Board 8 > Iowa Caucus 2012 Stats and Discussion Topic

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/03/12 9:57:00 PM
#252:


SmartMuffin posted...
From: DetroitDJ | #245
Apparently 100% doesn't actually mean 100%.

Please end in a tie. Pleeeaaaase.
Tonight's episode of Jeopardy ended in a tie. Is this a sign?


Romney wagered 0 in this round, and it will be his undoing!
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Uglyface2
01/03/12 9:57:00 PM
#253:


I don't know WHAT Lewis Carol was thinking, this caucus race is anything but dry.
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SmartMuffin
01/03/12 9:59:00 PM
#254:


Candidate says something stupid people want to hear.

More like "Candidate says something he obviously doesn't mean while surrounded by hundreds of people who refuse to follow his statement to its logical conclusion"

Which I guess isn't really news either, but maybe it should be?

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:01:00 PM
#255:


From: SmartMuffin | #254
More like "Candidate says something he obviously doesn't mean while surrounded by hundreds of people who refuse to follow his statement to its logical conclusion"

Which I guess isn't really news either, but maybe it should be?


Blame the voters, not the candidates. They do whatever they have to do to succeed. It's our fault for creating a system where these tactics are required.

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nintendogirl1
01/03/12 10:02:00 PM
#256:


They're all gonna move left after the primaries are done anyway. And what they say and what they do in office are barely even tangentially related!

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th3l3fty
01/03/12 10:02:00 PM
#257:


Santorum by 18, only a bit left

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:03:00 PM
#258:


From: nintendogirl1 | #256
They're all gonna move left after the primaries are done anyway. And what they say and what they do in office are barely even tangentially related!


A good President rarely makes for a good candidate.

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yoshifan823
01/03/12 10:05:00 PM
#259:


Is Rick Santorum a secret genius?

"Santorum brought up his grandfather's hands. Not just because it is a great line. But because he wants to make this discussion about grandfathers. Not just because of the tie to heritage and story. But because Santorum knows that by bringing in his grandfather, the media will inevitably, dialectically turn to Romney's grandfather. Gaskell Romney. Who fled the U.S. to Mexico to practice polygamy before returning illegally to the country. He has, by praising the working class roots of his grandfather, set up the opportunity for the discussion to be about Romney's grandfather."
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AlecTrevelyan006
01/03/12 10:05:00 PM
#260:


Santorum on CNN playing the "respect everyone" card.

Good call, right move right now.

All out the windows at the debate though.
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SmartMuffin
01/03/12 10:06:00 PM
#261:


Or Obama's grandfather, who was .... a Kenyan tribesman I think?

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yoshifan823
01/03/12 10:08:00 PM
#262:


The thought of a Rick Santorum presidency makes me sick to my stomach. That said, I think tonight's results are bad news for Republicans. Two of the top three candidates have things about them that make them unappealing to a number of Republican voters, with Ron Paul being far from the ideal Republican candidate and not supported by the Republican base, and Romney's Mormonism inevitably being an issue for a lot of people. If Romney (the inevitable candidate) has trouble racking up as much support as he got 4 years ago in Iowa, how will he manage to win an election?
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Mershaaay
01/03/12 10:11:00 PM
#263:


yoshifan823 posted...
The thought of a Rick Santorum presidency makes me sick to my stomach.

Why? There is not a single thing wrong with him.

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Uglyface2
01/03/12 10:12:00 PM
#264:


According to the map, Keokuk county (mid-southeast Iowa) is at 94% reporting. Everything else says 100%.
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yoshifan823
01/03/12 10:12:00 PM
#265:


Mershaaay posted...
yoshifan823 posted...
The thought of a Rick Santorum presidency makes me sick to my stomach.

Why? There is not a single thing wrong with him.


ahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

*breathe*

ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

haha

ha

ha
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masterplum
01/03/12 10:12:00 PM
#266:


From: yoshifan823 | #262
The thought of a Rick Santorum presidency makes me sick to my stomach


From: Mershaaay | #263
Why? There is not a single thing wrong with him.




I think both of these statements are kind of silly, with the second one sillier by a bit

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yoshifan823
01/03/12 10:12:00 PM
#267:


Anyone who is endorsed by Bob Vander Plaats is a Class A Loony, full stop.
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masterplum
01/03/12 10:13:00 PM
#268:


Actually on second thought, the second statement is far sillier. Nothing wrong? Seriously?

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:13:00 PM
#269:


The other precinct is in Clinton County.

