Board 8 > Phoenix Wright Mafia Topic 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

Holy shit I forgot Donk too.
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Panthera posted...

My Immortal posted...

They had to kill a scanner and Corrik made it obvious he would spend all day trying to lynch me and save scum the action. Doesn't seem that odd.

Corrik's hate boner is one thing but a cop living extra nights is a lot more likely to blow up in scum's face than a tracker.

NewDonker posted...

FD's vote now makes me feel better about him in retrospect, because he was likely town trying to look good by getting a vote on "scum" that turned out to be town.

Why do you think a town player would be trying to look good as opposed to trying to lynch scum? Particularly with him making a point of how him taking a stand like that is something he hasn't done much this game (thanks to that little early hammer parade), doesn't that make you feel a little paranoid? "Hello fellow townies, of which I am one, allow me to make a very town vote that only town, like me, could make".

Because scum wouldn't want to be asscoiated with a mislynch like that.
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Oh right, SE replaced Crescent.

ColZach posted...

Im lost on scum tbh. Corrik still seems like (bloodthirsty) town, I thought DYL was scummy but you scan inno according to MI and I feel like hes NOT scum.

This idea that it could be somewhere within FD/arti is becoming more reasonable to me given the options left

MI scanned FD and Arti innocent as well
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The thing is we know theres a godfather left and if Ive gathered from context wall enough that means he scans innocent.

We dont know exactly how many scum were in this setup right?

ColZach posted...

The thing is we know theres a godfather left and if Ive gathered from context wall enough that means he scans innocent.

We dont know exactly how many scum were in this setup right?

Bold is completely wrong.
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with the amount of people in this game that have put the word in their post Im hard pressed to believe there isnt. Google tells me its a common role

NewDonker posted...

Because scum wouldn't want to be asscoiated with a mislynch like that.

Scum has a tough time not being associated with a mislynch at this point in the game, and avoiding mislynches entirely is not any better of a look - only scum knows how to never be on a mislynch. You think scum wouldn't want to look scummy by mislynching Foolmo...but you also don't think that having voted for Foolmo yesterday makes someone look scummy. Right?

I know you're feeling pretty towny on FD and MI, who are you feeling pretty scummy about?
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ColZach posted...

The thing is we know theres a godfather left and if Ive gathered from context wall enough that means he scans innocent.

We dont know exactly how many scum were in this setup right?

We don't know there's a godfather, although it is a reasonable assumption. My point was more about why you feel it's more reasonable to look for scum in FD/Arti, when you thought DYL was scummy and the only thing that makes me look better to you (MI scanning me innocent) applies to them. What's separating me and my past self (DYL, for those who get almost as confused as I do when I type things) from those two?
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Tbh I understand how people felt when I came in now, DYLs inactivity is mostly what struck me oddly. I SHOULDNT dissasociate my suspicions just because of the replace, but its difficult.

Hypothetical 2 scum team:

GF & Mover

The mover submits the kill, so the mover can get caught by EITHER a cop or a tracker, wheras the GF can be caught by NEITHER until the Mover dies.

So hypothetically: shoot Tracker, mover is caught by cop, lynch mover, GF shoots Cop.

OR

Shoot cop, mover is caught by tracker, lynch mover, GF shoots Tracker

So there is no difference in risk when you compare the juxtaposition of actions.

So it's just preference to shoot Shad over MI? Which seems silly.
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A track on a claimed vanilla that goes nowhere doesn't mean anything in the long run, but an innocent scan becomes confirmed town if a godfather flips. So shooting tracker instead of cop isn't really a matter of preference even if both roles are equally likely to find scum, because cop is much more likely to confirm town now that everyone has claimed.
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Newdonk Iso

Day 1

1.126 - Believes Corrik's claim, questions Zam behavior due to previous game behavior

1.146 - Reiterates he believes claim when pointed out Corrik fakeclaims a lot and Newdonker has played with him before so should know. Questions previous fakeclaims.

1.149 - Withdraws belief in claim when pointed out that previous example of fakeclaim has already been mentioned.

