Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1036

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red sox 777
12/15/11 7:57:00 AM
#401:


Ok, if you really think so! I'm getting a better grasp of the lengths people are willing to go to ignore the obvious, simple, conclusion which is that Mario isn't quite that strong.

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XIII_rocks
12/15/11 7:58:00 AM
#402:


Charizard would beat all of those jokes.

He would set them on fire and laugh at how utterly terrible they look in the presence of Charizard's awesomeness.

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XIII_rocks
12/15/11 7:58:00 AM
#403:


legitimately would not even be close.

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charmander6000
12/15/11 8:00:00 AM
#404:


If you ignore the anamoly of Charizard Mario has never showed to be weaker than Snake/Samus.

Remember Cloud/Sephiroth didn't drop to Snake/Samus level until last contest.

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Safer Sephiroth 777
12/15/11 8:05:00 AM
#405:


What is the difference between Ganon and Ganondorf anyway?

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red sox 777
12/15/11 8:06:00 AM
#406:


If you ignore the anamoly of Charizard Mario has never showed to be weaker than Snake/Samus.

Remember Cloud/Sephiroth didn't drop to Snake/Samus level until last contest.


So the 2010 matches are anomalies because they suggest change happened? Mario not being weaker than Samus/Snake in 2005-7 matters no more than Samus being far stronger in 2004.

Also, nobody needs to prove that Mario is weaker than Snake/Samus. That's not possible, especially given the lack of 1v1 24 hour matches we've had in recent years.* What we are looking for is what is most likely.

*This fact cuts against Mario too, because the most legitimate contest he's been in since 2005 is the one that best supports Samus/Snake being stronger than him. Are we supposed to give him the benefit of the doubt based on 4-way performances from 2007? Certainly not 2006 or 2008 because he didn't look good in 2008 and he was only in 2 BR matches in 2006.

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XIII_rocks
12/15/11 8:09:00 AM
#407:


From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #405
What is the difference between Ganon and Ganondorf anyway?


Ganon is the big pig thing, isn't he? While Ganondorf is the man.

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The_Djoker
12/15/11 8:11:00 AM
#408:


From: Safer Sephiroth 777 | #405
What is the difference between Ganon and Ganondorf anyway?


Dorf is a humanised version of Ganon and only appears in 3 games.

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Safer Sephiroth 777
12/15/11 8:11:00 AM
#409:


So he has 2 forms or something like that?He is the same person then?

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XIII_rocks
12/15/11 8:12:00 AM
#410:


yes

Or the same "entity" anyway

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TheOneAboveAll
12/15/11 8:13:00 AM
#411:


Link vs. Everyone isn't what we are looking for. People will just read that and vote Link. What most people actually mean is Link vs. Anyone. And we already pretty much saw that. Link would get tripled.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2562
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charmander6000
12/15/11 8:14:00 AM
#412:


If you want 2010 results look at 63% on Big Boss at night which is essentially what Mario has been getting on him since 2007. Snake and Samus got 67% on Fox and Sub-Zero.

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red sox 777
12/15/11 8:14:00 AM
#413:


Yes, however the different Links in the different games are reincarnations of each other, not quite the same person.

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red sox 777
12/15/11 8:17:00 AM
#414:


Link vs. Everyone isn't what we are looking for. People will just read that and vote Link. What most people actually mean is Link vs. Anyone. And we already pretty much saw that. Link would get tripled.

But we want Link to win. Seeing Link getting tripled is no fun.

If you want 2010 results look at 63% on Big Boss at night which is essentially what Mario has been getting on him since 2007. Snake and Samus got 67% on Fox and Sub-Zero.

I'll gladly take 67% on Fox over 63% on Big Boss. Fox is a tad under Kirby, so that lines up quite well with Snake at 53% on Mario.

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FFDragon
12/15/11 8:21:00 AM
#415:


red sox 777 posted...
Seeing Link getting tripled is no fun.

wat

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charmander6000
12/15/11 8:21:00 AM
#416:


Fox has never been shown to be close to Kirby, doubling Lloyd is not that impressive.

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charmander6000
12/15/11 8:22:00 AM
#417:


Seeing Link getting tripled is no fun.

wat


Link would destroy a vs. Everyone poll. It isn't specific enough and people will pick Link despite him not being their favourite character

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The_Djoker
12/15/11 8:27:00 AM
#418:


i agree link would win. if you wanna see him lose you need to be more specfic and cloud HAS to be in it

Link Vs Cloud/Mario/Snake/Crono

If you wanna see link lose in a duo poll


Link/Tingle Vs Cloud/Seph

Not even zelda fanboys will argue with this. 65-35 win for cloud

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The Mana Sword
12/15/11 8:28:00 AM
#419:


The point was not to see Link lose!

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TheOneAboveAll
12/15/11 8:28:00 AM
#420:


Link would destroy a vs. Everyone poll. It isn't specific enough and people will pick Link despite him not being their favourite character

That's exactly what I said. Link vs. Anyone would be a tripling, at least.
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Ultimaphazon
12/15/11 8:32:00 AM
#421:


And Link vs Anyone would be specific enough? The result would be the exact same.

