Current Events > Drake Equation is a tautology and you should be ashamed of taking it seriously.

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RetuenOfDevsman 04/12/24 4:01:56 PM #1:	You know that joke "how long is a piece of string" where the answer is "twice as long as half its length"? The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting." --- There's a difference between canon and not-stupid. <cite>RetuenOfDevsman posted [p:979875064] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>You know that joke "how long is a piece of string" where the answer is "twice as long as half its length"?The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting." </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DrizztLink 04/12/24 4:02:56 PM #2:	The Drake Equation? Nathan Fillion + Lara Croft = Nathan Drake? --- He/Him http://guidesmedia.ign.com/guides/9846/images/slowpoke.gif https://i.imgur.com/M8h2ATe.png https://i.imgur.com/6ezFwG1.png <cite>DrizztLink posted [p:979875077] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>The Drake Equation?Nathan Fillion + Lara Croft = Nathan Drake? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SquantoZ 04/12/24 4:03:39 PM #3:	Is this about Drake's peen? --- "Context Matters" <cite>SquantoZ posted [p:979875086] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>Is this about Drake's peen? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
sellerdore 04/12/24 4:03:58 PM #4:	could you elaborate a little more on this? >The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting." not sure what you mean --- "Come out to the coast, we'll get together, have a few laughs..." http://www.last.fm/user/kmal415 <cite>sellerdore posted [p:979875088] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>could you elaborate a little more on this?>The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting."not sure what you mean </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
UnholyMudcrab 04/12/24 4:06:56 PM #5:	I'm not really sure how you could describe the Drake equation as tautological. That's... not what that means? --- http://i.imgur.com/VeNBg.gif http://i.imgur.com/gd5jC8q.gif http://i.imgur.com/PKIy7.gif http://i.imgur.com/3p29JqP.gif <cite>UnholyMudcrab posted [p:979875133] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>I'm not really sure how you could describe the Drake equation as tautological. That's... not what that means? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Zero_Destroyer 04/12/24 4:08:14 PM #6:	I don't really care about the equation itself but it's fair to assume other intelligent life exists and people generally lack the understanding that our scope of reach with any serious detail is highly limited (and) we've been at it for a few decades with minimal priority or effort. --- Enjoy movies and television? Check out my blog! I do reviews and analyses. http://fictionrantreview.wordpress.com/ (The Force Awakens spoiler review up!) <cite>Zero_Destroyer posted [p:979875151] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>I don't really care about the equation itself but it's fair to assume other intelligent life exists and people generally lack the understanding that our scope of reach with any serious detail is highly limited (and) we've been at it for a few decades with minimal priority or effort. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
RetuenOfDevsman 04/12/24 4:13:04 PM #7:	sellerdore posted... could you elaborate a little more on this? >The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting." not sure what you mean All he did was put the number of alien civilizations = the number of alien civilizations and kept multiplying one side by 1 over and over. It's like saying 4 = 4 * 13/13. Or, if you wanna match the form more closely, 4 = 4 * 13/9 * 9/7 * 7/13 Except Drake couldn't even be bothered to provide actual values. So it's more like 4 = 4 * x/y * y/z * z/x --- There's a difference between canon and not-stupid. <cite>RetuenOfDevsman posted [p:979875233] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>sellerdore posted... </cite><quote>could you elaborate a little more on this?>The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting."not sure what you mean</quote>All he did was put the number of alien civilizations = the number of alien civilizations and kept multiplying one side by 1 over and over.It's like saying 4 = 4 * 13/13.Or, if you wanna match the form more closely, 4 = 4 * 13/9 * 9/7 * 7/13Except Drake couldn't even be bothered to provide actual values. So it's more like 4 = 4 * x/y * y/z * z/x </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AlphaWhelp 04/12/24 4:13:08 PM #8:	RetuenOfDevsman posted... You know that joke "how long is a piece of string" where the answer is "twice as long as half its length"? The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting." Tbf it's more interesting than something that is less interesting --- 'Do you remember, Odin, when in bygone days, we mixed our blood together? You said you would never drink ale unless it were brought to both of us.' ~ Loki <cite>AlphaWhelp posted [p:979875235] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>RetuenOfDevsman posted... </cite><quote>You know that joke "how long is a piece of string" where the answer is "twice as long as half its length"?The Drake Equation is like if a bunch of people heard that joke and said "huh, interesting."</quote>Tbf it's more interesting than something that is less interesting </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
teep_ 04/12/24 4:17:30 PM #9:	Damn, I guess this random CEman with 150 karma and over 1800 active posts knows more than leading astrophysicists. I should listen to him and give serious thought to what he's saying --- [teep is] an evil genius who will one day kill us all - Choco teep is a God damn genius - Zodd <cite>teep_ posted [p:979875304] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>Damn, I guess this random CEman with 150 karma and over 1800 active posts knows more than leading astrophysicists. I should listen to him and give serious thought to what he's saying </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
