Board 8 > ~*Ultimaterializer's Post-Contest Analysis!*~

(+) Yeah! (+)

PostContestUlti posted...

Some indie games looked okay this contest. Most did not. Ghost Trick was one of the many, many games that served as mere filler for the early rounds.

Ahhh yes, that small, plucky, indie developer Capcom.

---

Division 4 Round 1: (7)Dragon Age: Inquisition vs (10)Ori and the Blind Forest

(7)Dragon Age: Inquisition - 12065 [48.09%]
(10)Ori and the Blind Forest - 13024 [51.91%]
Total Votes - 25089
Prediction Percentage - 38.19%

Some indie games looked okay this contest. Most did not. Ori and the Blind Forest pulled off an upset so unexpected that I went and bought it immediately upon seeing this match result. True story. This match was one of those types where it wasn't remotely as close as the final score would indicate, either. Dragon Age didn't even get the bracket votes, and Ori just sat there and boat raced this match en route to what I like to call a 52-48 blowout. This thing was never close and was never going to be, regardless of any periodic cuts or stalls Dragon Age made.

I was frankly stunned into silence by this result, and didn't think Dragon Age would have a prayer of losing this. How many matches happened in this contest where a brand name video game demolished some indie darling? Hell, how many of the indie games this contest got to lose close? Two or three maybe?

But once I did some digging to research points for this writeup, the reasons became clear. First off, people ''hate'' Dragon Age: Inquisition. Remember, this wasn't Dragon Age: Origins. Inquisition is the third game in the series, and the fanbase openly detests this game. It's apparently a very badly done game, too, with most Bioware honks rating it on the level of Mass Effect Andromeda. I wish I had looked that up pre-contest, because if this match was Andromeda vs Ori, I would have picked Ori without a second thought.

More importantly than that is Ori having two huge breaks. One is that it got a Switch port in September 2019, four years after its initial release date on Steam. That will always help. Two and most importantly, this match happened on April 3rd, 2020. Ori and the Will of the Wisps launched on March 11th, 2020. Ori may have won this match with its own natural strength, we'll never know for sure, but these mid-contest game releases almost always help big time.

It all added up to an incredible upset, with only two oracles and 18% of gurus picking Ori to win. This choke job by Inquisition had some people calling it the turd of the contest, but I don't agree with that. This was a one point upset, which in my world cannot ever be called a turd of the entire contest. Turd of the round maybe, but not an entire contest. The match didn't mean enough.

Turd of the contest honors goes to Hideo Kojima. Oh wait, sorry, Kojima is just a hack who thinks toilet humor is funny and that bodily functions as weapons in a video game is a good idea and HYPER REALISM OMG. Can you imagine that trash in real life? It happens, you know. Antifa is known for putting bodily fluids in balloons, and there are idiots who think women shouldn't be allowed to arm themselves in self defense because if they're about to be assaulted they can just go to the bathroom on themselves or vomit. Yes, there are actually people dumb enough to think this. I'll bet Hideo Kojima helped come up with those ideas. Hey genius, it's called the second amendment and legal self defense. Use it.

The ''actual'' turd of this contest is Fire Emblem. Speaking of.

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Ahhh yes, that small, plucky, indie developer Capcom.

lol whoops!

The game did so bad it might as well have been an indie title. I will definitely fix tho.

Division 4 Round 1: (2)Fire Emblem: Three Houses vs (15)South Park: The Stick of Truth

(2)Three Houses - 16721 [66.66%]
(15)South Park - 8364 [33.34%]
Total Votes - 25085
Prediction Percentage - 80.49%

Right from the jump, it was clear that Three Houses was in a ''lot'' of trouble in this contest. Stick of Truth is very comparable to Splatoon 2, and the comparison point between Xenoblade and Fire Emblem's performances was no contest. Xenoblade looked far, far better. Some people tried to claim Stick of Truth had respectable strength for various reasons, such as big name exposure and memes, but those same arguments apply to Splatoon 2. Fact is, Fire Emblem as a whole just laid a huge egg in this contest. In a vacuum this match was a simple doubling for the expected winner. When compared to future opponents...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9Uw97lOOlk

We'll get into this more in round 3, but here is the short version since I have to save ''some'' juice for later. On top of Fire Emblem just being the Tales series with slightly more strength -- overhyped every contest without ever winning anything of note -- Three Houses was always going to get doomed by anti-voting by weird Smash Bros fans.

I talk a lot of junk about a lot of fanbases in these writeups, but let's make one thing perfectly clear. Tourneycrab Smash players are the absolute worst fanbase on this entire planet. I would rather spend time with literally ''anyone'' else. Unfortunately, there are a ton of these people and they are very, very pissed off at Fire Emblem: Three Houses. Adding anti-votes to a series that already has a tendency to choke is a recipe for napalm death.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

The ''actual'' turd of this contest is Fire Emblem. Speaking of.

:(
---

Bro I feel your pain. I put almost 600 hours into Three Houses.

