Current Events > Crypto might not necessarily have been a bubble pop but a Canary

(+) Yeah! (+)

Housing is in a bubble right? Stocks? What else?

This could be the canary that let's us know this isn't just any old recession coming. Could another great depression be on the horizon?

Don't forget all the crazy food prices skyrocketing alongside rich people profits and the government doing basically nothing to combat any of this.

reminder to a thread I made a week or so ago

AT THE TOP VALUE THE STOCK MARKET HAD

FED EMPLOYEES SOLD ALL OF THEIR STOCKS

ALL

all of their stocks

Stocks dont reflect the actual economy? Though we are probably in a recession thanks to rising prices and thus consumers having less purchasing power and participating less in the economy. Also gas prices are taking a big chunk out peoples discretionary monthly budget and thats for the families that are well off. For poorer people might mean not being able to afford necessities.

JuanCarlos1 posted...

Stocks dont reflect the actual economy?

housing, other assets, jobs, food, everything

"StOcKs dOn'T rEfLeCt ThE EcOnOmY!!!"

we basically are in a recession already btw

WingsOfGood posted...

housing, other assets, jobs, food, everything

"StOcKs dOn'T rEfLeCt ThE EcOnOmY!!!"

we basically are in a recession already btw

Guess what, those are actual things.

Crypto is nothing.

Comparing cryptocurrency with either currency or stocks has always been and will always be disingenuous b*******.

It's a con and always has been.

I think the bird you're thinking of is cuckoo

I wouldn't mind the housing bubble to pop a little. I'm planning on buying a house this year and if it isn't at an inflated price all the better.

When you buy a house, you buy an actual thing. A thing you can live in. Sure, the bubble may burst and the value of your house may go down. But it's still a house.

When you buy a cryptocurrency, you are buying literally nothing. So if that bubble bursts, you have literally nothing.

DarkRoast posted...

Guess what, those are actual things.

Crypto is nothing.

Comparing cryptocurrency with either currency or stocks has always been and will always be disingenuous b*******.

Crypto isn't nothing.
It was something rich people were using to park money in.

How does a Crypto "bubble" pop ?

Rich people pull their money out.

Now, there can be different reasons for why that is. It could even be that it was a scam to make bagholders.

BUT

This is a HUGE but

It could also be that these rich people are aware of the economic downturn and are pulling their money out in preparation for a giant battering....

you know like the FED guys did last years pulling out ALL THEIR STOCKS..

nah, no way anything of this correlates to each other. of course not. right?

WingsOfGood posted...

Crypto isn't nothing.
It was something rich people were using to park money in.

How does a Crypto "bubble" pop ?

Rich people pull their money out.

Now, there can be different reasons for why that is. It could even be that it was a scam to make bagholders.

BUT

This is a HUGE but

It could also be that these rich people are aware of the economic downturn and are pulling their money out in preparation for a giant battering....

you know like the FED guys did last years pulling out ALL THEIR STOCKS..

nah, no way anything of this correlates to each other. of course not. right?

Protip: the rich people get out when stuff like Luna and USDT collapse overnight.

The only thing that holds crypto together at all is faith in the system. And that faith has been lost.

DarkRoast posted...

When you buy a cryptocurrency, you are buying literally nothing. So if that bubble bursts, you have literally nothing.

Can't be a bag-holder when the bag was imaginary the whole time.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/3/1/1/AAEhCpAADOX_.jpg

Is this baby's first recession or what? Rich people are ahead of the curve most of the time so every time stocks crash its pretty much a wealth transfer to them. This is how the inequality gap widens each time. Then they cry economy is crap and freeze salary increases and hiring.

JuanCarlos1 posted...

Is this baby's first recession or what? Rich people are ahead of the curve most of the time so every time stocks crash its pretty much a wealth transfer to them. This is how the inequality gap widens each time. Then they cry economy is crap and freeze salary increases and hiring.

Cryptocurrencies aren't stocks. That's the fundamental problem. Cryptocurrencies are made-up bullshit that only have value through pure speculation.

JuanCarlos1 posted...

Is this baby's first recession or what? Rich people are ahead of the curve most of the time so every time stocks crash its pretty much a wealth transfer to them. This is how the inequality gap widens each time. Then they cry economy is crap and freeze salary increases and hiring.

I am the one calling attention to this.

People still doubting the content.

Also to mention part of what causes a stock crash is rich people being ahead of the curve and pulling out. As that tanks stocks value.

Then people behind the curve see the drop and pull out at a loss. This causes a freefall.