RetuenOfDevsman 04/12/24 4:18:13 PM #10:	teep_ posted... Damn, I guess this random CEman with 150 karma and over 1800 active posts knows more than leading astrophysicists. I should listen to him and give serious thought to what he's saying You really gonna appeal to authority and ad hominem in the same sentence --- There's a difference between canon and not-stupid. <cite>RetuenOfDevsman posted [p:979875315] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>teep_ posted... </cite><quote>Damn, I guess this random CEman with 150 karma and over 1800 active posts knows more than leading astrophysicists. I should listen to him and give serious thought to what he's saying</quote>You really gonna appeal to authority and ad hominem in the same sentence </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
RetuenOfDevsman 04/12/24 4:19:50 PM #11:	I mean, look. I can do it too. Ever wondered how many ants there are in the world? It's the number of ants in an anthill times the number of anthills. I'm smart as hell. --- There's a difference between canon and not-stupid. <cite>RetuenOfDevsman posted [p:979875333] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>I mean, look. I can do it too. Ever wondered how many ants there are in the world? It's the number of ants in an anthill times the number of anthills. I'm smart as hell. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Baron_Ox 04/12/24 4:20:33 PM #12:	it's not an appeal to authority when it deals with experts in the relevant field(s) --- "I could never encapsulate all my cosmicality on my own." - mr. MFN eXquire. https://imgur.com/4CDGncR <cite>Baron_Ox posted [p:979875343] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>it's not an appeal to authority when it deals with experts in the relevant field(s) </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
darkmaian23 04/12/24 4:28:45 PM #13:	teep_ posted... Damn, I guess this random CEman with 150 karma and over 1800 active posts knows more than leading astrophysicists. I should listen to him and give serious thought to what he's saying This topic doesn't feel very serious, but the Drake Equation has long been viewed as nonsense by academics since it was devised. It's just something interesting to think about it, and I've never seen anything that suggested Drake himself ever meant it as anything else. --- Cuteness is justice! It's the law. <cite>darkmaian23 posted [p:979875467] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>teep_ posted... </cite><quote>Damn, I guess this random CEman with 150 karma and over 1800 active posts knows more than leading astrophysicists. I should listen to him and give serious thought to what he's saying</quote>This topic doesn't feel very serious, but the Drake Equation has long been viewed as nonsense by academics since it was devised. It's just something interesting to think about it, and I've never seen anything that suggested Drake himself ever meant it as anything else. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
WingsOfGood 04/12/24 4:35:32 PM #14:	it is missing values is all which means you cannot rely on it as a proof because the equation drastically changes depending on certain values that we have 0 idea about yet that said the point of it is more "when you got a guesstimate of all the values you can make a decision" and less how people today use it as proof <cite>WingsOfGood posted [p:979875577] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>it is missing values is allwhich means you cannot rely on it as a proofbecause the equation drastically changes depending on certain values that we have 0 idea about yetthat said the point of it is more "when you got a guesstimate of all the values you can make a decision" and less how people today use it as proof </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
RetuenOfDevsman 04/12/24 4:56:11 PM #15:	Baron_Ox posted... it's not an appeal to authority when it deals with experts in the relevant field(s) That's literally exactly what appeal to authority is. --- There's a difference between canon and not-stupid. <cite>RetuenOfDevsman posted [p:979875830] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>Baron_Ox posted... </cite><quote>it's not an appeal to authority when it deals with experts in the relevant field(s)</quote>That's literally exactly what appeal to authority is. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DrizztLink 04/12/24 5:02:19 PM #16:	RetuenOfDevsman posted... That's literally exactly what appeal to authority is. An argument from authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), also called an appeal to authority, or *argumentum ad verecundiam, is a form of argument in which the opinion of an influential figure is used as evidence to support an argument. The argument from authority is a logical fallacy (also known as ad verecundiam* fallacy), and obtaining knowledge in this way is fallible. However, in particular circumstances, it is sound to use as a practical although fallible way of obtaining information that can be considered generally likely to be correct if the authority is a real and pertinent intellectual authority and there is universal consensus about these statements in this field. This is specially the case when the revision of all the information and data 'from scratch' would impede advances in an investigation or education. Further ways of validating a source include: evaluating the veracity of previous works by the author, their competence on the topic, their coherence, their conflicts of interest, etc. --- He/Him http://guidesmedia.ign.com/guides/9846/images/slowpoke.gif https://i.imgur.com/M8h2ATe.png https://i.imgur.com/6ezFwG1.png <cite>DrizztLink posted [p:979875932] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>RetuenOfDevsman posted... </cite><quote>That's literally exactly what appeal to authority is.