---

I guess all the Hoes Mad shitposting did not exactly help FE3H with avoiding Smash ire
---

PostContestUlti posted...

But almost no one was talking about Xenoblade Chronicles. That changed in a hurry once this match happened, especially as Three Houses was stinking it up against South Park, but pre-contest? Not a word.

Part of that is Yoblazer and I keeping our mouths shut. We both picked Xenoblade after a good look at the data pre-contest, but didn't say a word to anyone outside of yo I think giving one small Show hint. This is a competition, after all. I'll get into what I saw when we get to the divisional finals, because it was as good a pick as I've ever made.

I think I was mostly shocked that Three Houses ended up becoming such a favorite, when my gut instinct was that the match was a total coin flip, and I chose Xenoblade because I figured "too much Smash representation" might be a factor, But I didn't feel good about that choice, especially when the Guru stats came out and Three Houses was such a favorite.

Of course, then this day happens with Xenoblade blowing out Splatoon 2 (which is the game I've spent the most hours in the bracket) and Three Houses putting on a lethargic performance against Stick of Truth, and I slowly realize that I just stumbled onto an all-time level upset.

---

Division 5 Round 1: (1)The Witcher 3:Wild Hunt vs (16)Assassin's Creed Odyssey

(1)Witcher 3 - 20059 [84.07%]
(16)Assassin's Creed Odyssey - 3801 [15.93%]
Total Votes - 23860
Prediction Percentage - 92.23%

Well ''this'' was certainly an eye-opener. In these contests, it's all fun and cute to debate early round matches. They make things fun and I certainly wouldn't take that away from anyone.

What actually matters are getting the late rounds right. We all knew Breath of the Wild was winning this contest, but there was a huge issue to solve in the bottom half of the bracket. Witcher 3, Skyrim, Pokemon HGSS, Mario Galaxy 2, Persona 5, Dark Souls, and even The Last of Us all had fair cases for making the final, though the prevailing opinion was that the second semifinal would be between Witcher 3 and Skyrim, with Skyrim as the favorite.

Skyrim was the favorite because we have metadata on both games from 2015, and not only did Skyrim look like a shit-kicking badass that year, Witcher 3 lost to Metal Gear Solid 2. I know what eventually happened in this contest, but that is a real result. It actually happened. It led to Skyrim having a 60-40 advantage in those stats, and for Witcher to flip that around it needed all of the following to go right:

-Netflix show boost
-Switch port boost
-"Respect" boost
-Skyrim deboost because of people hating Bethesda
-Skyrim having an overrated value due to being locked behind Undertale's value

For those reasons, I picked Skyrim to beat Witcher 3 in the semis and make the final. I regretted that decision about 10 seconds into this match, because Witcher 3 was ''clearly'' a different animal in this contest as compared to 2015. It had over 85% early on and held steady for the entire match. Binding of Isaac Rebirth got 26% on Witcher 3 five years ago, just FYI.

People make fun of the stats topic for making wild projections 5-10 minutes into a match, but we're usually ''right'' with those projections. Based on this match, the entire half of this bracket was done for. Holding Assassin's Creed Odyssey, which is arguably the most popular and well respected game in that series, to below 16% is just an absurd level of strength. The ''one'' hope the bottom half of this bracket had was the possibility of this being an SFF match.

To that, I say ''it doesn't matter'' if this was an SFF match. The bottom half of the bracket was on notice either way.

https://endmyopia.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/rock-eyebrow.jpg

---

Division 5 Round 1: (8)Mass Effect 3 vs (9)Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty

(8)Mass Effect 3 - 14466 [60.63%]
(9)Starcraft 2 - 9392 [39.37%]
Total Votes - 23858
Prediction Percentage - 64.54%

This match was not hard to predict. We had already seen the varsity version of it five years ago: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6146-best-game-ever-day-24-round-2-starcraft-vs-mass-effect-2

You're about to get your mind blown for a second straight Blizzard writeup -- I legitimately and truly enjoyed Starcraft 2. On my mother's ashes. I promise.

My issue with it wasn't the game itself, but Blizzard's lying about it. Remember when they told us this would be three separate games, but only the first one would be full-priced and that the other two episodes would be relatable to an expansion pack? Yeah how'd that work out for you folks? There is a reason Wings of Liberty is what got in and not Heart of the Swarm or Legacy of the Void. I'm glad I have family that works for Blizzard that got me the games for free with the family discount, because I was not going to pay a penny to play any of them. But because of that, I got to enjoy a pretty good set of games. There were some flaws, namely too many maps being gimmicks instead of RTS campaigns, but I enjoyed most of it nonetheless. Heart of the Swarm was the weak spot, but the Zerg campaigns kind of sucked in the original too.

The highlight for me was actually Wings of Liberty. My best friend's name is Jim, and to this day I'm always "daaaaaamn, Jimmy" when he's around. Tosh is great. Raynor is good. The little arcade game on the Hyperion was ''really'' fun.