1.216 - States didnt remember previous Corrik behavior. Says he did with Zam. Dislikes Zams reasoning on Corrik saying possibly Zam setting up mislynch later

1.305 - Doesnt like Chris reaction to Corrik calling him out as scum

Sidenote reactions: Shad questions Newdonk on this asking if Chris shouldnt correct misinformation? Han defends Newdonks stance by saying Chris is a confident player and shouldnt crap his pants about such a claim. Han questions if Newdonk is a new player or alt account. Puns asks why Donk didnt place a vote on Chris. Chris states Newdonk is clearly a new player for this reaction. Chris asks for game totals for Newdonk and Scare inputs with 5.

1.347 - Newdonk says my bad on Chris. Votes for Zam. Asks if he needs to state why he thinks hes scum.

2.18 - Points out Zam is scummy and floundering

2.47 - Says he is neutral on Nana. Asks why people are piling on Deadpool

2.154 - Believes DYL. Votes Deadpool requesting a claim.

Topic 3 - No posts. Sidenote Deadpool has Newdonker high on his scumlists and goes after him a lot

DAY 1 END - 4.136

Day 2

Sidenote: Puns scum list has Shad/Newdonk/Han/Death on

4.239 - Apologizes for missing large chunk of day due to pool party. Reiterates he believes Zam is scummy. States he is going to sleep for now

4.337 - Points out Zam post stating its really bad. Says he believes that Shelly de killer acts as scum extra kill or janitor or kidnapper. Votes Zam

4.341 - Brings up that common belief is a 6 person scum team. When questioned why scum wouldnt pile on Zam to save roleblocker he states that would require all scum not to already be on Zam and for them to be online and agree to it

5.126 - States Zam is scummy again.

5.148 - Responds to request for Town/Scum. Town - Corrik, Nana, FD , MI. Scum - Zam + Han. Neutral - Rogue Noble. Han being on scum list conditional on his claim being serious and him not dayvigging Nana / Nana flipping scum (Sidenote: This read weird, may need re-read)

5.309 - Removes vote on Zam saying it is to reduce chance of scum hammer but says it is there in spirit. Responds to request on Han thoughts pre-vig, states he was leaning town. Asks if people dislike sceptile due to inactivity, notes that it is Pun pushing the Sceptile agenda (Sceptile not on Puns scum list earlier in day, need to check if this changed)

DAY 2 END - 5.458

And I just realized I probably shouldn't bold votes in Iso like that. Will use italics for rest of it.

Day 3

6.26 - Votes Chris based on Corriks previous comments

6.43 - Highlights Zam post as bad

6.45 - States memory has been bad this game and sorry for saying Corrik MVP, says MI is MVP after pointed out prior reads. Possibly in jest.

6.74 - States Chris confirmed scum. Says Corrik has played very well so far this game

6.150 - Highlights a Roguenoble post in regards to people reacting to Chris kidnapping. Rogues post was voting Sceptile for Chris and saying it was nice for scum to show them it was a town vs scum lynch

6.287 - States he would save MI, Nana if Chris flips some sort of BP, Scare because he has town scan

6.288 - Votes Eaedwards based off Corrik posts

**May be missing a post. Did not see unvote of Eaedwards

7.125 - Theorizes that Zam is Mafia Godfather. Votes Zam. Unvotes and Votes Chris due to not wanting to splinter his vote

Sidenote: Scare calls Donk scum for this post

7.153 - MI asked who would you scan if you were him. Donk replies that his godfather theory was insanely stupid and so he would scan Zam

Sidenote: Nana points out that would have made Day 1 Scum/Scum/Scum

7.226 - Responds to Arti saying he would have liked more info from Donk today by asking what he wants to know.

DAY 3 END - 7.231

Day 4

7.270 - Says he is sorry that Zam cut off Arti before he could respond, what did he want to know from him

7.277 - Says he has jumped from majority lynch to majority lynch based off good logic and cop scans and he didnt want to throw down a splinter vote. Says he didnt plan on being on Prof at end of day 1, actually wanted to be on Zam end of Day 1 but wasnt around to change his vote.

7.298 - Responds to DYL request for Top 3 town/scum. Town - Nana, Corrik, MI. Scum - Zam, Foolmo, Han. No personal reason given for Foolmo and Han being scum. Says that Foolmo is a gut feeling he wouldnt consider pursuing unless out of ideas. And Han he states is because he cant think of 3 scum on his own, he doesnt want to parrot Nanas reasoning but it made sense

8.129 - Quotes a post from Nana stating Zam is playing awful and says he loves Nana, he took the words out of his mouth

8.211 - Quotes multiple Colzach posts saying they look bad

8.246 - Requests a Top 3 Town/Scum from Zam without MI or Han listed

DAY 4 END - 8.338

8.407 - Wtfs at his Zam read being wrong. Doesnt like FDs posts about days ending early. Asks where Crescent has been. Says Fool looking bad now and that he strongly thinks 2 out 3 of Fool, Crescent and FD are scum.

