Current Events > Do you guys seriously think Trump will lose the election?

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Mackorov
10/31/20 1:12:13 AM
#1:


Have everyone forgotten the 2016 election? Everyone thought Hillary would win too. Maybe some people didn't even vote because they were too confident of it.

Hillary did win, but only by popular vote. I could see the exact same thing happening to Biden. All it takes are a few of the swing states...to swing red.
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Frosted_Midna
10/31/20 1:18:24 AM
#2:


I voted Biden, but I have a feeling Trump will win. Because honestly, I do think there are people who support Trump, but just doesn't announce it.

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Mackorov
10/31/20 1:19:13 AM
#3:


They do. But they're probably boomers and older gen who don't use the internet (or maybe facebook idk) so you don't hear their voices.

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Irony
10/31/20 1:19:15 AM
#4:


Frosted_Midna posted...
Because honestly, I do think there are people who support Trump, but just doesn't announce it.
You clearly don't know Trump supporters

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metralo
10/31/20 1:21:47 AM
#5:


if you can't see the monstrous difference between 2016 and 2020 you are putting your fucking blinders on dude

biden is shattering Obama's numbers and Obama had historic turnout. people forget that even the left fucking hated hillary and she still won the popular vote BEFORE everyone saw how much Trump burned this country down.

Trump only wins depending on how much he can rig the election. which he's unfortunately doing a good job of doing.

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ThePhantomMedic
10/31/20 1:22:19 AM
#6:


If youre a minority, assume all trump supporters hate you because voting for him affects minorities the most. They know this yet vote for him anyway. Theyre scum and need to be told they are
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Solid Snake07
10/31/20 1:26:13 AM
#7:


I do seriously think he will lose.

But I was waaaaay more sure of it 4 years ago(like most everyone else). So no I don't think it's a lock.

Vegas was giving trump about a 30% chance of winning last I looked, which I trust way more than polls. That's a 1/3 chance

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Polycosm
10/31/20 1:34:55 AM
#8:


Yeah, statistically Biden is clearly favored to win. Trump's odds will break into the single digits by election day. Still, I feel uncomfortable about the election in the same way that I feel uncomfortable about Russian roulette. The odds don't make for a perfect analogy, but my point is that the consequences are so dire that even a relatively low probability is worrisome.

Biden can absorb a polling miss on the same scale as 2016 and still win the swing states by a point or two. Unless something crazy happens in the next few days, Trump needs the polls to be flat out wrong (i.e. outside of their margin of error, all correlated in the same direction) in order to win legitimately-- not impossible but not especially likely. (Never mind illegitimate ways of declaring "victory").

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guydude21
10/31/20 1:35:03 AM
#9:


Personally I think that the worst possible outcome is what's most likely to happen.

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Jabodie
10/31/20 1:38:27 AM
#10:


Yes, but I understand the paranoia. The less rational part of my brain agrees with you.

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Kureejii Lea
10/31/20 1:39:13 AM
#11:


I really dont see trump losing the election. We will have to see, no one really knows and the endless polls dont provide anything other than a guess
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pauIie
10/31/20 1:42:05 AM
#12:


yeah. in 2016 we had the benefit of the doubt. we didn't know what a trump presidency would look like, and trump still lost the popular vote. even i was wanting to believe that quote about trump saying he'd run republican because he thought they were idiots.

now we know. not that i think it's a forgone conclusion, because i won't underestimate american voters being fucking morons, and they're fucking with ballots out in the open. but i do believe more people intend to vote for biden than trump, whether or not that gets successfully fucked with.

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ImmatureContent
10/31/20 1:50:01 AM
#13:


Trump is going to lose by a large margin.

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kingdrake2
10/31/20 1:59:47 AM
#14:


ImmatureContent posted...
Trump is going to lose by a large margin.


i hope this happens. biden's plan to save social security for a few years sounds good to me.
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Buu_88
10/31/20 2:15:14 AM
#15:


If Trump wins again America will be 100% confirmed to be fucked in the head

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Zeeak4444
10/31/20 2:17:49 AM
#16:


Solid Snake07 posted...
I do seriously think he will lose.

But I was waaaaay more sure of it 4 years ago(like most everyone else). So no I don't think it's a lock.

Vegas was giving trump about a 30% chance of winning last I looked, which I trust way more than polls. That's a 1/3 chance

thats weird cause I feel the exact opposite. I wasnt sure how 2016 was gonna go but Im a hell of a lot more sure that 2020 wont go to Trump unless this countries really that far gone.