And with all that said, Starcraft 2 didn't deserve to be within a mile of winning this match. Mass Effect 3 is the better game with the better plot, the better gameplay, and even the better multiplayer. Yeah I said it.

http://n7hq.masseffect.com/home/overview/?name=ultimaterializer&platform=ps3

I am still, to this day, the #1 Geth Trooper Soldier in the world. Every November 7th, I make sure to carry on the tradition by carrying a bunch of slugs through Platinums. This match goes a little deeper than just liking one game more than the other, though. I ''love'' Undertale, but Mass Effect 3 deserved better than to be its first casualty of the rally. It also gets unfairly dumped on for its ending and its sequel, when neither one is Mass Effect 3's fault. 99.9% of this game is A+, but because people are idiots they pretend the game is bad because of an ending. Screw EA for caving to these crybabies, too. Never give entitled brats what they want.

I think I spent more time on Mass Effect 3 than the rest of the series combined, so seeing it get its redemption story was nice to see. I was shocked it was such a blowout, too. I figured the score would be similar to Mass Effect 2 v Starcraft, but I guess Starcraft 2 got run over by the Blizzard hate train.

---

Division 5 Round 1: (5)Stardew Valley vs (12)Destiny

(5)Stardew Valley - 16979 [71.17%]
(12)Destiny - 6879 [28.83%]
Total Votes - 23858
Prediction Percentage - 68.26%

Some indie games looked okay in this contest. Most did not. Stardew Valley, however, arguably looked better than any other indie game in all of round one. If I'm not mistaken, it scored the biggest blowout of all the round one indie performances, which is rather impressive given all the fodder in this field. I get that its opponent was Destiny, which is quite possibly the most hated game in the history of this web site, but still. An indie title going 71-29 over a AAA main line game is a crazy result, no matter what the big name game is. This was reminiscent of Florida Gulf Coast destroying Georgetown. The game was as unknown as could be when it first came out, but now look at it.

Personally I think Stardew Valley is garbage and I couldn't wait for Mario Galaxy 2 to rip it in half, but I can still respect the hustle. I also think Destiny is even ''more'' garbage, so it's not like the wrong game won.

For anyone who cares, I don't like these games like Stardew Valley, Animal Crossing, Harvest Moon, The Sims, Sim City, Minecraft, et al where there is no goal besides farm, craft, build, repeat. Farm, craft, build, repeat. Farm, craft, build, repeat. These are the kinds of games non-gamers play, and they barely count as video games.

Still better than Destiny, though!

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Inquisition is the third game in the series, and the fanbase openly detests this game. It's apparently a very badly done game, too, with most Bioware honks rating it on the level of Mass Effect Andromeda.

Yeah, back when the game came out I remember seeing quite a few funny YouTube videos dunking on it and highlighting hilariously bad scenes and dialogue, often involving this ugly elf called Sera. Most of those videos are gone now, sadly, but Inquisition really did get the Mass Effect: Andromeda treatment back in the day, just on a smaller scale (for all the shit Inquisition got, I think everyone acknowledge that Andromeda is far worse).

---

Division 5 Round 1: (4)Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs (13)Return of the Obra Dinn

(4)Mario Galaxy 2 - 20816 [87.25%]
(13)Obra Dinn - 3043 [12.75%]
Total Votes - 23859
Prediction Percentage - 95.45%

Can someone explain to me how in the name of all that is good Mario Galaxy 2 only got a 4 seed? The same applies to Obra Dinn, which clearly should have been a 16. This entire match was a mis-seeded bork.

The biggest blowout of an entire contest usually goes to a Nintendo entrant, and this contest was no exception. It was so weird seeing it from a 4 seed, though. There was a small portion of this match where it looked like Mario might flirt with 90%, of all numbers, but he eventually settled at "only" scoring 87. This wasn't a blowout on the same level as what Tanner, AiAi, Cave Story, or Ms. Pac-Man have had to deal with, but it was a legendary blowout nonetheless. So much so that I can update this list!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/968-west-division-round-1-mega-man-vs-ms-pac-man
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/986-west-division-round-2-mega-man-vs-serious-sam
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1305-north-division-round-1-link-vs-aiai
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1606-division-8-round-1-the-legend-of-zelda-vs-adventure
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1733-20xx-division-round-1-solid-snake-vs-tanner
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2433-mushroom-division-round-1-super-mario-bros-vs-madden-nfl
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4085-east-division-round-1-smash-bros-melee-vs-guitar-hero-ii
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4510-north-division-round-1-mario-vs-bowser-jim-vs-queen-slug-for
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4526-south-division-round-1-link-vs-ganondorf-arthas-vs-illidan
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6083-best-game-ever-day-9-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs-hearthstone
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6091-best-game-ever-day-11-zelda-a-link-to-the-past-vs-cave-story
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6690-best-year-in-gaming-round-1-day-1-1995-vs-1986
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7296-division-8-round-1-amaterasu-vs-draven
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7950-division-5-round-1-super-mario-galaxy-2-vs-return-of-the

That's one of my favorite lists to keep updating in these PCAs. Watching an insane blowout is almost as fun as watching BAH GAWD IT'S A SLOBBERKNOCKER.