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The_Djoker
12/15/11 8:35:00 AM
#422:


From: The Mana Sword | #419
The point was not to see Link lose!


that should always be the point.

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Wii_TuRtLe
12/15/11 8:38:00 AM
#423:


creativename posted...
From: red sox 777 | #1707rSFF has 1 match backing it up.
Except this is patently false, since Mario looked plain stronger that year or at the very worst her indirect equal.

So no. rSFF has literally zero matches backing it up. Including Mario/Samus.


Zero/Mega Man

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charmander6000
12/15/11 8:42:00 AM
#424:


That was more random variation than rSFF.

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red sox 777
12/15/11 8:53:00 AM
#425:


Fox has never been shown to be close to Kirby, doubling Lloyd is not that impressive.

Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox

He's right up there with Kirby.

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red sox 777
12/15/11 8:55:00 AM
#426:


Not even zelda fanboys will argue with this. 65-35 win for cloud

The people expressing the most confidence in Link's invincibility are the people who don't like him and campaign for him to be removed from the contest. I guess a Cloud win would set back the "remove Link" plans for a few years. It's like a conspiracy to stop Link from winning the future contests he so richly deserves.

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TheOneAboveAll
12/15/11 8:58:00 AM
#427:


rSFF makes perfect sense and probably exist. Whether we've yet to see a match that has been heavily influenced by it is another debate. I would say that Missingo./Yoshi was rSFF, unless you really think Yoshi is worth 43% on Sephiroth or whatever it came out to. (Okay, even after factoring in the bandwagon/rallying we would still get Yoshi being worth 38% on Sephiroth minimum; maybe that's true but I think something else was in play that match-rSFF.)
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charmander6000
12/15/11 9:01:00 AM
#428:


Fox did better than I remembered.

Either way this more less makes the trio at roughly the same tier strength, which I think no one has been disagreeing.

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charmander6000
12/15/11 9:03:00 AM
#429:


I really do wish that people stop using pokemon like they were static in 2010. Might as well go with Pikachu wins against Squall easily too.

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red sox 777
12/15/11 9:08:00 AM
#430:


That match is much more the fault of sprite Snake than Pikachu. Indeed I'd call it 100% the fault of the sprite round, nothing to do with Pokemon other than they are helped by sprites. And Snake's sprite of course made a much bigger difference, as it does every single time it is used.

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Wii_TuRtLe
12/15/11 9:15:00 AM
#431:


TheOneAboveAll posted...
rSFF makes perfect sense and probably exist. Whether we've yet to see a match that has been heavily influenced by it is another debate. I would say that Missingo./Yoshi was rSFF, unless you really think Yoshi is worth 43% on Sephiroth or whatever it came out to. (Okay, even after factoring in the bandwagon/rallying we would still get Yoshi being worth 38% on Sephiroth minimum; maybe that's true but I think something else was in play that match-rSFF.)

Bowser got 40% against a much stronger Sephiroth in 2005, is it really THAT hard to believe Yoshi is around that area too? Especially with how ass Seph has looked the last few years.

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charmander6000
12/15/11 9:21:00 AM
#432:


We're really going to use 40% on Sephiroth at face value when only a couple of months later Super Mario only got 43%?

With that said 38% isn't too far of what I would predict Yoshi to get (36%)

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The_Djoker
12/15/11 9:43:00 AM
#433:


From: red sox 777 | #426
Not even zelda fanboys will argue with this. 65-35 win for cloud

The people expressing the most confidence in Link's invincibility are the people who don't like him and campaign for him to be removed from the contest. I guess a Cloud win would set back the "remove Link" plans for a few years. It's like a conspiracy to stop Link from winning the future contests he so richly deserves.


The thing my own confidence in Cloud is based off the format of the contest.

Link should be removed. So Should cloud. Link is #1 and Cloud is #2

Who is #3? Snake? Samus? Mario?

IT would be far more interesting. Do another tournament of champions where Link/Cloud are in it.

In fact remove FFVII/OoT/Link/Cloud from future contests.

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Safer Sephiroth 777
12/15/11 9:51:00 AM
#434:


Also for the people that make pictures,try to put Charizard on Trainers and put Toon Link or CD-I Link when he is against Cloud all right?We need to have every advantage possible!

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Wii_TuRtLe
12/15/11 9:56:00 AM
#435:


charmander6000 posted...
We're really going to use 40% on Sephiroth at face value when only a couple of months later Super Mario only got 43%?

With that said 38% isn't too far of what I would predict Yoshi to get (36%)


Well, I think we all understand that the VC matches were a little overrated, but the point still stands that Yoshi isn't too far off Bowser, 38% on Seph makes sense.

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Not_Wylvane
12/15/11 9:56:00 AM
#436:


Use Red's Brawl pic and SS Link. Mario and Link need every advantage they can get!

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Kotetsu534
12/15/11 9:56:00 AM
#437:


Don't really see the point of removing Cloud. Last contest he was at ~52% against Snake and Samus. Many think Mario > Snake and Samus so they would see Cloud/Mario as a very debatable match. If you think Cloud will have continued to drop between early 2010 and whenever we have the next contest (presumably mid 2012), then there's not much room for him to still be above Snake and Samus.