</quote><quote>An argument from authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), also called an appeal to authority, or argumentum ad verecundiam, is a form of argument in which the opinion of an influential figure is used as evidence to support an argument.The argument from authority is a logical fallacy (also known as ad verecundiam fallacy), and obtaining knowledge in this way is fallible.However, in particular circumstances, it is sound to use as a practical although fallible way of obtaining information that can be considered generally likely to be correct if the authority is a real and pertinent intellectual authority and there is universal consensus about these statements in this field. This is specially the case when the revision of all the information and data 'from scratch' would impede advances in an investigation or education. Further ways of validating a source include: evaluating the veracity of previous works by the author, their competence on the topic, their coherence, their conflicts of interest, etc.</quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Baron_Ox 04/12/24 5:04:18 PM #17:	nah, an appeal to authority is when you're willing to use someone's influence/position, regardless of expertise, to make your argument. like, citing the CDC as to why you should take the Covid Vaccine would not be an appeal to authority, while using someone like Joe Rogan's arguments as to why you shouldn't, would be. edit: at post 15 --- "I could never encapsulate all my cosmicality on my own." - mr. MFN eXquire. https://imgur.com/4CDGncR <cite>Baron_Ox posted [p:979875963] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>nah, an appeal to authority is when you're willing to use someone's influence/position, regardless of expertise, to make your argument. like, citing the CDC as to why you should take the Covid Vaccine would not be an appeal to authority, while using someone like Joe Rogan's arguments as to why you shouldn't, would be. edit: at post 15 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
kirbymuncher 04/12/24 5:09:20 PM #18:	RetuenOfDevsman posted... Except Drake couldn't even be bothered to provide actual values. So it's more like 4 = 4 * x/y * y/z * z/x I think the point is that it is sort of a framework to help people piece together all the different steps and break the problem down. It doesn't actually give you an answer but it helps you make an estimate based on individual probabilities you believe are true rather than just shouting a number out of nowhere. It's a bit dumb with comparisons to more real-life scale things but imo makes a fair bit of sense with very large/small numbers since people are bad at dealing with those normally. Yes, the universe is extremely massive. But it turns out if you take a massive number and multiply it by 0.001 five tiems in a row, it gets surprisingly small --- THIS IS WHAT I HATE A BOUT EVREY WEBSITE!! THERES SO MUCH PEOPLE READING AND POSTING STUIPED STUFF <cite>kirbymuncher posted [p:979876051] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>RetuenOfDevsman posted... </cite><quote>Except Drake couldn't even be bothered to provide actual values. So it's more like 4 = 4 * x/y * y/z * z/x</quote>I think the point is that it is sort of a framework to help people piece together all the different steps and break the problem down. It doesn't actually give you an answer but it helps you make an estimate based on individual probabilities you believe are true rather than just shouting a number out of nowhere.It's a bit dumb with comparisons to more real-life scale things but imo makes a fair bit of sense with very large/small numbers since people are bad at dealing with those normally. Yes, the universe is extremely massive. But it turns out if you take a massive number and multiply it by 0.001 five tiems in a row, it gets surprisingly small </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Starks 04/12/24 5:19:52 PM #19:	Requirements like tide pools, opportunistic extinctions, etc just to match earth really bring the down odds in my mind for anything above bacteria being widespread. --- Paid for by StarksPAC, a registered 501(c)(4) <cite>Starks posted [p:979876208] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>Requirements like tide pools, opportunistic extinctions, etc just to match earth really bring the down odds in my mind for anything above bacteria being widespread. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AlphaWhelp 04/12/24 5:22:21 PM #20:	Starks posted... Requirements like tide pools, opportunistic extinctions, etc just to match earth really bring the down odds in my mind for anything above bacteria being widespread. Once you get bacteria everything else is guaranteed. Just takes time. --- 'Do you remember, Odin, when in bygone days, we mixed our blood together? You said you would never drink ale unless it were brought to both of us.' ~ Loki <cite>AlphaWhelp posted [p:979876250] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>Starks posted... </cite><quote>Requirements like tide pools, opportunistic extinctions, etc just to match earth really bring the down odds in my mind for anything above bacteria being widespread.</quote>Once you get bacteria everything else is guaranteed. Just takes time. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
RetuenOfDevsman 04/12/24 5:31:15 PM #21:	DrizztLink posted... It's not especially relevant here if astrophysicists don't pay particular credence to the Drake equation but your assertion is simply incorrect. If I'm reading that right, it does still count as the fallacy, just with a side note that it's got a decent track record of being ok anyway. But sure. I retract saying it. Arguing over fallacies is not the point of the topic. --- There's a difference between canon and not-stupid. <cite>RetuenOfDevsman posted [p:979876391] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>DrizztLink posted... </cite><quote>It's not especially relevant here if astrophysicists don't pay particular credence to the Drake equation but your assertion is simply incorrect.</quote>If I'm reading that right, it does still count as the fallacy, just with a side note that it's got a decent track record of being ok anyway.But sure. I retract saying it. Arguing over fallacies is not the point of the topic. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