It still meant nothing for the looming Witcher 3 vs Galaxy 2 match, either. Some folks picked Galaxy 2 in "Nintendo always wins" crusade, which I can understand, but what Mario did to Obra Dinn here just isn't comparable to Witcher 3 aethering Assassin's Creed Odyssey. People actually know what Assassin's Creed Odyssey is.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Can someone explain to me how in the name of all that is good Mario Galaxy 2 only got a 4 seed?

Because Odyssey clearly pulled rank on the Mario series when it came to nominations. There's only so much of the Nintendo pie to go around in nominations, and frankly, I'm surprised it didn't end up even more underseeded, because the Galaxy games really haven't blown the doors off previous contests (hello there, Mass Effect 1).

---

Division 5 Round 1: (3)Fallout: New Vegas vs (14)The Stanley Parable

(3)Fallout: New Vegas - 18217 [79.4%]
(14)The Stanley Parable - 4726 [20.6%]
Total Votes - 22943
Prediction Percentage -91.38%

Some indie games looked okay this contest. Most did not. The Stanley Parable was one of the many, many, many games in this contest that functioned as early round fodder for the heavy hitters, because the two per series cap meant for some incredibly obscure entrants. I will say though that I looked into every game at least a little bit to prep for these writeups, and The Stanley Parable legitimately looks interesting. The preview makes it look like Portal: The Office Version, and it even looks like it was done in whatever engine Half-Life 2 was made on. I might check it out at some point.

It was also up against Fallout: New Vegas, meaning it had zero chance whatsoever and functioned as a standard happy-to-be-here low seed. If we pretend Octopath Traveler and Mario Kart 8 never happened, and that match against Undertale was a very special case, did you know the lowest seed to win a match in this contest was 10? It's true. Look it up. We only had two major seeding upsets this year.

There was some minor debate surrounding New Vegas vs Dark Souls 3 in round 2, but that was put to bed fairly quickly when the round 1 results came in. New Vegas was the clear favorite, as it should have been. Dark Souls 3 happened long after that series jumped the shark (it came after Bloodborne, which is just the better game in every single possible way, so Dark Souls 3 felt like a step backwards), while New Vegas is often described by Fallout fans as being the ''real'' Fallout 4. Those people absolutely loathe Bethesda, Fallout 4, and obviously Fallout 76 -- but New Vegas, they're all in on. It showed with how well it did in this contest.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

It was also up against Fallout: New Vegas, meaning it had zero chance whatsoever and functioned as a standard happy-to-be-here low seed. If we pretend Octopath Traveler never happened, and that match against Undertale was a very special case, did you know the lowest seed to win a match in this contest was 10? It's true. Look it up.

Mario Kart 8 says hi with a Blue Shell.

Though the 7/10 first round upset was the most common seeding upset of the first round, with 3 of them coming to fruition.

---

One thing I'll give Stardew Valley (why I enjoyed it more than most) is that there is essentially a main story end goal. To make your dead grandpa proud of you within 2 in game years. It does require you to basically do a half-completion run but at least it's better than other farm games without any goal whatsoever.

---

Division 5 Round 1: (6)Dark Souls III vs (11)Dishonored

(6)Dark Souls 3 - 16041 [69.93%]
(11)Dishonored - 6897 [30.07%]
Total Votes - 22938
Prediction Percentage - 85.88%

This was one of the many early round blowouts we had in this contest, and it was never going to be anything other than an easy win for Dark Souls 3. One thing of note here is that while Dishonored doesn't feel like a Board 8 type of game, the forum actually loves it. I don't know why or how, but it does. It's a welcome change of pace!

Speaking of changes of pace, From Software really botched it (the pace, I mean) with Dark Souls 3. The game is not bad by any stretch, but you can't go backwards after Bloodborne and go back to playing as a piddling character in molasses whose every action takes 45 seconds. I want to dance around like Demyx's water, not actually feel like I'm fighting underwater. The shame of it is the design of 3 has some of the coolest areas and bosses in the entire series, but by this point it's on the ever so slight downswing. From Software recognizes this, too, so it was clear by the lore than Dark Souls 3 is the last one.

The formula, at least for this character speed, is played out. Thankfully, From Software announced The Elden Ring, which is as clear and obvious a paradigm shift as we'll get. From Software, arguably the best game designers we've ever had (outside of their garbage camera systems, which somehow has not improved in ''six games''), is making an open world game with all of these templates -- Skyrim, Breath of the Wild, Witcher 3, among several other A+ titles -- to draw from. To say I'm hyped is an understatement. If we still have these contests in 2030, The Elden Ring has the potential to be top 5 in those x-stats. Maybe even number one.

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Mario Kart 8 says hi with a Blue Shell.

Though the 7/10 first round upset was the most common seeding upset of the first round, with 3 of them coming to fruition.