8.411 - Claims Sacred Urn, Town Vanilla

8.431 - Votes Foolmo after being asked by Corrik if he would like to join him on that lynch

9.170 - States he thinks all 3 of Deadpools scum reads were town (Zam, Nana, Newdonker). Thinks 2 out of the 3 town reads are scum (Corrik, Chris, Crescent). Says this hinges on Fool flipping scum though and in the 1% chance he flips Town its moot.

9.203 - States no lynch is not an option as we are 3 mislynches ahead. States Foolmos post is setting up a mislynch later by scum saying MI is alive so must be scum, lets lynch him

9.320 - Says Fool seems to forget or omit that he could be scum watcher since no scum information roles have flipped

9.388/389 - Says Foolmos plan is anti-town and just placing his own survival over the benefit of town

9.400 - Says Foolmo is just trying to buy time

DAY 5 END - 10.59

Nanahara715 posted...

Hypothetical 2 scum team:

GF & Mover

The mover submits the kill, so the mover can get caught by EITHER a cop or a tracker, wheras the GF can be caught by NEITHER until the Mover dies.

So hypothetically: shoot Tracker, mover is caught by cop, lynch mover, GF shoots Cop.

OR

Shoot cop, mover is caught by tracker, lynch mover, GF shoots Tracker

So there is no difference in risk when you compare the juxtaposition of actions.

So it's just preference to shoot Shad over MI? Which seems silly.

Yeah, it doesn't matter which one dies first in your scenario. The only one who can find the godfather in that scenario is Death, who couldn't scan last night (and is probably dying n6).
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I don't support a MI lynch today, btw. He's probably going to live another day and if he's town the additional scan will be helpful.

I suggest a lynch in the unscanned vanillas. Donk isn't a bad choice, but I'm wary of Shattered based on Crescent not really contributing through the past few days before being replaced. Seems odd to me.
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Ok so Newdonker, I have quite a few questions stemming from that.

I know you thought Zam was scum all game but why did you dismiss the possibility of a 3rd party and think there was a 6 person scum team in the early stages of Day 2?

Why didn't you follow up on the Roguenoble post you were highlighted as potentially suspect on Day 2?

What made you think your Zam godfather theory was wrong in such a short period of posts when prompted for a scan target?

Why on Day 4 were you giving a scum list of 3 people where you wouldn't commit to 2 of them, one of them you even admitted to being someones elses scum hunch because you couldn't think of a third. By Day 4 you should have formed some sort of opinion outside the 1 player you focused on super hard. Especially when that same day you request a Town/Scum list from someone else and don't want them to use 2 of the people you used on your own list.

Why on Day 3 did you quote multiple Colzach posts and state they were bad and then not place a vote on him? Why did you make no follow up on that whatsoever? You don't even mention it at all when saying you think 2 from 3 of Fool, Crescent and FD are scum very early the next day.

You said 2 out of the 3 Deadpool town reads were likely scum (Corrik, Chris, Crescent). So basically you thought Crescent/myself was scum given information already known and your previous posts. You then say that hinges on Fool's flip and if Fool flips town it's moot. Why would a Fool town flip clear Crescent/myself?

That Deadpool post NewDonker was talking about seems more interesting to me. Obviously Donker would say he's town, but I don't think Deadpool is dumb enough to put down a list of three scum and not put at least one of his buddies on there.

Zam flipped town, Nana is probably town, so that leaves Donker left.
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There was zero point to kill shad last night as scum unless MI is scum.
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Corrik posted...

There was zero point to kill shad last night as scum unless MI is scum.

I disagree. I think Nana's explanation above is correct with its assumptions, at least for the time being.
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Arti posted...

Corrik posted...

There was zero point to kill shad last night as scum unless MI is scum.

I disagree. I think Nana's explanation above is correct with its assumptions, at least for the time being.

It is incorrect. It assumes a godfather exists. A scan tricking role has alrdy flipped in Ninja. If a godfather does not exist, MI knows enough to probably safely claim as Cop.

