Current Events > A.I. expected to replace 1/3 of jobs by 2030

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/technology/ai-will-transform-the-economy-but-how-much-and-how-soon.html

The McKinsey Global Institute published a report on Wednesday about automation and jobs, sketching out different paths the technology might take and its effect on workers, by job category in several countries. One finding: Up to one third of the American work force will have to switch to new occupations by 2030, in about a dozen years.
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Florida was expected to be underwater by 2010. Science isn't reliable. Only believe what your own two eyes tell you.
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this won't happen
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More robot doom porn. Not buying it.
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lilORANG posted...

Florida was expected to be underwater by 2010. Science isn't reliable. Only believe what your own two eyes tell you.

Damn_Underscore posted...

this won't happen

Don't underestimate a corporation's desire to increase productivity and lower production costs. >_>
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Truck driving is like the most common job in the US and that could easily be replaced with self driving technology when that improves over the next decade or so.
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lilORANG posted...

Florida was expected to be underwater by 2010. Science isn't reliable. Only believe what your own two eyes tell you.

ITP David Copperfield is literally magic and optical illusions do not exist.
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bump
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When they invent protectrons I'll be out of a job. Until then..
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That's awesome. But there's still a lot of years and a lot of people who need employment until then.
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Can these people retrain or educate themselves in the meantime? I'm sure there was a similar uproar when the horse and buggy industry was going out of style.
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16-BITTER posted...

And for the record, I work in automation, so I have a pretty good handle on its limitations. Obviously in the distant future the sky's the limit, but in the near future, I just don't see it being widespread. Automation is best utilized for consistent, repetitive tasks; they can be simple or complex tasks, but efficient systems have to be able to operate within a stable, predictable environment. There's just too much that could go wrong in interstate trucking for me to believe that it would be cost-effective to implement a machine with so many possible fail states: you'd need elaborate remote monitoring or basically have to have a human riding along with it anyway.

The only way this would work is setting a hub along the major interstates, and having regional drivers picking up and dropping off loads at these hub centers. Each truck would still have a driver in it in case the system broke and they would have to go manual. Considering that it's pretty cheap to hire immigrants to drive your trucks, I don't think automation will matter to any but the biggest trucking empires out there.
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16-BITTER posted...

At the end of the day, it'll probably still be cheaper for companies to keep human drivers on the payroll.

Yeah maybe for the next 10-15 years. But what about when this technology becomes cheaper, more efficient, and drastically better than any human driver could possibly be. What about 30, 40, or even 50 years from now? You really think automated trucks won't completely replace human driven trucks in 50+ years? No way. They will be safer and be able to drive at speeds completely impossible for humans to drive at, and human driven cars and trucks will eventually be made illegal. This isn't matter of if that will happen, it's only a matter of how long before that happens.
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This scares me sadly :(
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My resumes will be better than AIs. They'll put down "artificial intelligence" and I can put down "real intelligence"
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Hard enough finding a job already, I can't imagine how fucked I'm going to be when automation booms within the next few years.
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Get ready for serfdom you non robot owning poors :))))))
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software developers were supposed to be replaced by AI 10 years ago
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Up
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This is happening, and you gotta wonder what it will do to society.
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Disappointingly low imo
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If you look back in the last 30 years, automation replaced a lot of jobs too. But you know what, it also created tons to new jobs.

Look at the evolution of publishing:
https://www.lucidpress.com/blog/evolution-desktop-publishing

Every job that a computer replaced, created more new jobs that required new skills. Maybe that's what people are afraid of...acquiring new skills. The fear mongering nonsense is strong with the lazy.
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GreatEvilEmpire posted...

If you look back in the last 30 years, automation replaced a lot of jobs too. But you know what, it also created tons to new jobs.

Look at the evolution of publishing:
https://www.lucidpress.com/blog/evolution-desktop-publishing

Every job that a computer replaced, created more new jobs that required new skills. Maybe that's what people are afraid of...acquiring new skills. The fear mongering nonsense is strong with the lazy.

Automation is going to just start replacing jobs though, and we're not going to need billions of people as programmers and repairmen. When the automatons are autonomous, they won't need so much input from less effecient humans. I'm not fearmongering though. That's a future worth getting excited for.
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dont worry guys if we close our eyes, plug our ears, and give all of our money to the 1%, they will save us from this scary future
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This is just one possible outcome of several they predicted lol.
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hockeybub89 posted...

Automation is going to just start replacing jobs though, and we're not going to need billions of people as programmers and repairmen. When the automatons are autonomous, they won't need so much input from less effecient humans. I'm not fearmongering though. That's a future worth getting excited for.