Oof.

I blame my hatred of Mario Kart for not noticing that one.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Some indie games looked okay this contest. Most did not. The Stanley Parable was one of the many, many, many games in this contest that functioned as early round fodder for the heavy hitters, because the two per series cap meant for some incredibly obscure entrants. I will say though that I looked into every game at least a little bit to prep for these writeups, and The Stanley Parable legitimately looks interesting. The preview makes it look like Portal: The Office Version, and it even looks like it was done in whatever engine Half-Life 2 was made on. I might check it out at some point.

It's very good! There's also a demo on Steam that has its own unique content that is not part of the full game, which you should try out before playing the game itself.

---

Arti posted...

It's very good! There's also a demo on Steam that has its own unique content that is not part of the full game, which you should try out before playing the game itself.

I think I will check it out then. You've never steered me wrong.

---

Division 5 Round 1: (7)The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth vs (10)Nioh

(7)The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth - 9972 [43.47%]
(10)Nioh - 12968 [56.53%]
Total Votes - 22940
Prediction Percentage - 44.12%

The oracle, guru, board, and casuals all got this one hilariously wrong, but Isaac seemed like the obvious pick so who can blame any of us? Nioh, despite having very good sales, feels like it got lost in the shuffle of all the Souls clones that happened in the latter half of the decade. There's also the matter of the Souls games not exactly lighting the world on fire in these contests before this year. Demon's Souls choked in 2010 and got its ass whipped in 2015. Dark Souls won two matches, then failed to break 30% the second it faced legitimate competition.

Not only that, but Isaac was guaranteed to have a ''huge'' picture advantage, and Nioh itself is the bastard stepchild of a bastard stepchild. No-brainer pick, right?

''That'', ladies and gentlemen, ''is why they '''play the games'''!''

Isaac had a small lead early thanks to bracket votes, and was only losing by 9 at the freeze, but then after a small stall Nioh utterly destroyed The Binding of Isaac for 23 and a half hours. It was a blowout win so unexpected that it had people looking for answers, but thankfully that's part of why I do what I do!

People clearly did not respect Nioh's sales numbers when making their brackets, and many people also didn't expect the Souls series to have such insane respect in this contest due to the contest's title. I've mentioned this a few times, but our voters are very astute. "Game of the Decade" means something to them. When you put an irrelevant video game up against a well respected Souls clone, it's a wonder any of us picked against the Souls clone.

But there is another point that a lot of us keep forgetting to factor in when making brackets, but I suspect that won't be an issue moving forward with how I keep bringing it up in these writeups. This match happened on April 5th. Nioh 2 came out on March 13th. These mid-contest game releases are a ''huge'' deal, because they almost always cause these massively inflated performances in polling. Nioh likely would have won this match either way, but without a mid-contest sequel this likely would have been a 53-47 type of match. ''With'' a mid-contest sequel, you get what we have here. To date as of this writing, Nioh 2 has over a million in sales.

The right game won, too. If you read my review you'll see a 4/10 score and me ratting off a bunch of flaws, but I can still be in love with an average video game. For all that Nioh does wrong, and it botches a ''lot'' of things, the things it does well are truly special. One such thing is the soundtrack. Check this specific track out, which is nothing short of mesmerizing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-s0v0AWkbw

I'm not one of those people that likes to look at a thesaurus and invent new phrases when discussing music, like those idiots at Pitchfork are known for, but one comment on that video says this theme is hauntingly feminine and beautiful. Couldn't agree more. It's a huge reason I'm happy Nioh won, despite not picking it. It deserved this.

---

Division 5 Round 1: (2)God of War vs (15)The Talos Principle

(2)God of War - 19480 [84.92%]
(15)The Talos Principle - 3460 [15.08%]
Total Votes - 22940
Prediction Percentage - 96.1%

Some indie games looked alright this contest. Most did not. The Tales Principle was another in the long line of low seeded indie darlings that existed simply to get their asses whipped by the heavy hitters. Allen almost did ''too'' good of a job with the seeding this year, but it is what it is. Contests with 128 entrants have a lot of early round blah to get through.

New rule. Two video games can't have the same exact name. No more "Doom" meaning two things. No more "Resident Evil 2" meaning two things. No more "God of War" meaning two things. None of it. It's a stupid, lazy, cheap marketing ploy to get sales. That said, God of War is an all-time ''amazing'' video game and one of the best paradigm shifts in gaming history. It really is. I know a lot of you don't like hack-n-slash, and that's fine! You do you. God of War 2018 is not hack-n-slash. It's an open world adventure of sorts. It was out for blood this contest, too. Sort of. This match had a lot to do with Talos Principle being a complete unknown, because Kratos isn't the type of dude to score 85% blowouts in these things and we all knew he was no threat to actually win the division. Witcher 3 or Mario Galaxy 2 would make sure of that.