The problem with Link is that he's never going to lose to other Nintendo and never going to lose to Cloud unless there's an FFVII remake or KH3, which aren't happening for the foreseeable. Snake doesn't have any reason to boost from here on, and even when he went feral in 2008 he still couldn't hang with Link for more than six hours, so you can count him out. Link, meanwhile, has had a new Zelda.

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-LusterSoldier-
12/15/11 9:57:00 AM
#438:


red sox 777 | Posted 12/15/2011 10:36:23 AM | message detail | quote
Dunno that Missingno would have done better in a day match. There are more votes in a day match so rallies matter less. And Missingno couldn't replicated the Power Hour in a day match because even though a day match gets much more votes overall, the first hour gets much less, and there isn't such a big surge for Nintendo/Pokemon/Jokes and against FFVII in it either.


In a night match, rallies would be most effective between the period of 2:00-9:00 AM. So that's going to be the first 2 hours, or last 3 hours of the match. The day match may have more votes overall, but that is offset by the fact that you can rally at any point in the match. There isn't a single time during a day match that a rally wouldn't be effective at all.

The big difference between night matches and day matches are the regional demographics voting at the start of the match. The night match will start out having about 86-90% of the votes from North America, and only about 2% from Europe. The day match will start out having about 75-80% of the votes from North America, but around 15% from Europe.

As for the Power Hour in a day match, I haven't really noticed any difference to how it works in a night match. We've seen FFVII get anti-voted badly in a day match, such as Sephiroth's matches against Tifa and Snake.

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charmander6000
12/15/11 10:07:00 AM
#439:


Cloud doesn't need to be removed.

SBAllen could always have Link play the champion of the next contest and whoever wins gets to be the reigning champion and take on the champion of the next contest.

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Wii_TuRtLe
12/15/11 10:10:00 AM
#440:


Man, I'm so disappointed that within a few days I will no longer be in everyone's sig.

Even though IIRC the Guru bet is only for 1 month after the contest ends.

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PartOfYourWorld
12/15/11 10:13:00 AM
#441:


Two weeks, actually. Some people just don't care about changing their sigs back.

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red sox 777
12/15/11 10:26:00 AM
#442:


See, if Cloud wins this contest, Link can get away with winning the next 5 contests without getting removed. So losing here is actually a long term strategy to win more contests. Once in a few years Link has to take a loss to prove that he's not invincible, so that he can win more.

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charmander6000
12/15/11 10:32:00 AM
#443:


Truthfully Link doesn't need to be removed to get an interesting bracket anyways.

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The_Djoker
12/15/11 10:38:00 AM
#444:


If he's on his own sure.

And KH3 would not boost cloud that much. HE's still popular, whenever a new FF game comes out people go "oh wait whats this FFVII people keep talking about"

Sure they don't have the same impact but it's not like he's completely fallen of a cliff like Crono.

Despite Link getting Game after game and appearing on Smash...he's only really added about 0.5% per Character contest on Cloud.

I want Cloud to appear in more games. The only way he would be able to beat link is if he became a Smash Bros character, that way he do some serious damage. I do not want a FFVII remake because i'm happy OoT being the #1 Game.....for as long as possible

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TheOneAboveAll
12/15/11 10:58:00 AM
#445:


This is different than a straight-up CB. The whole point of this contest was to see if Cloud and Sephiroth together can beat Link. Regardless of who wins, Link should be removed from the next normal CB (2010 showed that no one can beat him) and face the winner of the bracket. There's no point in having him in a normal bracket. We all know he won't lose. And if he could, he gets to face the tournament champion in a bonus match anyways, so we still get to see that.
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The_Djoker
12/15/11 10:59:00 AM
#446:


Another thing i wanted to say was on the Samus>Mario debate.

Samus has looked indirectly stronger than Mario in recent contests because her performances were better...i think indirectly Mario is still 1-2% stronger. Directly he's obviously way more, i'd say up to 57-58 pushing 60 after Other M.

Respect vote + Nintendo = Strong. She's also a Female..so Anti Nintendo guys or Halo fanboys can relate to her...a badass robot looking dude or a hot chick in a suit.

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The_Djoker
12/15/11 11:00:00 AM
#447:


The whole point of this contest was to see if Cloud and Sephiroth together can beat Link.


haha, after how bad this contest has been...that is ultimately what this contest was created for.

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Not_Wylvane
12/15/11 12:02:00 PM
#448:


Watch Ganondorf beat Sephiroth next contest.

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_Regaro_
12/15/11 1:41:00 PM
#449:


So as long as the three reasonable perfects have Mario > Red, we're having at least one perfect right <_<


because let's face it Mario/Bowser isn't beating Link or Cloud

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charmander6000
12/15/11 1:46:00 PM
#450:


Granzon has Link > Red, though I would be surprised if the other Link or Cloud winner has Mario losing.

Still hoping for a Mario > Cloud final.

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