictions have been non-natives.

fair enough.
though, if you believe in the phrase "innocent until proven guilty", only convictions matter

yikes

what?
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ROBANN_88 posted...

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

I'm not saying that at all. I've heard such allegations, but I'm not trying to make that point. The point I'm making is that the number of convicted rapes is several orders of magnitude smaller than the number of committed rapes. As such, drawing a conclusion about any group being over- or underrepresented based on convictions is impossible.
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well maybe they should stop bragging about having such attractive females
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GunmaN1905 posted...

Kineth posted...

And it paints a warped picture of reality and what is actually happening.

And what is actually happening?

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creativerealms posted...

You know what would happen if a country banned nin natives? 100% of rape would be caused by natives. Mind blown.

Your mother must have been a heavy drinker during pregnancy.

100% of rapes by natives but significantly less than they are now. Id imagine gang rapes would be almost non existent too.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

averagejoel posted...

ROBANN_88 posted...

sktgamer_13dude posted...

ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Some context:
AFAIK, the numbers are from BR? Anyway they're legit. The important thing to take into account is that it's 58% of rape convictions. The likelihood of a reported rape to reach conviction is really low (like 2% ish), and the likelihood of a rape even getting reported is also really low. So the generalization made in the topic title, 58% of all rapes in Sweden, is incredibly misleading and dishonest.

though you're not saying it outright, it sounds to me like you're suggesting that the conviction rate is sytemically unfairly biased toward non-natives?
atleast, that's the only context i can see where your post would have any sort of relevance at all.

Hes saying that the topic title is clickbait. 58% of rapes arent committed by non-natives; 58% of rape convictions have been non-natives.

fair enough.
though, if you believe in the phrase "innocent until proven guilty", only convictions matter

yikes

what?

They're okay with stats based on feelings.
Or they think native offenders are just getting off because some type of privilege.
Or he's pretending that you think the victims of native rapists don't matter or something.

Regardless, it's utterly dishonest and void of integrity.
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Anarchy_Juiblex posted...

They're okay with stats based on feelings.

what

Or they think native offenders are just getting off because some type of privilege.

learn some history

Or he's pretending that you think the victims of native rapists don't matter or something.

what

Regardless, it's utterly dishonest and void of integrity.

you're not writing a letter. you don't need to sign your posts.
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Why did you "yikes" his post then, you illiterate fucking drooling idiot?
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Anarchy_Juiblex posted...

Why did you "yikes" his post then

can you really not think of any troubling historical precedent for focusing on and politicizing crimes by an identifiable group?

illiterate fucking drooling idiot

again,

averagejoel posted...

you're not writing a letter. you don't need to sign your posts.

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While that particular statistic might be suspect, anyone who says this isn't an issue overall is dumb. These stories have the migrants always over-represented in the crime statistics regardless. It might not be national crisis level, but it's not a non-issue either.

scar the 1 posted...

As such, drawing a conclusion about any group being over- or underrepresented based on convictions is impossible.

But that's exactly what they've done. Non-natives in Sweden are over-represented in rape convictions.

The fact that not every rape ends with a conviction doesn't make the stat disappear. It doesn't make the numbers meaningless.
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Funbazooka posted...

scar the 1 posted...

As such, drawing a conclusion about any group being over- or underrepresented based on convictions is impossible.

But that's exactly what they've done. Non-natives in Sweden are over-represented in rape convictions.

The fact that not every rape ends with a conviction doesn't make the stat disappear. It doesn't make the numbers meaningless.

And it's a faulty conclusion, because the data doesn't support it. The fact that only 2% of reported cases lead to conviction does not imply that 98% of reported rapes didn't happen. And that's 2% of the approximated 15% of rapes that are reported in the first place. Some less than 200 convictions simply aren't enough, and BR aren't drawing conclusions from that. The media are.
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CrimsonRage posted...

isn't the swedish government becoming more right-wing and haven't they put tighter measures on their immigration policies now? what else can be done?

Er, no. The right wing government opened the borders. The current, left wing government had to close them. How the next government will look is a little tricky to predict right now.
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scar the 1 posted...

And it's a faulty conclusion, because the data doesn't support it.

The data shows non-natives in Sweden are over-represented in rape/attempted rape convictions.
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so you mean letting the third world into a first world country increases crime and violence and rape?

interesting....who knew third world people would behave like third worlders?

This is why we need a wall, borders, and to stop letting "refugees" into countries. In older times this was called invasion, in current times liberals call it racist to have borders.

As for me, I want to live in a world where my daughters don't have to worry this much about getting raped, and if that can be reduced by 60% by simply deporting via brute force all these so called refugees....then sign me the fuck up right now.

scar the 1 posted...

The current, left wing government had to close them.

except for some cases.
like that crappy Gymnasielagen, and AnhrigInvandring, and this and that and whenever they feel like it.
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Kineth posted...