"Hypothetical 2 scum team:

GF & Mover

The mover submits the kill, so the mover can get caught by EITHER a cop or a tracker, wheras the GF can be caught by NEITHER until the Mover dies.

So hypothetically: shoot Tracker, mover is caught by cop, lynch mover, GF shoots Cop.

OR

Shoot cop, mover is caught by tracker, lynch mover, GF shoots Tracker

So there is no difference in risk when you compare the juxtaposition of actions.

So it's just preference to shoot Shad over MI? Which seems silly."

Nana's entire post says how it makes no difference to kill Shad before MI or vice versa.

However, it is flawed.

It takes away that Shad was confirmed as Town by Death.

For them to be worried about Shad, that means every last person Shad has tracked at this point of the game is not Scum. Which means DYL and Nana have to be Confirmed town. Otherwise, they leave Shad alive and just put the kill in with scum he already tracked as he won't track them again. Making the Tracker 100% useless in the scenario and still making the cop a threat as he could scan Guilty Scum.

Nana we do already know is 100% town. DYL we don't, but for you to assume Shad was an equal kill than MI, DYL has to be confirmed town.

But, even then, Shad is not the better kill still, and that is assuming there is a Godfather which we have nothing to suggest it does.

If there is a godfather, they are equal kills. If no godfather, MI has two different people he can scan as guilty. Compared to only one (if ANY) that shad can track to the kill (as if he already tracked scum DYL then DYL puts the kills in the rest of the game and Shad will never catch him).
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MI is also under greater scrutiny for still being alive today.

Also, MI is still the better kill as he can outright scan someone guilty. Where as if Shad even tracks the right scum but the other one moved that night, then they can flip who sends the kill in the next day making Shad useless.

Shad's role is weaker than a cops.

Say Donker and Sceptile are scum. Shad scans Donker who didn't move while Sceptile put the kill in. Then the next night, Shad scans Sceptile with track. Donker puts the kill in this time. The tracker can be tricked forever as soon as he tracks the person who didn't move.

MI can't be tricked ever from a guilty scan.

Killing the Tracker over the Cop makes zero sense in any scenario.
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Corrik posted...

Killing the Tracker over the Cop makes zero sense in any scenario.

You just said in the earlier post that if there is a godfather, then they are equal kills.

And that's what I will assume at the moment, even it puts myself in the crosshairs because it seems likely, especially with the flavor which fits a possible Godfather. It just makes a lot more sense than assuming there isn't one, and explains the kill better.

I'll say it again - I will not vote MI today unless some damning evidence comes out, so go try to convince someone else. There's no reason to do so at this point.
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##Vote: Donker
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ShatteredElysium posted...

MI is also under greater scrutiny for still being alive today.

That's why you lynch him today and not tomorrow. Today if you are wrong (which we aren't) then you still can confirm at least 2 of the 3 of his innocent scans are innocent. And with all the confirmed you have two much higher percentage shots to get scum.

Where as if MI flips Guilty, you know the last scum is in the innocent claimed scans. It confirms most the game. And gives you two shots to hit 1/3.

So, you have three scenarios here.

1. You let MI live today. You mislynch. Death dies tonight. MI comes in tomorrow either with a guilty scan or a innocent scan. Which makes no difference, as you cannot trust the Cop who lived the whole game for like 4 day phases claim. So his scan is worthless regardless and cannot be trusted. You have not confirmed anything or lessened the scum pool.

2. You Lynch MI today. He flips scum. You kill 1 of the 2 remaining scum. You know the last scum is in the 3 claimed innocent scans and have a 1/3 shot the first night and a 1/2 shot the second night to lynch the last scum.

3. You lynch MI today. He Flips Town. You confirm he is a Cop. You confirm that at least 2 of his 3 innocent scans are actually innocent. DYL and Nana are actually confirmed innocent because scum was more worried about the tracker than the Cop (which means a godfather does exist and they couldn't trick the Tracker by using a previous scan to submit the kill).
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I think we have one more mislynch than I thought we did at this point.
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You're missing a scenario. We let MI live and we lynch scum.
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Okay. I miscounted our mislynches. Tomorrow is the day we have to lynch MI regardless.
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For scum to let town MI live basically requires their godfather be very secure. With his survival, they know he could potentially get a guilty scan to kill one of them no questions asked today (given the mislynches remaining we'd lynch a guilty scan today if he claimed it simply to confirm him). If he didn't, he'd get his third innocent scan. Even if the godfather is one of those three, if he gets lynched that confirms the other two. MI's survival is only not crazy for scum if they have a lot of faith their godfather is well positioned to win the game, which probably rules out FD (too many have been suspicious of him) as a scuMI partner.