It's a shame this site doesn't really care about God of War, because these games deserve to do a lot better than they ultimately do. Kratos has a phenomenal character arc ongoing, too. I've played every game in this series, and God of War 2018 is the best one by quite a lot. If you only ever play one God of War game, this is the one to play. Scout's honor.

---

Okay I need a break. My wrists actually hurt.

---

God of War 2018 by far looks better than original series with the least spammy gameplay and most interesting story

I tried OG God of War 1 and didnt like it much

---

The saddest thing about Three Houses is that I still think it wins its division if this contest is held pre-Byleth Smash announcement. It had every intangible in its favor - coming off of bad to 'mixed' entries in the series and redeeming them, being widely talked about on its release, having multiple voice actors willing to rally for the game on Twitter to a non-insignificant degree, who have done so for things generating even less attention than a modern GameFAQs contest.

And then Byleth is released to... essentially advertise DLC for the game, and suddenly Fire Emblem as a whole is right back to where it was when Fates was released: seen as a cheap cash grab by Nintendo. All hype and buzz gone, it's just too much to deal with that compared to wading through complaints of no Dante, Crash, or Waddle Dee with Cute Hat. The sad thing is, I think I might bet on Fire Emblem next contest if the next game's well-received and the main character isn't in Smash. I don't feel so much burned by Three Houses' bomb as much as I feel melancholic that events that aren't the game's or even the series' fault can damage it so much.

---

I think Byleth in Smash Ultimate is fun

Fuck the haters theres already a bazillion great characters in Smash

---

Kamekguy posted...

The saddest thing about Three Houses is that I still think it wins its division if this contest is held pre-Byleth Smash announcement. It had every intangible in its favor - coming off of bad to 'mixed' entries in the series and redeeming them, being widely talked about on its release, having multiple voice actors willing to rally for the game on Twitter to a non-insignificant degree, who have done so for things generating even less attention than a modern GameFAQs contest.

And then Byleth is released to... essentially advertise DLC for the game, and suddenly Fire Emblem as a whole is right back to where it was when Fates was released: seen as a cheap cash grab by Nintendo. All hype and buzz gone, it's just too much to deal with that compared to wading through complaints of no Dante, Crash, or Waddle Dee with Cute Hat. The sad thing is, I think I might bet on Fire Emblem next contest if the next game's well-received and the main character isn't in Smash. I don't feel so much burned by Three Houses' bomb as much as I feel melancholic that events that aren't the game's or even the series' fault can damage it so much.

I think asking for no Byleth in Smash to reverse a 60/40 is a bit much of a stretch. I can see it being a factor as to why Xenoblade burned it so badly, but I think the real reasoning is that Fire Emblem is just a little bit too niche to break through as a mainstream hit. It's a strategy RPG, and the only game in that genre to ever really make noise around here is Final Fantasy Tactics, and it took that brand name to do it. Xenoblade is an action RPG, and those have much more mainstream appeal and that's why I would bet its got a better play rate on the site than Three Houses, despite not being on the Switch just yet.

---

Okay admittedly I forgot it was THAT bad.

Still sad, but... fair enough.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Spoilers -- KP is a really, really smart guy. In the raw stats, Cuphead did the best.

That was actually Stardew Valley by far, which happened to be the other game KP thought had a good chance of being the strongest indie. Cuphead is highest in KP's preliminary adjusted x-stats, though.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Because Odyssey clearly pulled rank on the Mario series when it came to nominations. There's only so much of the Nintendo pie to go around in nominations, and frankly, I'm surprised it didn't end up even more underseeded, because the Galaxy games really haven't blown the doors off previous contests (hello there, Mass Effect 1).

Galaxy 2 didn't have to deal with nomination competition from 64, Sunshine, or especially the original Galaxy this time, and barely a quarter of 2015's field was even eligible for this contest, yet it only went up from a 6-seed to a 4-seed. I really don't think Odyssey alone can explain that; evidently, Galaxy 2 benefited from 2015's use of Metascores to determine seeding, which I don't think Allen used this time around.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Xenoblade is an action RPG, and those have much more mainstream appeal and that's why I would bet its got a better play rate on the site than Three Houses, despite not being on the Switch just yet.

I wouldn't. Mother 3, a fellow inaccessible Nintendo JRPG that's gradually built up a fanbase, only has a ~15% playrate. Xenoblade is obviously stronger than Mother 3, in part because it obviously has a higher playrate than Mother 3, but it's never had Three Houses' buzz or accessibility. Of course, that will probably change once the Definitive Edition releases.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Oh, it's the guy responsible for making the ''bad'' Devil May Cry games. No thanks. Moving on.

wut

Itsuno made 3/4/5. He was the listed director for DMC2 but was only brought on the project with 4-6 months remaining and with the original director and team only having finished environmental and enemy art + the Stinger animation, which was the worst Stinger in the series. He managed to put something together in that short time frame and then begged Capcom to let him make DMC3 and specifically tried to make it as good as possible so he wouldn't be known as the guy that made DMC2. We also still don't know who the original director was.