sellerdore 04/12/24 5:35:54 PM #22:	RetuenOfDevsman posted... I mean, look. I can do it too. Ever wondered how many ants there are in the world? It's the number of ants in an anthill times the number of anthills. to play devil's advocate for a second -- let's say we DO want to calculate how many ants there are in the world. your "equation" would be incorrect because lots of ants don't even build/live in anthills; they can live in completely-underground colonies, in trees, etc. And even some ants don't even care about ant hills; they just build temporary residences overnight and leave the next day. so, the "equation" would be : `# of ants in the world = ( avg # of ant hills in the world * avg # of ants who live in a typical ant hill ) + ( avg # of ant-bearing trees * avg # of ants who live in those trees ) + ( avg # of ants who don't build hills ) + ...` etc etc etc even if this is totally handwavey and made up, i'd argue this is actually a useful exercise and not tautological at all, because it breaks down the larger estimation problem into more manageable estimates (albeit at a very high level) and it establishes (general) mathematical relationships between them. this is pretty much what the Drake equation was only ever meant to do -- an attempt to rationalize the very large problem of extraterrestrial life into a set of smaller problems/math relationships that can be tackled/estimated more easily. It's a ballpark/back of the envelope type of thing. it was never meant to be a formal definition of anything AFAIK --- "Come out to the coast, we'll get together, have a few laughs..." http://www.last.fm/user/kmal415 <cite>sellerdore posted [p:979876479] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>RetuenOfDevsman posted... </cite><quote>I mean, look. I can do it too. Ever wondered how many ants there are in the world? It's the number of ants in an anthill times the number of anthills.</quote>to play devil's advocate for a second -- let's say we DO want to calculate how many ants there are in the world.your "equation" would be incorrect because lots of ants don't even build/live in anthills; they can live in completely-underground colonies, in trees, etc. And even some ants don't even care about ant hills; they just build temporary residences overnight and leave the next day. so, the "equation" would be :# of ants in the world = ( avg # of ant hills in the world * avg # of ants who live in a typical ant hill ) + ( avg # of ant-bearing trees * avg # of ants who live in those trees ) + ( avg # of ants who don't build hills ) + ... etc etc etceven if this is totally handwavey and made up, i'd argue this is actually a useful exercise and not tautological at all, because it breaks down the larger estimation problem into more manageable estimates (albeit at a very high level) and it establishes (general) mathematical relationships between them.this is pretty much what the Drake equation was only ever meant to do -- an attempt to rationalize the very large problem of extraterrestrial life into a set of smaller problems/math relationships that can be tackled/estimated more easily. It's a ballpark/back of the envelope type of thing. it was never meant to be a formal definition of anything AFAIK </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
sellerdore 04/12/24 5:41:28 PM #23:	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation The equation was formulated in 1961 by Frank Drake, not for purposes of quantifying the number of civilizations, but as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue at the first scientific meeting on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI).[4][5] literally meant to be a conversation starter. And boy, was it! We are still talking about it 60+ years later --- "Come out to the coast, we'll get together, have a few laughs..." http://www.last.fm/user/kmal415 <cite>sellerdore posted [p:979876559] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation<quote>The equation was formulated in 1961 by Frank Drake, not for purposes of quantifying the number of civilizations, but as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue at the first scientific meeting on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI).[4][5]</quote>literally meant to be a conversation starter. And boy, was it! We are still talking about it 60+ years later </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Pogo_Marimo 04/12/24 5:49:47 PM #24:	It it by definition not a tautology because it's not a truth statement. It couldn't be a tautology if it wanted to. It's an equation. You are free to enter any values into and you'll get the output. How useful or valuable the equation is to predicting reality is an entirely different matter. --- 'Cause you know that I have no fear, ain't gonna walk into the river and disappear. I'm gonna be a powerful man. Red blood running down the broken sand. <cite>Pogo_Marimo posted [p:979876668] in Drake Equa... [t:80745505]...</cite> <quote>It it by definition not a tautology because it's not a truth statement. It couldn't be a tautology if it wanted to. It's an equation. You are free to enter any values into and you'll get the output. How useful or valuable the equation is to predicting reality is an entirely different matter. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > Drake Equation is a tautology and you should be ashamed of taking it seriously. (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > Drake Equation is a tautology and you should be ashamed of taking it seriously.