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SevenTenths
10/31/20 2:21:43 AM
#17:


metralo posted...


biden is shattering Obama's numbers and Obama had historic turnout. people forget that even the left fucking hated hillary and she still won the popular vote BEFORE everyone saw how much Trump burned this country down.
The left hate Biden too. Trump just finally fucked up something that impacted people to care. If covid doesn't happen this election is more like 2016 and banking on Hillary being a woman costing her more votes than gaining.

Hell even with covid Biden isn't running on Medicare for all. And bidens response to cops murdering innocent minorities is lets give the cops more money. Surely that will solve the problems. He's a god awful candidate who if he doesn't grow some balls and actually make meaningful reform over the next 2 years will pave the way to the gop retaking seats in mid term elections.


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ninjarobot_22
10/31/20 2:31:28 AM
#18:


If Texas turns blue Trump is doomed.
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Solid Snake07
10/31/20 8:26:43 AM
#19:


Zeeak4444 posted...
thats weird cause I feel the exact opposite. I wasnt sure how 2016 was gonna go but Im a hell of a lot more sure that 2020 wont go to Trump unless this countries really that far gone.


I mean, not that it should necessarily matter to you, but betting odds for clinton winning in 2016 were about 85% according to vegas. Biden is sitting at about a 70% chance of winning right now.

And I wasn't just a blind trump hater back then. I called that he would win the Republican primary when people were calling me crazy

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Ricemills
10/31/20 8:30:28 AM
#20:


Buu_88 posted...
If Trump wins again America will be 100% confirmed to be fucked in the head

the last 4 years is not a confirmation enough for you?

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snoochtonooch
10/31/20 8:32:08 AM
#21:


metralo posted...
if you can't see the monstrous difference between 2016 and 2020 you are putting your fucking blinders on dude

biden is shattering Obama's numbers and Obama had historic turnout. people forget that even the left fucking hated hillary and she still won the popular vote BEFORE everyone saw how much Trump burned this country down.

Trump only wins depending on how much he can rig the election. which he's unfortunately doing a good job of doing.
Smooth brain posting

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dummy420
10/31/20 8:32:39 AM
#22:


I am 95% sure he will lose. The fuckery he intends to pull, and gets away with, is whats hard to predict.

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Antifar
10/31/20 8:32:54 AM
#23:


A lot of people think the lesson from 2016 is that polls are always wrong. This was not the lesson!
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KStateKing17
10/31/20 8:33:45 AM
#24:


It's a bit hard to tell honestly, even after the 2016 election. Trump took Ohio and Arizona by a decent amount, but some of the other toss up states were won by the skin of their teeth. I'm not sure how many votes Jorgensen is going to take but I don't see many third party votes this time around. This looks like it'll really be Trump vs Biden with little influence from third parties and write ins.

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kyujo
10/31/20 8:34:02 AM
#25:


dummy420 posted...
I am 95% sure he will lose. The fuckery he intends to pull, and gets away with, is whats hard to predict.
Yep, it's what comes after we need to watch for

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Iodine
10/31/20 9:17:48 AM
#26:


I really hope Trump loses.

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SamWincester
10/31/20 9:40:15 AM
#27:


ThePhantomMedic posted...
If youre a minority, assume all trump supporters hate you because voting for him affects minorities the most. They know this yet vote for him anyway. Theyre scum and need to be told they are

This is a terrible stance. You're calling me "scum" simply for being black and exercising my right to vote. I haven't done anything wrong that deserves such an insult.
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known2FAIL
10/31/20 9:41:32 AM
#28:


I dont get how people dont understand that Trump won because there was very little voter turnout. That wont be the case this time

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Ruvan22
10/31/20 10:11:04 AM
#29:


SamWincester posted...
This is a terrible stance. You're calling me "scum" simply for being black and exercising my right to vote. I haven't done anything wrong that deserves such an insult.
And yet you support a man who frequently does the same...
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Ruvan22
10/31/20 10:11:30 AM
#30:


Antifar posted...
A lot of people think the lesson from 2016 is that polls are always wrong. This was not the lesson!
This really needs to be a sticky
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snoochtonooch
10/31/20 4:04:48 PM
#31:


The lesson was telling people in swing states you intend to put them out of work is a dumb idea

i dont think they learned this lesson

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COVxy
10/31/20 4:09:27 PM
#32:


snoochtonooch posted...
The lesson was telling people in swing states you intend to put them out of work is a dumb idea

i dont think they learned this lesson

Anybody that thinks this is uninformed tbh. It's been kinda debunked repeatedly ever since the election, and it's mainly a way to whitewash the reality of what happened.