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th3l3fty
01/03/12 10:13:00 PM
#270:


Clinton County is at 97%, far east tip

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:13:00 PM
#271:


owned lefty is owned

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Mershaaay
01/03/12 10:14:00 PM
#272:


masterplum posted...
Actually on second thought, the second statement is far sillier. Nothing wrong? Seriously?

I'm not sure his stance on immigration, but everything else he's said I agree with 100%

I've been a huge "Santa" fan since '04

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th3l3fty
01/03/12 10:14:00 PM
#273:


says the one who skimped on details

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Uglyface2
01/03/12 10:14:00 PM
#274:


yoshifan823 posted...
Anyone who is endorsed by Bob Vander Plaats is a Class A Loony, full stop.

Don't know who he is, and I'm not going to bother looking it up. Feel free to feel smug knowing about obscure political figures, though, if it brightens your day somehow.
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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:14:00 PM
#275:


From: yoshifan823 | #262
If Romney (the inevitable candidate) has trouble racking up as much support as he got 4 years ago in Iowa, how will he manage to win an election?


Romney has trouble racking up support in the primaries largely because he's too moderate, and primaries reward extremists. The main election, on the other hand, rewards moderates.

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:14:00 PM
#276:


Santorum spent about $1.65 per vote; Romney spent around $113 per vote.

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masterplum
01/03/12 10:16:00 PM
#277:


From: DetroitDJ | #275
Romney has trouble racking up support in the primaries largely because he's too moderate, and primaries reward extremists. The main election, on the other hand, rewards moderates.




This exactly. Evangelical Christians will vote for him over Obama, but they would never vote for a Mormon in the primaries.

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:16:00 PM
#278:


From: GaryOak151 | #276
Santorum spent about $1.65 per vote; Romney spent around $113 per vote.


I'd like to see the numbers behind this. Santa's focused solely on Iowa, while Romney's barely given Iowa any attention whatsoever.

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Mershaaay
01/03/12 10:16:00 PM
#279:


masterplum posted...
From: DetroitDJ | #275
Romney has trouble racking up support in the primaries largely because he's too moderate, and primaries reward extremists. The main election, on the other hand, rewards moderates.


This exactly. Evangelical Christians will vote for him over Obama, but they would never vote for a Mormon in the primaries.


Religion has nothing to do with this. Rick Santorum is Catholic.

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:17:00 PM
#280:


From: masterplum | #277
This exactly. Evangelical Christians will vote for him over Obama, but they would never vote for a Mormon in the primaries.


I know a lot of evangelicals that say they won't vote for him in the election either. But they all reside in states that are so solidly Republican that it won't matter anyway.

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:17:00 PM
#281:


i just pulled it off twitter but i'm sure they did campaign spending/votes

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:19:00 PM
#282:


From: GaryOak151 | #281
i just pulled it off twitter but i'm sure they did campaign spending/votes


So they looked at how much Romney's spent on his entire national campaign and used that to determine how much he paid per vote in Iowa? Yeah, extremely fair measurement, that.

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SubDeity
01/03/12 10:21:00 PM
#283:


Romney has trouble racking up support in the primaries largely because he's too moderate, and primaries reward extremists. The main election, on the other hand, rewards moderates.

This is only true based on the median voter model which is dreadfully flawed in several ways. Independent voters are swayed a lot by the perceived direction of the country, a handful of issues they care about, and the particular nature of the candidates involved. They can be brought on board by a compelling narrative or the general enthusiasm for a candidate. Going purely by the median voter model it doesn't really make sense for Obama to have beaten McCain by what he did; he obvious benefited from the special nature of his candidacy and the toxic environment for even moderate Republicans. In contrast, Romney is in reality quite weak because almost nobody is passionate about him. If Republicans don't care about Romney moderates certainly won't. His only hope is to get people to rally behind Obama hate.

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yoshifan823
01/03/12 10:23:00 PM
#284:


Uglyface2 posted...
yoshifan823 posted...
Anyone who is endorsed by Bob Vander Plaats is a Class A Loony, full stop.

Don't know who he is, and I'm not going to bother looking it up. Feel free to feel smug knowing about obscure political figures, though, if it brightens your day somehow.


He's the terrible f***head that launched a campaign in Iowa in 2010 to remove judges from their position on the Iowa Supreme Court because they (correctly) ruled in a way that he found unsatisfactory.