Then later the first class of rich people will rebuy whatever they think is actually still good at lower price.

This CAN be the case with crypto too.

WingsOfGood posted...

Also to mention part of what causes a stock crash is rich people being ahead of the curve and pulling out. As that tanks stocks value.

Then people behind the curve see the drop and pull out at a loss. This causes a freefall.

Then later the first class of rich people will rebuy whatever they think is actually still good at lower price.

This CAN be the case with crypto too.

Cryptocurrencies aren't stocks. They're not regulated like stocks.
There's no safety in them. No ability to rely on hedging (Terra Luna).
They aren't backed by any government, they have no intrinsic value, and the only reason they have any monetary value is because they have, up to this point, maintained the illusion that there is some degree of stability and fallback system in place to prevent what we have just seen.

The value of a Bitcoin is 100%, what someone is willing to pay for it. Nothing else. There's no company, no object, no house, no fort knox, nothing. It's very highly complicated gambling.

This delusion needs to end.

DarkRoast posted...

Cryptocurrencies aren't stocks. They're not regulated like stocks.
There's no safety in them. No ability to rely on hedging (Terra Luna).
This delusion needs to end.

I own no crypto. Well I own a few doge only because RH gave me a free stock and I wanted out of RH so I sold it and put that into doge wanting it to go to 0.

However, you forget there is inherent value in crypto. It is not a good thing but it is a thing.
That is, crypto was a way for dark organziation like crime to shuffle money around and as far as I know that is still the case and will be in the future.

DarkRoast posted...

When you buy a house, you buy an actual thing. A thing you can live in. Sure, the bubble may burst and the value of your house may go down. But it's still a house.

To be fair, that value is just made up. The actual value a house provides (shelter) is not defined by the stock market, it's defined by its real, physical characteristics. Yes, crypto is just made up nonsense. So is money and stocks, we just collectively decided that they are worth something.

scar the 1 posted...

To be fair, that value is just made up. The actual value a house provides (shelter) is not defined by the stock market, it's defined by its real, physical characteristics. Yes, crypto is just made up nonsense. So is money and stocks, we just collectively decided that they are worth something.

All assets not valued by their actual labor and material costs are indeed made up.

If it took $100,000 to make a house that sells for $1,000,000

that is 900,000 of made up value that can "pop" just as fast as any crypto

scar the 1 posted...

So is money and stocks, we just collectively decided that they are worth something.

Cash is still a physical object, which requires no middlemen whatsoever for exchange.

stocks aren't even real it's just money laundering for rich people

Questionmarktarius posted...

Cash is still a physical object,

paper is worthless

that is why highschools teach you about the silver and gold standards of backing currency which tbh is bs in the current age

Questionmarktarius posted...

Cash is still a physical object, which requires no middlemen whatsoever for exchange.

Yeah that's true.

scar the 1 posted...

To be fair, that value is just made up. The actual value a house provides (shelter) is not defined by the stock market, it's defined by its real, physical characteristics. Yes, crypto is just made up nonsense. So is money and stocks, we just collectively decided that they are worth something.

Stocks are definitely more tangible. Between revenue, profits, debt and other factors you can determine whats the fair price of a company and decide if its a good place to park and grow money, although it is a gamble.

The housing market isn't really a bubble atm. Rich fucks are buying them to rent out, not to flip.

The earning period is forever, so as long as they set rent at a price that doesn't leave the house vacant, they're ahead. Then they also bought up the houses to leave folks with no other options. On top of that they increase rent to make it so normal people cant save a down payment. This will flatten but not burst.

zammox posted...

stocks aren't even real it's just money laundering for rich people

Stock is an ownership stake. It's a "real" thing, despite your great-granddad's GM stock from 1952 being 0.00001% ownership of the utterly worthless MTLQQ now.

Jiek_Fafn posted...

The housing market isn't really a bubble atm. Rich fucks are buying them to rent out, not to flip.

The earning period is forever, so as long as they set rent at a price that doesn't leave the house vacant, they're ahead. Then they also bought up the houses to leave folks with no other options. This will flatten but not burst.

supply and demand still exists

it is just that for housing the demand is locked under zoning laws and things like that

I forget where it was but I read a certain place got rid of single family housing zoning laws and the rent is continuing to drop

JuanCarlos1 posted...

Stocks are definitely more tangible. Between revenue, profits, debt and other factors you can determine whats the fair price of a company and decide if its a good place to park and grow money, although it is a gamble.

It's still made up tho

scar the 1 posted...