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snoochtonooch
11/01/20 4:04:33 PM
#33:


COVxy posted...
Anybody that thinks this is uninformed tbh. It's been kinda debunked repeatedly ever since the election, and it's mainly a way to whitewash the reality of what happened.
Hillary lost states like West Virginia by telling the coal miners she was going to put them out of work.

you are clearly clueless why you lost and will be again next week because you refuse to learn

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Antifar
11/01/20 4:06:20 PM
#34:


snoochtonooch posted...
Hillary lost states like West Virginia by telling the coal miners she was going to put them out of work.

I mean, every Democrat since gore has lost WV. Boiling it down to a single reason or tactic seems silly.
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__aCEr__
11/01/20 4:12:27 PM
#35:


Who the hell considers West Virginia a swing state lol. That state is losing electoral votes because the population is dwindling.

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UnholyMudcrab
11/01/20 4:12:29 PM
#36:


snoochtonooch posted...
Hillary lost states like West Virginia by telling the coal miners she was going to put them out of work.

you are clearly clueless why you lost and will be again next week because you refuse to learn
Clinton was never going to win WV under any circumstances.

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COVxy
11/01/20 4:59:25 PM
#37:


snoochtonooch posted...
you are clearly clueless why you lost and will be again next week because you refuse to learn

"This is why Trump won," the Trumpist croaks to the nurse wearing a cuck mask, as he takes his last breath.

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snoochtonooch
11/01/20 6:19:43 PM
#38:


It wasnt just West Virginia. That was an example. It was Minnesota. Maine. Iowa. Michigan. Ohio. Pennsylvania.

working class middle America who rely on these jobs to pay their bills.

I didnt even vote for Trump, and I am not voting for him again.

but this is the lesson. You will continue to lose because you dont realize people vote with their wallet

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Antifar
11/01/20 6:21:19 PM
#39:


I think you overestimate how many people work in coal. Additionally, Hillary won two of those states you listed.
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IronTusk
11/01/20 6:27:00 PM
#40:


Every poll average (including both weighted averages for all polls and those only averaging high-quality polls) seem to indicate Trump has about a 10% chance to take it. The state level polling now is much improved compared to 2016 and even those polls were accurate nationally. 2018 polls were quite accurate (apart from slighlty underestimating Dems in the Sun Belt and over-estimating them in Florida).

1 in 10 is still a fair chance for something so world-changing so I'm still cautious.
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lordofmud
11/01/20 6:27:19 PM
#41:


Has anyone mentioned the hidden Trumpers?

The white IT guy in Michigan who commiserates around the water cooler about the plight of inner city blacks but really loves it when those police beat down videos are on and hates that his tax dollars go to pay for Mexicans to go to public school.

Guess what, there are millions more like him. They will tell you to your face that Republicans are terrible and Trump is the worst of the lot. In that voting booth though no one will ever know. Except dear leader Trump when he gets his next 4 years.

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nfearurspecimn
11/01/20 6:27:41 PM
#42:


Probably, but I'm not 100% sure.

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Antifar
11/01/20 6:27:46 PM
#43:


lordofmud posted...
Guess what, there are millions more like him.

[Citation needed]
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snoochtonooch
11/01/20 6:49:17 PM
#44:


Antifar posted...
I think you overestimate how many people work in coal. Additionally, Hillary won two of those states you listed.
Its not limited to coal. Its oil. Its all things renewable energy

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SandTarpit
11/01/20 6:50:33 PM
#45:


ImmatureContent posted...
Trump is going to lose by a large margin.
this.

blowout

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Broseph_Stalin
11/01/20 6:51:55 PM
#46:


tag :)
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hockeybub89
11/01/20 6:54:33 PM
#47:


I don't believe the underdog winning last time means numbers will never matter again, so yes.

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Proto_Spark
11/01/20 6:55:32 PM
#48:


Its technically possible for Trump to win still, but its much less likely for him to win now than it was in 2016, and add on to that that the entire Trump campaign has been such a dumpster fire this year, while in 2016 it was running really well (he was still terrible, but he was doing things really well in 2016 and isn't doing now).

For Trump to win, he needs to win basically every single state he's expected to win in addition to several expected to go for Joe Biden. That's possible, sure, but not likely, especially since Biden doesn't have a scandal like Benghazi or and email issue like Hilary Clinton did.

Trump got everyone he could out in 2016, and a lot of those people either regret their vote, or see Biden as the better candidate after Trump spent the last 4 years ****ing the bed. I don't think Trump has a real chance of winning, short of him actually cheating (which is also entirely possible, we've had plenty of stories of Trump basically begging his staff to rig the election)
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