Ok. Then no, I'm not defensive. I'm tired of these bullshit narrative hit pieces over places across the world. All of the Rapists in India, socialism in Venezuela, rape in Sweden, crime in Chicago. That's the common thread. And it paints an accurate picture of reality and what is actually happening.

FTFY
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

The current, left wing government had to close them.

except for some cases.
like that crappy Gymnasielagen, and AnhrigInvandring, and this and that and whenever they feel like it.

Yeah the borders aren't completely closed. That was misleading on my part. Nor do I think anyone but SD and maybe KD want to completely close the borders.
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And btw @ROBANN_88, per your earlier question about the conviction rate being systematically biased towards non-natives. Here's a study from a Gothenburg a couple of years ago, that found (among other thing) that if someone with a very Arabic-sounding name was in court, they were found guilty more often if there was a nmndeman from SD on the case.
http://www.dagensjuridik.se/2015/05/sa-paverkar-namndeman-fran-sd-och-v-brottmalen
The study can be found in English here: https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/2077/38863/1/gupea_2077_38863_1.pdf

The topic needs more thorough study, of course, but it's not a good look. This nmndeman system that we have isn't very nice at all.
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scar the 1 posted...

was a nmndeman from SD on the case.

My opinion is that Nmndemn is a thing that should have been done away with years ago anyway.
Political interests should not have any say in criminal courts, whether it's an SD wanting to convict due to foreign name, or a Centerpartist wanting to acquit by making a Sharia inspired verdict.

(To those who don't know, that last bit was a reference to that shitshow in Solna a few months back)
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ROBANN_88 posted...

My opinion is that Nmndemn is a thing that should have been done away with years ago anyway.
Political interests should not have any say in criminal courts, whether it's an SD wanting to convict due to foreign name, or a Centerpartist wanting to acquit by making a Sharia inspired verdict.

I agree completely. It's ridiculous that there should be any sort of party politics involved in the courts.
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scar the 1 posted...

As such, drawing a conclusion about any group being over- or underrepresented based on convictions is impossible.

fair enough, but can you then point to a better alternative, maybe some research that uses a bigger pool of cases?
my guess is No, cause they have all rfailed to even try to do the research.

when the scientists who are supposed to work woth this stuff all refuse to do the good research with large case pools, all we are left with is the investigative journalists who have to use what they can get their hands on.

if the Criminologist community doesn't like UGs work, it's on them to do it better.
it has a very false ring when you use the active refusal to do the work to criticize when someone else does it instead.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

As such, drawing a conclusion about any group being over- or underrepresented based on convictions is impossible.

fair enough, but can you then point to a better alternative, maybe some research that uses a bigger pool of cases?
my guess is No, cause they have all rfailed to even try to do the research.

when the scientists who are supposed to work woth this stuff all refuse to do the good research with large case pools, all we are left with is the investigative journalists who have to use what they can get their hands on.

if the Criminologist community doesn't like UGs work, it's on them to do it better.
it has a very false ring when you use the active refusal to do the work to criticize when someone else does it instead.

We both know that there are big studies from BR about crime rates for people with foreign ancestry. We both know that those studies took place before and after a mass influx of refugees. We also both know that those studies did indeed show a higher risk of crime among certain nationalities.
I dearly hope that we both know that it's really difficult to decouple things like culture, socioeconomic status, etc. when it comes to crime rates. It's certainly likely that culture clash is part of the reason why some people show up more in stats than others. But it's very unlikely that it's the only reason.

As for your very strange comment about "it's on them to do it better", I really don't get what you're saying. The conclusion doesn't get any stronger just because no one has done studies with larger amounts of data. To drop something like this three weeks before the election isn't a case of investigative journalists making the best with what they can get their hands on. It's a fairly obviously misleading piece of reporting. A turd doesn't become less of a turd just because no one is making pizza.

About the practicalities of such studies, I'm not exactly sure how legal (or expensive) they would be. Do you know (honest question)? Like, if they were to look into all the cases that don't lead to conviction, is the same amount of personal data available, or does stuff like that get sealed? I would imagine it's not trivial to go through such data, given the model that each instance of rape gets its own report and so on. Then you'll have to find someone who would want to fund that kind of research. And so on. It's not so trivial as you make it seem.
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scar the 1 posted...