I'm more concerned about social issues than financial issues, which is why I find Santorum so disgusting. Mitt Romney, for all that is bad about him, gives only the token amount of time and effort towards social issues that essentially as dogwhistles for those social conservatives, while Santorum makes "family values" an integral part of his campaign. Anyone who compares being gay to incest and bigamy and adultery and actively campaigns to remove/continue to withhold rights for those citizens (see his support of anti-sodomy laws) should not be in control of the smallest town in America, let alone the entire country. And this isn't even bringing in his bad habit of turning what would normally be a horrible event in any family (both his dead on arrival child and his daughter with Trisomy-18) into a political statement.
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RockMFR 5
01/03/12 10:24:00 PM
#285:


I hope CJayC takes votes away from Santorum. F***ing stuffers.

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:28:00 PM
#286:


don't say stuffers and santorum in teh same sentence

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nintendogirl1
01/03/12 10:28:00 PM
#287:


From: RockMFR 5 | #286
I hope CJayC takes votes away from Santorum. F***ing stuffers.

I just spoke to him on AIM. He said Romney stuffed even more.

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yoshifan823
01/03/12 10:30:00 PM
#288:


Also, Rick Santorum is against having a right to privacy in the bedroom, which to him extends as far as wanting the government to be able to prohibit the sale of contraceptives.

You cannot say you're both in favor of small government and Rick Santorum, because dude love his government control, but instead of over money, it's over your sex lives. Rick Santorum only has sex in the missionary position and only when he wants to have a kid, and he wants you to do the same, and he'll change the law to make that happen.
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AlecTrevelyan006
01/03/12 10:30:00 PM
#289:


Mershaaay posted...
masterplum posted...
From: DetroitDJ | #275
Romney has trouble racking up support in the primaries largely because he's too moderate, and primaries reward extremists. The main election, on the other hand, rewards moderates.


This exactly. Evangelical Christians will vote for him over Obama, but they would never vote for a Mormon in the primaries.

Religion has nothing to do with this. Rick Santorum is Catholic.


Religion has a lot to do with it. Santorum beat down Romney amongst Evangelicals.

Yeah, he's Catholic, but that's more acceptable than Mormon.

For example, I'd expect a Jewish candidate to succeed long before a Muslim candidate.
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th3l3fty
01/03/12 10:31:00 PM
#290:


oh snap, Romney by 4

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:31:00 PM
#291:


Latest update: Romney up by 4 votes. 4.

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th3l3fty
01/03/12 10:33:00 PM
#292:


Romney by ONE

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masterplum
01/03/12 10:33:00 PM
#293:


ONE VOTE

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:33:00 PM
#294:


romney up 1

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AlecTrevelyan006
01/03/12 10:35:00 PM
#295:


For some backup facts...

"Santorum garnered 34% of evangelical caucus-goers, according to entrance polls, the libertarian Ron Paul garnered 19%, while Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich each took 14% of that vote and Rick Perry got 13%. Michele Bachmann won 6% of evangelical caucus-goers."

We'll get a bit more complete data tomorrow, but yeah.
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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:35:00 PM
#296:


I recall also seeing that Santa took only 19% of the vote among those who said the economy is the #1 issue. That doesn't bode well for the future.

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masterplum
01/03/12 10:36:00 PM
#297:


From: Mershaaay | #279
Religion has nothing to do with this. Rick Santorum is Catholic.


Last poll I saw said that 25% of the nation wouldn't vote for a Mormon, which was higher I believe then every category other than Muslim.


I think that statistic isn't actually accurate because I think that those people who say that would change their minds in a general election, but it makes it extremely difficult for either Romney or Huntsman to win the nomination

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th3l3fty
01/03/12 10:36:00 PM
#298:


Santorum by 4!

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DetroitDJ
01/03/12 10:36:00 PM
#299:


(Santa by 4)

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RappinHobo9292
01/03/12 10:36:00 PM
#300:


CNN has Romney by 1

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GaryOak151
01/03/12 10:36:00 PM
#301:


According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, the outstanding precinct in Clinton County, which has slightly favored Mitt Romney tonight, had 422 John McCain voters in the general election of 2008. Based on the ratio of caucus-goers tonight to the number of votes for Mr. McCain in 2008, that would imply it has about 75 caucus votes outstanding.

By the same method, the outstanding precinct in Keokuk County, which has the wonderfully Iowan name "Sigourney Plank Van Buren" and which might favor Mr. Santorum, should have about 30 caucus-goers.

- Nate Silver

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