Current Events > Biden's pulling away from Trump in the betting markets

(+) Yeah! (+)

In the general polls, Trump's down by the largest margin any incumbent has experienced since Carter.

The electoral map looked like this in that election:




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It's also worth mentioning that if Trump beats his poll numbers by the same spread he did in 2016, he would still lose nearly every swing state.

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Trump did not help himself in that debate

Literally only extreme right wingers and uninformed/uneducated conservatives support him

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Damn_Underscore posted...

Trump did not help himself in that debate

Literally only extreme right wingers and uninformed/uneducated conservatives support him

Sean Hannity was going full propaganda damage control today

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DarkRoast posted...

Sean Hannity was going full propaganda damage control today

https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1311474779136897026?s=21

Trump is just tanking right now
That's the lowest I've ever seen his numbers


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Damn_Underscore posted...

Literally only extreme right wingers and uninformed/uneducated conservatives support him

Yup my coworker was acting like Trump did great and Biden was so nasty. I just face palmed. She's pretty much a lost cause.

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It is what it is

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has anybody here bet on this? or in 2016?

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Covid might actually humanize Trump, definitely in his favor.

They should also take his phone away while in quarantine, so we just have the ACB confirmation to take our focus, and everyone can watch the Dems rip a woman to shreds for her high school yearbook like they did Kavanaugh, maybe he will have a chance then


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AngelsNAirwav3s posted...

Covid might actually humanize Trump, definitely in his favor.

They should also take his phone away while in quarantine, so we just have the ACB confirmation to take our focus, and everyone can watch the Dems rip a woman to shreds for her high school yearbook like they did Kavanaugh, maybe he will have a chance then

I don't think it humanizes him at all; in fact pretty much the only thing it does is highlight just how irresponsible his rallies have been.

Boris Johnson certainly wasn't humanized.


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I firmly believe Texas can be blue this election, and that's monumental for our nation's voting history on how horrible Trump is.

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Trump will probably get Florida & North Carolina. That's 44 electoral votes right there.

Despite what that map says he'll get Arizona as well. AZ is a primarily Democratic population given the amount of Mexican immigrants...but Arizona has a very racist statute that says if anybody "looks" like they could be an immigrant then they must go through extra screening to be allowed to vote. This includes bringing a birth certificate with them.

Basically if you have brown skin and want to vote, you risk deportation even if you are a citizen... because that police force is corrupt as fuck.

Arizona polls Democrat...but it votes Republican. Hence, John McCain & Joe Arpaio keeping office for so long.

That's another 11 electoral votes from Arizona, which means a total of 55 for Trump, that the map currently shows going to Biden.

:-/

Edit: so according to the map, if I redistribut those 55 votes, then Democrats have 280, while Republicans have 258.

That's a total of 22 votes in terms of separation.

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in betting, "high" or "low" values can mean the same thing depending on the game. What exactly are the odds? Raw cents numbers mean nothing.

but it's not like there's a leftist agenda or anything to the TC's motivation behind making this topic

Naysaspace posted...

in betting, "high" or "low" values can mean the same thing depending on the game. What exactly are the odds? Raw cents numbers mean nothing.

but it's not like there's a leftist agenda or anything to the TC's motivation behind making this topic

Oh yes I'm known for my leftist agendas

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How were the betting markets around this time four years ago, for reference?

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It's possible Trump nabs Nevada via politics. The majority of the districts that count are casino cities. I could see that one being internally messy.

But to win Trump is going to have to have Wisconsin, Minnesota, & Michigan hardcore. Michigan he might be able to sway by revigorating factory jobs...in fact I think it'll be easy to do. However, Wisconsin & Minnesota aren't the hillbilly hunting states that they use to be. I think he loses them.

My final prediction is Biden by a hair. I think Trump nabs Florida, NC, AZ, and Michigan. For a total of 268 electoral votes. Meanwhile Biden is left w/ 270 electoral votes. Nevada is the true "swing state" in my opinion.

Arizona is a lock for Trump despite what that map says, and easy money.

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scar the 1 posted...

How were the betting markets around this time four years ago, for reference?

I don't know about the betting markets, but I do know the spread was Clinton +3

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DarkRoast posted...

I don't know about the betting markets, but I do know the spread was Clinton +3

And now for Biden it's +10 right? I think it was in the image you posted in the other topic

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scar the 1 posted...

And now for Biden it's +10 right? I think it was in the image you posted in the other topic

Right now, the average is 6.6, however the trend is going in Biden's direction.

It's worth noting that even if Trump exceeded his poll margins by the same amount he did last time, he would still lose in a landslide.

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holy shit. florida is actually blue

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Arizona is going to be for Trump, bet the house on it.

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If Rasmussen is +8 Biden, you know it's bad.

To be fair, Rasmussen gets a lot of hate for their GOP skew, but they actually are pretty good as far as poll precision goes.

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I see. It'll be interesting to see how Donny handles this

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Seriously, bet against AZ

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DarkRoast posted...

To be fair, Rasmussen gets a lot of hate for their GOP skew, but they actually are pretty good as far as poll precision goes.

Lmao they have a C on 538

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Most political analysis are looking at Pennsylvania like it matters, but it really doesn't. That state is do split down the middle, either Trump gets it or he doesn't. There is no reason to even campaign there.

However, just light campaigning in both Florida & North Carolina gets him those states. Arizona voters have no choice in the matter, by the way their government contols the votes it'll always be a Red state.

It's Michigan that Trump needs to go "hard in the paint" for. Covid has absolutely crippled their industry. No state has been hit worst than them. Biden wants to shut up the country down, which means those w/ a stake in the Michigan Factory Industry might be willing to "make a deal with the devil" to bring money back into their pockets.

Biden is basically rolling the dice and hoping he gets Michigan based purely on party loyalty, but theoretically no state actually benefits from a Trump second term like they possibly would.

If Trump happens to luck out and nab Pennsylvania then Michigan doesn't really matter, but it would be dumb to leave it to luck w/o any contingency plan

Also, keep in mind Nevada's government is as equally corrupt as Arizona. There economy is directly died to Gambling and Resorts - which Trump supports, and Biden doesn't. They might pull some shennanigans and faux the vote in Trump's favor.

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