As for your very strange comment about "it's on them to do it better", I really don't get what you're saying. The conclusion doesn't get any stronger just because no one has done studies with larger amounts of data

the last BR study was from, what was it 2005?
i was saying that the Crimonoloists who are against this sort of report are using the lack of research as an argument for why this report should never have been made, as if that's somehow UGs fault, meanwhile they are the ones who refuse to do the research.

they're trying to eat the cake and have it too.
"you can't say that, there's no research, only we in the Crimonology community are allowed to do that work...
no, of course we won't do that work, that would be racist.
and if you try do it yourself you're just fishing in murky waters, cause there's no reserach to support it"

the people who complain about these studies lacking research material, are also the same people who are responsible for that material being lacking in the first place.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

As for your very strange comment about "it's on them to do it better", I really don't get what you're saying. The conclusion doesn't get any stronger just because no one has done studies with larger amounts of data

the last BR study was from, what was it 2005?
i was saying that the Crimonoloists who are against this sort of report are using the lack of research as an argument for why this report should never have been made, as if that's somehow UGs fault, meanwhile they are the ones who refuse to do the research.

they're trying to eat the cake and have it too.
"you can't say that, there's no research, only we in the Crimonology community are allowed to do that work...
no, of course we won't do that work, that would be racist.
and if you try do it yourself you're just fishing in murky waters, cause there's no reserach to support it"

the people who complain about these studies lacking research material, are also the same people who are responsible for that material being lacking in the first place.

Which criminologists are you talking about? I haven't seen anyone make those complaints. What I've seen is people criticizing the misleading nature of the publicizing of these results. Again, the state of the art being murky or not does not in any way make this "investigative journalism" any less shitty. It's very obviously not intended to shed actual light on the situation.

I haven't followed the community very closely, though, so feel free to direct me to people who have spoken out.

EDIT: And yeah, the last BR study was from somewhere around '05-'06 IIRC.
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scar the 1 posted...

About the practicalities of such studies, I'm not exactly sure how legal (or expensive) they would be. Do you know (honest question)? Like, if they were to look into all the cases that don't lead to conviction, is the same amount of personal data available, or does stuff like that get sealed?

rememebr that time, was it last year when a regular civilian with no reserach background just asked for (i have to double check here) 4 142 sexual crimes cases from 2012 to 2017, using nothing more than public records and just made it into an 80 page report all on his own?

of course, he got shit for it cause "he's not a researcher. oonly real scientists are allowed to do this"
and a bunch of "he's just a racist with a right wing agenda"

i'm not gonna say anything about whether his conclusion is correct or not, as i've only read the bulletpoints.

but if a single no-name civilian can do that in his spare time, what could a fully funded research team with access to the entire state records accomplish if they wanted to?
of course, we will never see that, cause they have no will to do it.
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

About the practicalities of such studies, I'm not exactly sure how legal (or expensive) they would be. Do you know (honest question)? Like, if they were to look into all the cases that don't lead to conviction, is the same amount of personal data available, or does stuff like that get sealed?

rememebr that time, was it last year when a regular civilian with no reserach background just asked for (i have to double check here) 4 142 sexual crimes cases from 2012 to 2017, using nothing more than public records and just made it into an 80 page report all on his own?

of course, he got shit for it cause "he's not a researcher. oonly real scientists are allowed to do this"
and a bunch of "he's just a racist with a right wing agenda"

i'm not gonna say anything about whether his conclusion is correct or not, as i've only read the bulletpoints.

but if a single no-name civilian can do that in his spare time, what could a fully funded research team with access to the entire state records accomplish if they wanted to?
of course, we will never see that, cause they have no will to do it.

Actually I don't remember that. I must have missed it. So frankly I can't really comment on the backlash he got either. Typically though, when I (as a researcher) would comment something like "he's not a researcher", it wouldn't be because only real scientists "are allowed to do this", it would be because he's doing a poor job, due to not having the proper set of skills. Typically if someone does something that is actually of high quality, researchers would be happy about it. But like I said, I can't comment on the backlash or on this report that you're talking about, because I don't know them specifically.
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scar the 1 posted...

Which criminologists are you talking about?

Jerzy Sarnecki mostly.

the funny part to me was that in one sentence he says it's a "conspiracy theory that foreign men come to Sweden and rape Swedish women and that the establishment, the PK elite, tries to hide this"
to then follow up with saying that the episode should not be allowed to air, essentially confirming at least his part in the "conspiracy theory"
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ROBANN_88 posted...

scar the 1 posted...

Which criminologists are you talking about?

Jerzy Sarnecki mostly.

the funny part to me was that in one sentence he says it's a "conspiracy theory that foreign men come to Sweden and rape Swedish women and that the establishment, the PK elite, tries to hide this"
to then follow up with saying that the episode should not be allowed to air, essentially confirming at least his part in the "conspiracy theory"

Uh, I don't really see how that confirms anything of the sort, but then again I'm not seeing this in context so eh
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scar the 1 posted...

Typically though, when I (as a researcher) would comment something like "he's not a researcher", it wouldn't be because only real scientists "are allowed to do this", it would be because he's doing a poor job, due to not having the proper set of skills.

that's absolutely fair, but then i would expect you to follow it up with doing a better job in the subject.

scar the 1 posted...

Uh, I don't really see how that confirms anything of the sort, but then again I'm not seeing this in context so eh

this is gonna be a bit hyperbolic just to make a point.
to first say basically that there's an unbased conspiracy theory about censorship, and then say you effectively want to censor it is a bit weird
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