You live in some kind of fantasy world from over 100 years ago. It's not like the movies where everything is so efficient. The real world is a mess and technology doesn't advance as fast as people imagine. I work in Silicon Valley, I know a thing or two about technology.
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The article didn't bother with detailing what jobs, and a quick glance at the 101-page PDF linked from the article didn't help much either.
http://www.aiindex.org/

Maybe AI needs to take over clickbait journalism...

Yeah but we dont need UBI or anything if 1/3 of jobs are gone the unemployed just gonna pull up their bootstraps and make a job for themselves!

thrashmetal14 posted...

Yeah but we dont need UBI or anything if 1/3 of jobs are gone the unemployed just gonna pull up their bootstraps and make a job for themselves!

see also:
GreatEvilEmpire posted...

If you look back in the last 30 years, automation replaced a lot of jobs too. But you know what, it also created tons to new jobs.

Look at the evolution of publishing:
https://www.lucidpress.com/blog/evolution-desktop-publishing

Every job that a computer replaced, created more new jobs that required new skills. Maybe that's what people are afraid of...acquiring new skills. The fear mongering nonsense is strong with the lazy.

Questionmarktarius posted...

thrashmetal14 posted...

Yeah but we dont need UBI or anything if 1/3 of jobs are gone the unemployed just gonna pull up their bootstraps and make a job for themselves!

see also:
GreatEvilEmpire posted...

If you look back in the last 30 years, automation replaced a lot of jobs too. But you know what, it also created tons to new jobs.

Look at the evolution of publishing:
https://www.lucidpress.com/blog/evolution-desktop-publishing

Every job that a computer replaced, created more new jobs that required new skills. Maybe that's what people are afraid of...acquiring new skills. The fear mongering nonsense is strong with the lazy.

So everybody will be a robotics engineer until we create robots that fix other robots.

First thing to go is manufacturing.
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thrashmetal14 posted...

So everybody will be a robotics engineer until we create robots that fix other robots.

If you can't make it as a robotics engineer, you can try to be part of robot maintenance, inspection and repair. And we have those jobs in manufacturing plants around the world right now.

If you're really unskilled, you can clean the grime off of the parts.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

Maybe AI needs to take over clickbait journalism...

Pretty sure that would be more real than CNN.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

thrashmetal14 posted...

Yeah but we dont need UBI or anything if 1/3 of jobs are gone the unemployed just gonna pull up their bootstraps and make a job for themselves!

see also:
GreatEvilEmpire posted...

If you look back in the last 30 years, automation replaced a lot of jobs too. But you know what, it also created tons to new jobs.

Look at the evolution of publishing:
https://www.lucidpress.com/blog/evolution-desktop-publishing

Every job that a computer replaced, created more new jobs that required new skills. Maybe that's what people are afraid of...acquiring new skills. The fear mongering nonsense is strong with the lazy.

Also this is just stupid. Anyone with basic knowledge of how we've progressed can tell you the next 30 years will be nothing at all like the 30 prior. Not even comparable. These types of statements show a glaring ignorance on the subject matter.
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GreatEvilEmpire posted...

thrashmetal14 posted...

So everybody will be a robotics engineer until we create robots that fix other robots.

If you can't make it as a robotics engineer, you can try to be part of robot maintenance, inspection and repair. And we have those jobs in manufacturing plants around the world right now.

If you're really unskilled, you can clean the grime off of the parts.

How many billions of robot maintenance workers do we need? Makes it sound like they would be really shitty robots.
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lilORANG posted...

Florida was expected to be underwater by 2010. Science isn't reliable. Only believe what your own two eyes tell you.

Damn_Underscore posted...

this won't happen

Kolibri X posted...

More robot doom porn. Not buying it.

Did you know that once upon a time there was a job that consisted in walking around knocking on people's doors to wake them up because alarm clocks didn't exist? It's hard to believe I know.

When is the last time somebody landed a sweet sweet job because of their sick typewriter skills?

The ramifications of AI and machine learning will kill many, many jobs. Do you really think that Turbotax isn't eating away the income of tax prep people and even some accountants? Do you really think that automated software isn't reducing demand or pay for translators? E-discovery is substituting thousands and thousands of recent law graduates too. This is happening right now, this is not something that's still in the future. Now think about all drivers who will lose their jobs thanks to self driving vehicles.

Sure, new jobs will come along, and this tech will create new jobs. But they will be fewer jobs (that is the whole purpose) and require a more sophisticated, highly educated candidate to fill the position, so the Bubbas, Cleetus and Donnies will still be out of a job.

REMercsChamp posted...