Also, it feels like Death's claim has been pretty much accepted. I feel like I may have missed why, though. From what I saw, he claimed after everyone and was careful to make sure what Corrik's flavour was before claiming an item from him. Could someone explain what I'm missing on this one?
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obvious kill was obvious, I am clearly next

My Immortal posted...

The correct time to NL is when there are no scanners left and scum has to kill a potential mislynch target.

if we have only 2 (safe) mislynches left, then I'd rather NL before it comes to that
just to make sure a scumyou doesnt suddenly come up with a game-winning scumscan on town, when scum needs a 4th lynch to win
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1. Arti
2. Corrik
3. Crescent-Moon/ShatteredElysium
4. Dark Young Link/Panthera
5. Forceful Dragon
6. htaeD
7. My Immortal
8. Nanahara713
9. NewDonker
10. Sceptilesolar/ColZach

The proper play today is to lynch either Crescent/Donker/Sceptile. And the scanners be on whichever of the other 2 than the 1 we lynch today. So that when one dies tonight, we have a "scan" on one of the two guaranteed.

My MI spiel was based on us having one less mislynch left than we actually do.

DYL and Nana are confirmed town unless MI is Scum. Which for now today we have to assume he is Town as far as lynching purposes go.

So, that only leaves those 3 as a viable lynch choice today. I am pretty sure Donker is town. I also don't think Chris lists all 3 scum as his potential lynches on day 1 with deadpool, sceptile, and han and then pushes hardcore sceptile all day for the train.

This leaves Crescent's player spot as who I think is the likeliest of the 3.
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I say obvious kill is obvious

because either scum cant kill MI because he is scum
or because scum doesnt want to kill MI, because MI looks like the one investigation role too many and is a good mislynch for them
since Shad was connected to me, they couldnt turn him into a mislynch
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htaeD posted...

I say obvious kill is obvious

because either scum cant kill MI because he is scum
or because scum doesnt want to kill MI, because MI looks like the one investigation role too many and is a good mislynch for them
since Shad was connected to me, they couldnt turn him into a mislynch

You will be killed regardless tonight yes. Then if MI turns back a guilty scan, we kill the scan and mislynch again and kill him the following day. Or we lynch correctly and all his scans are correct.

If MI turns up a innocent scan, he is our lynch tomorrow.
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going between the innocent scans is the best approach I agree
though a scum MI can get us to Mylo that way
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htaeD posted...

going between the innocent scans is the best approach I agree
though a scum MI can get us to Mylo that way

This town is gonna suck MI off until the end of game regardless because all they wanna do is follow scans. Getting to mylo with a 1 in 3 shot of hitting the final scum is better odds than anything else if he is scum.
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There is only 3 players anyone should be looking at today and it is donker, sceptile, and shattered.
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Here are the potential scenarios as I see them!

Scenario 1 - We lynch one of the 2 remaining scanners, and they are town. Scum kills the least likely to be lynched member of town and we have a 6 vs 2 situation. 2 Mislynches remain. In this scenario we screwed up pretty badly. If both scanners are town then scum leaves the 2nd scanner alive as an easier mislynch target, and if one of the scanners is scum we still have to commit to that decision on the following day.

.

Scenario 2 - We lynch one of the 2 remaining scanners, and they are scum. Scum will definitely kill the other one at night, but that puts us into a 7 vs 1. 3 Mislynches remain. In this scenario we don't really have scan potential from the town scanner, but that's a worthy trade for what should be an easy end game.

Scenario 3 - We lynch one of the scanned vanillas, and they are town. 6 vs 2 again in this situation after scum has their night kill and only 2 mislynches remain. If one of the scanners is scum then the other dies and the only information we get is the fake scan from the scum scanner. Or if both scanners are town then we could easily be persuaded that the last scanner can't possibly be town, even though we might just be looking at a stronger than average town.

.

Scenario 4 - We lynch one of the scanned vanillas, and they are godfather. If there even is a godfather, this would be the ideal situation. It saves us from having to make the difficult decision later to lynch an inno scanned member of town, and it puts us into the 7vs1 end game with 3 mislynches before we lose.