You should really give Dragon's Dogma a shot, I think you might like it.

---

I mean, Three Houses performed undeniably weaker in the contest than in the GotY polls, and Smash antivotes neatly explain this
---

Hbthebattle posted...

I mean, Three Houses performed undeniably weaker in the contest than in the GotY polls, and Smash antivotes neatly explain this

The game was also a lot more relevant then. Personally, I haven't thought of Three Houses once since I beat it

---

I dont like fire emblem.

there I said it

_stingers_ posted...

The game was also a lot more relevant then. Personally, I haven't thought of Three Houses once since I beat it

3H released in July, dude. Being "irrelevant" wasn't its issue.
---

I see what you're saying, but a 4 month difference isn't insignificant. Between that poll and this contest happening, there was Animal Crossing, P5R, and FF7 stealing some thunder from the Nintendo/RPG crowd when there wasn't as many big releases beforehand.

---

There is still a crowd that talks about Three Houses a lot

They just don't go on GameFAQs

---

NowItsAngeTime posted...

There is still a crowd that talks about Three Houses a lot

They just don't go on GameFAQs

It's one of the more popular switch boards, with only the Smash, ACNL, and the just-announced Origami King beating it in activity.
---

Fire Emblem was always a bit niche to me and this is coming from a person that's been a fan of the series. Sure the series has boosted since Awakening, but any series would have boosted if their original sales were a few hundred thousand copies.

I went with Xenoblade > 3 Houses because I felt the former would pull rank, not to mention the game/series is much more respected and liked relative to 2015.

Too bad I went with P4G > Xenoblade for the division final, would have gotten the division perfect otherwise.

---

_SecretSquirrel posted...

I think asking for no Byleth in Smash to reverse a 60/40 is a bit much of a stretch. I can see it being a factor as to why Xenoblade burned it so badly, but I think the real reasoning is that Fire Emblem is just a little bit too niche to break through as a mainstream hit. It's a strategy RPG, and the only game in that genre to ever really make noise around here is Final Fantasy Tactics, and it took that brand name to do it. Xenoblade is an action RPG, and those have much more mainstream appeal and that's why I would bet its got a better play rate on the site than Three Houses, despite not being on the Switch just yet.

I basically agree with all of this in the context of GameFAQs, but it's still really weird to read about how Fire Emblem is more niche than Xenoblade. As a big FE fan I'm loving how it's obviously landed in a pretty big way in various social media circles. I kinda hoped it would break through on GameFAQs as well, but so it goes.

I also agree that Smash ire is definitely a factor but is not enough to hand Xenoblade victory alone.

Hbthebattle posted...

I guess all the Hoes Mad s***posting did not exactly help FE3H with avoiding Smash ire

Probably not, but it was still worth it. I can deal with my favourite series being a bit more hated by a section of the internet which Ulti already nicely skewered.

EDIT: why did GameFAQs get rid of HTML tags in posts

---

I feel like Xenoblade has grown in stature since 2015, but I might be saying this just because I watch a lot of The Runaway Guys.

---

NowItsAngeTime posted...

One thing I'll give Stardew Valley (why I enjoyed it more than most) is that there is essentially a main story end goal. To make your dead grandpa proud of you within 2 in game years. It does require you to basically do a half-completion run but at least it's better than other farm games without any goal whatsoever.

The older Harvest Moon games used to be like that, though I haven't played any new titles since 2007.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

The super serious shit didn't happen until IV. The PS2 era was full of wacky shit like Big Smoke spending hundreds of dollars at a fast food restaurant.

I'd say 3 and Vice City were still comically fun in their own way. San Andreas, while great, was where the scales started to tip. SA had fun shit like fighter planes, jetpacks, a solid soundtrack, and the best exploring area (until V came out). It also had tedious things like grinding your attributes to do required in game missions; I recall having to swim 30 minutes just to be eligible for an underwater mission.

IV still is the most overrated game of all time and I couldn't even finish it. None of the characters were likeable, the sidequests repeatedly (and almost forcefully) got in the way, and as you said, everything was super serious. V was almost the same way but at least had fun characters and plot behind it.

---

PostContestUlti posted...

Well, that and one of the best soundtracks in the history of video games. Seriously, go listen to it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPiDX76dHVE (click to expand)

Absolute fucking facts. Gaur Plains (both day and night versions) are played repeatedly with me

---

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I feel like Xenoblade has grown in stature since 2015, but I might be saying this just because I watch a lot of The Runaway Guys.

I definitely agree that Xenoblade has grown more popular, I think Xenoblade 2 (which is easily the best-selling Xeno game ever) got a lot more people into the series. Smash Ultimate being a much bigger deal than Smash 4 (the only other Smash game with Xenoblade representation) probably helped as well.

