Ryan has good reason for throwing caution to the wind: His time in Congress is running short.
Despite several landmark legislative wins this year, and a better-than-expected relationship with President Donald Trump, Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker. He consults a small crew of family, friends and staff for career advice, and is always cautious not to telegraph his political maneuvers. But the expectation of his impending departure has escaped the hushed confines of Ryans inner circle and permeated the upper-most echelons of the GOP. In recent interviews with three dozen people who know the speakerfellow lawmakers, congressional and administration aides, conservative intellectuals and Republican lobbyistsnot a single person believed Ryan will stay in Congress past 2018.
Ryan was tiring of D.C. even before reluctantly accepting the speakership. He told his predecessor, John Boehner, that it would be his last job in politicsand that it wasnt a long-term proposition. In the months following Trumps victory, he began contemplating the scenarios of his departure. More recently, over closely held conversations with his kitchen cabinet, Ryans preference has become clear: He would like to serve through Election Day 2018 and retire ahead of the next Congress. This would give Ryan a final legislative year to chase his second white whale, entitlement reform, while using his unrivaled fundraising prowess to help protect the House majorityall with the benefit of averting an ugly internecine power struggle during election season. Ryan has never loved the job; he oozes aggravation when discussing intra-party debates over micro-tactics," and friends say he feels like hes running a daycare center. On a personal level, going home at the end of next year would allow Ryan, who turns 48 next month, to keep promises to family; his three children are in or entering their teenage years, and Ryan, whose father died at 55, wants desperately to live at home with them full-time before they begin flying the nest. The best part of this scenario, people close to the speaker emphasize: He wouldnt have to share the ballot with Trump again in 2020.
And yet speculation is building that, Ryan, even fresh off his tax-reform triumph, might not be able to leave on his own terms. He now faces a massive pileup of cannot-fail bills in January and February. Its an outrageous legislative lift: Congress must, in the coming weeks, fund the government, raise the debt ceiling, modify spending caps, address the continuation of health-care subsidies, shell out additional funds for disaster relief and deal with the millions of undocumented young immigrants whose protected status has been thrown into limbo. It represents the most menacing stretch of Ryans speakershipone that will almost certainly require him to break promises made to his conference and give significant concessions to Democrats in exchange for their votes. To meet key deadlines, hell have to approve sizable spending increases and legal status for minors who came to the U.S. illegallytwo things that could raise the ire of the GOP base and embolden his conservative rivals on Capitol Hill. There is no great outcome available, Ryan has conceded to some trusted associatesonly survival. Win the day. Win the next day. And then win the week, Ryan has been preaching to his leadership team.
The speaker can't afford to admit hes a lame-duckhis fundraising capacity and dealmaking leverage would be vastly diminished, making the House all the more difficult to govern. When asked at the end of a Thursday morning press conference if he was leaving soon, Ryan shot a quick no over his shoulder as he walked out of the room.
He knows the writing's on the wall. His party is about to get shellacked in next year's elections, and he isn't about to get involved after that mess. ---
When it is obvious that the goals cannot be reached, don't adjust the goals, adjust the action steps. - Confucius