.

Scenario 5 - We lynch one of the unscanned vanillas, and they are town. Virtually identical to the other vanilla situation. 6 vs 2 with only 2 mislynches. Scum could possibly leave both scanners alive to create the same mislynch potential we have today.

.

Scenario 6 - We lynch one of the unscanned vanillas, and they are scum. This one is slightly different from the other vanilla scenario because we will still have the spectre of godfather lingering over us moving forward. If both scanners get left alive we would still have a legitimate reason to disbelieve MI.

All of those situations carry an inherent risk. They might get us one correct lynch from victory (7 vs 1) or they might get us one step closer to disaster (6 vs 2).

We have 3 groupings to pick from.

-Scanners-
MI
Death

-Scanned Innocent-
FD
Arti
DYL/Panthera

-Not Scanned-
Crescent/SE
Donker
Nana
Sceptile

-Not Scanned But Innocent By Virtue of Being Targeted By Scum On Night 2-
Corrik

2 of those groups likely contain 1 scum. The only group that could possibly contain more than 1 scum would be the Not Scanned group in the event that both scanners are legit.
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Now, looking at these choices, I still think the correct thing today is a NO LYNCH. We will go into the night phase with both scanners alive, and we will exit the night phase 7 vs 2 which is still 3 mislynches to lose, which is the same level of safety as our best case scenarios from a successful lynch, and is infinitely better than the worse case scenarios of blowing a mislynch today.

Either scum has to leave both scanners alive again to force the issue of picking between them tomorrow (thus getting us another night of info) or the town scanner has to be killed to deny the information and the scum scanner has to make something up.

But even supposing that happens and the scum scanner makes something up, and we lynch someone based on the made up scan (if they gambit) then we are down to 5vs2 but we lynch the false scanner and now it's 4vs1, which is still a very winning play.

Or they give us more intelligence. Either way their is no inherent risk to the NL today. We will still invariably have 3 mislynches remaining and we will either (A) have a scan from the real scanner or (B) we will have confirmation that the real scanner was town without having to (mis)lynch them ourselves to prove it.
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htaeD posted...

going between the innocent scans is the best approach I agree
though a scum MI can get us to Mylo that way

Lynching town MI doesn't really change that result though. We lynch him and that's one mislynch gone, and his scans still aren't confirmed due to the godfather possibility. If he lives there's at least the chance he's town and can find scum tonight. There's more to gain in not lynching him today, I think.

With SE, one thing that stood out to me when looking over the game was that Crescent, despite posting some fairly significant chunks of content, never really seemed to make any impact on the game. Some people agreed with her on individual points, but she wasn't really driving lynches, and just as important no one was ever suspecting/pressuring her. If she's town, you'd think scum would go after her at some point just to make it look like they were taking the initiative on something.

For Donker it doesn't really feel like he's done much in this game besides be Corrik's buddy and express some indecision here and there. I don't know what kind of mafia experience he has to know if newbie uncertainty can explain it away or not. However, one thing that did kind of stick out is that when he thought Foolmo was scum, he brought up that scum would be leaving MI alive to try to make it seem suspicious so they could mislynch him. He then comes in today basically saying he's open to lynching MI with that whole bit about wanting to trust him but not wanting to lose because he refused to lynch scum just because they bussed their teammates. It feels a bit weird to think that he'd just accuse someone else of his own intended strategy as scum.

Zach I'm pretty okay with based on my exchange with him earlier, admitting that the replacement affected his views of this player slot felt genuine. Of the three he's the one I'm the most inclined to think is town.
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honestly scum still can kill Corrik (and Nana to some extent) before they have to kill unconfirmed players
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[LD1] profDeadpool - Kristoph Gavin, Mafia Roleblocker

Blocks roles!
If this scum makes it to late game they can neutralize the town power once they claim intel. Not amazingly powerful, but not insignificant either.

[LD2] turbopuns2 - Matt Engarde, Mafia Kidnapper

Steals someone from the game until the kidnapper! This has the incredible potential to end the game a whole day early if it's nearly to LyLo.

[LD3] DoomTheGyarados (Chris) - Manfred Von Karma, Mafia Bulletproof Ninja Vigilante

We know now that we had both a tracker and a watcher. Well, something resembling a watcher anyways. In addition to being invisible to the tracker/watcher this role also represents the potential for an extra kill.