To be fair, that value is just made up. The actual value a house provides (shelter) is not defined by the stock market, it's defined by its real, physical characteristics. Yes, crypto is just made up nonsense. So is money and stocks, we just collectively decided that they are worth something.

Except a countries currency has value based on the backing of said government and the economic output or opportunity for output within a country. Yes the value is based on confidence, but that confidence is in a tangible output.

Same with (most) stocks. The value is based on the confidence in the company based on their ability to earn money and provide a return to shareholders. It can also be based on potential output for a company (lots of tech stocks, tesla). But in most cases there is a tangible item, idea, or opportunity.

I havent quite figured out what cryptos output is, other than speculation it may be adopted in some places as a legitimate currency. Personally i think countries will create their own and restrict use of these kinds of decentralized currencies.

remember when Russia's currency went to freefall?

super tangible value though is a country's confidence

Dollar - Backed by the faith in the stability of the US government
Bitcoin - Backed by the faith in the stability of a dude who thinks GameStop NFTs are the future

Housing isn't a bubble, it's a shortage with only well off players. The last one was a shortage with too many people who couldn't afford their loan

The 2008 popped and flooded the market with houses because the loans failed, the market today has no one falling short

I do wish AirBNB was regulated some. They're affecting the market in places pretty strongly, some places not so much

Unsugarized_Foo posted...

Housing isn't a bubble, it's a shortage with only well off players.

It's less a "shortage" than it is "speculative hoarding".

Questionmarktarius posted...

It's less a "shortage" than it is "speculative hoarding".

Either way, it's different and not poised to flop.

I do wish AirBNB was regulated some too

DarkRoast posted...

Bitcoin - Backed by the faith in the stability of a dude who thinks GameStop NFTs are the future

wtf does GameStop have to do with bitcoin

BTC investors think it will be a currency, realize it is used as a way from crime orgs and rich dudes to attempt to avoid oversight, is something you can trade globally without having to convert like usd to jpy

Unsugarized_Foo posted...

Housing isn't a bubble, it's a shortage with only well off players. The last one was a shortage with too many people who couldn't afford their loan

The 2008 popped and flooded the market with houses because the loans failed, the market today has no one falling short

I do wish AirBNB was regulated some. They're affecting the market in places pretty strongly, some places not so much

artificial scarcity is basically a bubble is it not?

ps5 is artificial scarcity

WingsOfGood posted...

artificial scarcity is basically a bubble is it not?

Well its not entirely artificial. Construction is down across the board and even if we're building at 110%, it'll be a good decade to catch up from the past few years.

But even if it was 100% artificial, the bubble would depend on who owns the real estate and if they're willing to unleash a wave of housing- or if the government forces them to.

Unsugarized_Foo posted...

Well its not entirely artificial. Construction is down across the board and even if we're building at 110%, it'll be a good decade to catch up from the past few years.

But even if it was 100% artificial, the bubble would depend on who owns the real estate and if they're willing to unleash a wave of housing- or if the government forces them to.

Doesn't even need to necessarily be a wave of what we typically consider housing released.

Even something like Elon's stupid trailer houses being allowed by laws and providing lower rents would tank the market.

Similar if laws let you build tiny houses all over the place.

WingsOfGood posted...

Doesn't even need to necessarily be a wave of what we typically consider housing released.

Even something like Elon's stupid trailer houses being allowed by laws and providing lower rents would tank the market.

Similar if laws let you build tiny houses all over the place.

True, that'd be another variable to the supply equation

Unsugarized_Foo posted...

True, that'd be another variable to the supply equation

but what ends up happening is laws are made to stop such things because the people making them are invested in the housing market lmao

Fuck em, put it on wheels and by pass the laws

Unsugarized_Foo posted...

Fuck em, put it on wheels and by pass the laws

funny you say that

to avoid buying pricey housing, some people have converted their vans into houses

but... most places have laws against you parking your vehicle on public space and living in it

so they kinda park in like walmart and try not to get caught and such

NES4EVER posted...

Except a countries currency has value based on the backing of said government and the economic output or opportunity for output within a country. Yes the value is based on confidence, but that confidence is in a tangible output.

Same with (most) stocks. The value is based on the confidence in the company based on their ability to earn money and provide a return to shareholders. It can also be based on potential output for a company (lots of tech stocks, tesla). But in most cases there is a tangible item, idea, or opportunity.

I havent quite figured out what cryptos output is, other than speculation it may be adopted in some places as a legitimate currency. Personally i think countries will create their own and restrict use of these kinds of decentralized currencies.

Yeah, currencies and stocks have some relation to real things. Because we as a society have collectively agreed that they should.