Current Events > Really good article from a leftist about US voting trends over the next decade

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/07/david-shor-cancel-culture-2020-election-theory-polls.html

tl;dr:

it's really really bad

due to white working class voters trending against the democratic party, the democrats' position in the electoral college will continue to worsen for at least the next two election cycles (2024 and 2028). the electoral college bias is big enough that realistically, a democrat has to win the popular vote by 4 points in order to have a chance of winning the election. that will only become harder as time goes on.

problems in the senate are even worse because of institutional bias and the death of ticket splitting. if there's a neutral political environment in 2024, democrats will be down to just 43 seats.

the good news is that younger generations are now very liberal. but the downside is that younger people don't vote. over time, if dems can continue to convince new generations of young ppl to drift left, these investments will become more important. but right now, and for the next 10 years, it's not a good tradeoff.

there are solutions. statehood for Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. pass the national popular vote electoral compact. outside of that, we're in for a rough time

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Mecha Sonic posted...

the good news is that younger generations are now very liberal. but the downside is that younger people don't vote. over time, if dems can continue to convince new generations of young ppl to drift left, these investments will become more important. but right now, and for the next 10 years, it's not a good tradeoff.

It's easy to convince young people to vote democratic when they are broke and in school and need free handouts. You tend to lose them once they enter the real world and see what their hard earned money goes towards with taxes.

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pepper2012 posted...

It's easy to convince young people to vote democratic when they are broke and in school and need free handouts. You tend to lose them once they enter the real world and see what their hard earned money goes towards with taxes.

i probably earn way more money than you do. please, raise my taxes.

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Mecha Sonic posted...

i probably earn way more money than you do. please, raise my taxes.

Hey if you wanna give more to the people who would rather stick a hand out than lift a hammer go for it.

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pepper2012 posted...

Hey if you wanna give more to the people who would rather stick a hand out than lift a hammer go for it.

bro i don't think most people who are out of work right now could get paid to "lift a hammer" if they tried

get outta here and stop trollan

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lolwut

Trump literally won the election in 2016 because three states that hadn't voted Republican since the 80s voted Republican. Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, formerly red states, have become blue states. Florida is always a wild card now. Texas, Arizona, and even Georgia, which have been red states for awhile, are trending to be swing states.


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