[LD4] HanOfTheNekos - Garan Sigatar Khurain, Mafia Queen (Stronglady)

The ability to kill someone even if they were protected or you were being blocked. This is the person you call when you want someone removed from the game no matter what.

I'm listing these again to underscore the fact that scum had a pretty stacked team. Just from what we've seen flip we know that they had the potential to take out 3 town in a single night with factional + extra + kidnap.

I think it's silly to assume beyond a doubt that scum even has a godfather. It's certainly possible, yes, because godfather serves as a counterbalance to cop's strength, but it's by no means a requirement. If even death is telling the truth then we have a normal cop, a normal tracker, a weak watcher, and a weak flavor cop. I still think 3 sounds more likely than 4, but it's not out of the question.

In the event that nana is scum then perhaps the 4 scanning roles serves to balance our lack of a townkill. Though we had something resembling a townkill with Lawyer anyways.

It's all well and good to theorize and come up with ideas and weight the ideas based on how likely they are to be true, but we can't get into the trap of getting an idea and refusing to believe that it's NOT true.
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htaeD posted...

honestly scum still can kill Corrik (and Nana to some extent) before they have to kill unconfirmed players

And that's fine too.

We NL, one of them dies (preferably nana because I'm still not convinced!), and we have more scans. If scum wanted to put us into a position of mislynching a scanner then we can force their hand with a NL.

Also may I take this opportunity to say that I like this DYL a lot better than the old one.
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FD, you seem to be operating on the assumption that scum will leave a town scanner alive for the mislynch potential, without really considering that scum would be risking a lot on the outcome of the scanner's target. If MI claims a guilty scan tomorrow we lynch that person because even if MI is scum, we can afford to do it since we'd have a mislynch left and could thus just lynch MI the next day to go to 1/3 on the final day. Death's scan is less conclusive but still could turn out to be just as good as a guilty scan. You don't seem to expect the scum team to be at all concerned about the potential for a town scanner to target one of them.
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Even considering that NL is the right play.

It has the same chance to get us an extra scan as lynching a non-scanner does. I would say even slightly higher because scum might still figure they can develop a mislynch on a scanner tomorrow. It would be a gamble, but scum got lynched day 1, day 2, day 3 and day 4. If they want to win at all they need to gamble. And so their winning line could be to leave town MI alive, and hope to keep dodging scans in the event that we continue to grow suspicious of MI for not being killed yet.

But even that is besides the point. We will still have 3 MLs to lose tomorrow with a ML.

Any other line carries the risk that we'll only have 2 MLs to lose tomorrow. And if there is a scum scanner who makes the fake claim that we follow through then we are trading 1 of those mislynches for the scum lynch then we're down to 1 lynch to lose.

But by NLing if they try that gambit tomorrow and we trade a ML for the scum scanner's life then we come out the other side with 2 MLs still.

We have the potential to have more information tomorrow, even if that information is "MI got killed last night, so at least we don't have to ML MI today" and we do'nt have the downside of accelerating 1 ML closer to a loss.

I'm not saying there is nothing to talk about, because we can still put this time into reading previous days. Reading what the currently-alive people said about the confirmed scum and confirmed town before they died can still be valuable, it just doesn't have to be for today.
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if anything my scan should be more conclusive, considering it doesnt care how a godfather scans
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a NL would limit our choices of potential nongodfather scum to 2, if we assume MI is towncop and that scum kills me after the NL

while a Lynch on one of the potentials today, will lead us to 1 choice tomorrow, again with the same assumptions

actually, at a certain point scum can keep MI alive indefinitely
if he is town, we are already within range of finding the non godfather scum with just 3 lynches

narrowing that down to 2, would help
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and even if scum does not have a godfather, as long as we think they do, they can get away with not killing MI if he is town
(I said this before)
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htaeD posted...

if anything my scan should be more conclusive, considering it doesnt care how a godfather scans

Yours bypasses godfather, but it also has to deal with not being 100% definitive on what it means. There's a lot more wiggle room to argue what a given object means about the target than there is to argue against a guilty scan. I don't know Phoenix Wright at all but from rereading the posts around when you claimed, it sounds like the hair gel from Corrik was a bit roundabout, certainly less definitive than the whip from Shad
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The ability to kill someone even if they were protected or you were being blocked

but Han didnt move night2, when he was blocked, tho
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