Can these people retrain or educate themselves in the meantime? I'm sure there was a similar uproar when the horse and buggy industry was going out of style.

The old horse and buggy is today's car. The old car is tomorrow's self driving car.

I don't see how a middle aged car/taxi/limo/truck driver will go back to college, get a computer science degree, pick up some certifications and get a 3.2 GPA so he can get a job with whatever Uber programmer / self driving car technician job will come up instead.

Zeeak4444 posted...

Also this is just stupid. Anyone with basic knowledge of how we've progressed can tell you the next 30 years will be nothing at all like the 30 prior. Not even comparable. These types of statements show a glaring ignorance on the subject matter.

What do you know about the matter other than fear mongering garbage? It seems like you lack basic knowledge of technology.

The Google self driving car project started in 2008. It took 10 years for it to deploy in the sunny areas of Arizona. It still doesn't work very well in certain weather conditions. When I test rode it in 2015, I though it was ready, but it wasn't. It took them 2 full years to feel confident enough to deploy a limited fleet. It took them 10 years (12 years if you count Google Maps, which is crucial for the cars to get around effectively) to master the LIDAR system and mapping of thousands of objects.

The whole industry is in infancy and it created an incredible amount of jobs for the industry, but barely replaced any jobs in the process. But you guys don't use any critical thinking skills, just fear mongering. 2030 is 13 years from now, roughly the same amount of time it took for Google to create the Waymo project. You tell me how in 13 years, automation can replace 1/3 of the jobs in the world.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSKi8HfcxEk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
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lilORANG posted...

Florida was expected to be underwater by 2010. Science isn't reliable. Only believe what your own two eyes tell you.

And how many bible-thumping world ending apocalypses have we had? Let's go with science. AKA, the process that got us satellite communications, medicine, and unfortunately, the ability for people like you to spread your misinformation and stupid opinions beyond a dirt farm in Alabama.
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GreatEvilEmpire posted...

Zeeak4444 posted...

Also this is just stupid. Anyone with basic knowledge of how we've progressed can tell you the next 30 years will be nothing at all like the 30 prior. Not even comparable. These types of statements show a glaring ignorance on the subject matter.

What do you know about the matter other than fear mongering garbage? It seems like you lack basic knowledge of technology.

The Google self driving car project started in 2008. It took 10 years for it to deploy in the sunny areas of Arizona. It still doesn't work very well in certain weather conditions. When I test rode it in 2015, I though it was ready, but it wasn't. It took them 2 full years to feel confident enough to deploy a limited fleet. It took them 10 years (12 years if you count Google Maps, which is crucial for the cars to get around effectively) to master the LIDAR system and mapping of thousands of objects.

The whole industry is in infancy and it created an incredible amount of jobs for the industry, but barely replaced any jobs in the process. But you guys don't use any critical thinking skills, just fear mongering. 2030 is 13 years from now, roughly the same amount of time it took for Google to create the Waymo project. You tell me how in 13 years, automation can replace 1/3 of the jobs in the world.

Idk why you're focusing on cars.

I was addressing the workforce as a whole and the only two posts I read was questionmarks quoting you and the one directly below.

Nothing you posted changes what I said.
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Fear mongering is kind of a bad choice of words because not everyone who says robots will take jobs is doing so to make people afraid of automation.
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Zeeak4444 posted...

Idk why you're focusing on cars.

I was addressing the workforce as a whole and the only two posts I read was questionmarks quoting you and the one directly below.

Nothing you posted changes what I said.

Because people have been talking about cars for a good portion of the topic. The workforce will adapt, like it always had. Those who are unable to adapt will still be there to clean the grime off of the machines.
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GreatEvilEmpire posted...

Zeeak4444 posted...

Idk why you're focusing on cars.

I was addressing the workforce as a whole and the only two posts I read was questionmarks quoting you and the one directly below.

Nothing you posted changes what I said.

Because people have been talking about cars for a good portion of the topic. The workforce will adapt, like it always had. Those who are unable to adapt will still be there to clean the grime off of the machines.

I think you're missing the point of smart, self-autonomous machines. The idea is for them to be able to operate on their own and learn new things. That is where automation is going. It isn't about making it easier for humans to do jobs, but to do jobs without the need of humans.

I don't even understand why you want us to continue to have a world where low-skill, low-pay jobs exist just for the sake of keeping people employed.
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hockeybub89 posted...

Fear mongering is kind of a bad choice of words because not everyone who says robots will take jobs is doing so to make people afraid of automation.

It's fear mongering by the left to make a push for socialism/UBI. Automation is nothing more than a weapon to push that agenda.
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