---

The Witcher 3's performance against Odyssey was so good it immediately turned B8 from viewing one half of the bracket as strongly favoured - based on solid match history - for Skyrim to leaning TW3. It was so good it actually took a lot of excitement out of the contest - not many R1 blowouts from non-favourites are capable of that. I guess we've all got better at knowing when a performance really is worth a big adjustment in our expectations (as opposed to a fun but ultimately trivial blowout like Mario Galaxy 2). Makes it a shame we never got to see it go against Smash or (the other) Odyssey, but no way Allen could have known it was going to have grown into a bona fide monster.

And Ori's performance was my favourite moment of the contest. I had it down as 60/40 for Dragon Age, and thought that would have been a pretty respectable showing. GoodTasteFAQs on show.

Edit: And Vice City was absolutely hilarious. Ken Rosenberg, Vercetti, Cortez, that rock band, Maurice Chavez. Very well written. GTA3 & SA had quite serious vibes much of the time though.

---

Outside of GameFAQs it seems like Fire Emblem games have a much higher playrate than Xenoblade (most likely due to the latter being a late in life Wii game and its 3DS port being a New 3DS exclusive with a graphical downgrade), but the people who've played Xenoblade tend to like it a lot more. It feels like it's really common for people who played Xenoblade to have it in their top 10 of all-time, whereas Fire Emblem fans can't agree what the best FE game is and for a lot of people games like Awakening and Three Houses were just "really good".

---

Anclation posted...

I definitely agree that Xenoblade has grown more popular, I think Xenoblade 2 (which is easily the best-selling Xeno game ever) got a lot more people into the series. Smash Ultimate being a much bigger deal than Smash 4 (the only other Smash game with Xenoblade representation) probably helped as well.

Yeah the increased presence in Smash also helps. I figured that if Xenoblade was already slightly stronger than Awakening, it could boost to the point where it would be stronger than Three Houses. At least I was right?

Honestly the Smash appearances were what got me interested in Xenoblade.

---

Division 6 Round 1: (1)Persona 5 vs (16)Heavy Rain

(1)Persona 5 - 19455 [78.29%]
(16)Heavy Rain - 5395 [21.71%]
Total Votes - 24850
Prediction Percentage - 90.4%

How did Heavy Rain make this contest, but not Detroit: Become Human? Detroit is by far the best game Quantic Dream has done. There was a good discussion this year about which game in the bracket fell off the hardest since release, and Heavy Rain was mentioned the most. I like the game, but it's hard to disagree. That game was almost universally loved and discussed when it first came out, now it's.... pretty much the exact opposite. I'm surprised it even made this contest.

But Persona 5? Man is that game is a badass slayer these days. Remember when the Persona series would struggle to beat games like Dead Rising, Civilization 4, and Street Fighter 4? Yeah, those days are long, long behind us. This is a mainstream series now, and it has a case as being the strongest JRPG series on this web site now. No Final Fantasy game released this decade can touch the Persona franchise, and you have to go back to the 90s to find some FF games to match up.

With all of that said, in a vacuum this match was a standard 1-16 blowout. However, it showed that Persona 5 was a slight step below the strength it needed to hang with the big boys and make the final. This was a great performance, but it wasn't quite enough to prove it could beat the likes of Witcher 3, Skyrim, and Dark Souls. Remember, these round 1 matches were all about positioning for that second finals spot.

---

Division 6 Round 1: (8)Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag vs (9)Sid Meier's Civilization V

(8)Black Flag - 14026 [56.44%]
(9)Civilization V - 10824 [43.56%]
Total Votes - 24850
Prediction Percentage - 64.34%

I half wonder if Allen got the two Assassin's Creed games backwards by accident when making this bracket, because Odyssey is in no way 16 seed material. Black Flag is. How in the world did Black Flag even make this contest, let alone as an 8 seed, eight lines above Odyssey? No one, not even the biggest Assassin's Creed series fans, likes Black Flag. That game was a dumpster fire.

It goes to show how little this site cares about the Civilization series, because you have to be megatrash to lose to Black Flag on GameFAQs. Civ 5 might have won this match if it was multi-platform and the seeding was reversed, but that's not the timeline we live in right now. This was a typical dat top option 8 vs 9 fodder duel. We get those now and again, and this contest was no exception. Congrats on winning a ticket to getting destroyed by Persona 5, I guess.

I have nothing else to say about this match, so here's a list of DAT TOP OPTION fodder vs fodder 8/9 matches.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/949-east-division-round-1-ryo-hazuki-vs-guybrush-threepwood
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1735-midgar-division-round-1-vyse-vs-laharl
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3755-heart-division-round-1-laharl-vs-neku-sakuraba
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4118-west-division-round-1-marvel-vs-capcom-2-vs-new-super-mario
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6084-best-game-ever-day-9-suikoden-ii-vs-monster-hunter-4u
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7956-division-6-round-1-assassins-creed-black-flag-vs
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7964-division-7-round-1-rocket-league-vs-dragon-ball-fighterz

Yes, Laharl is on this list twice in both a win and a loss. This is the dumb stuff one looks up during matches Assassin's Creed wins.

---

It should be noted that the MvC2 vs. NSMBW match was the result of a successful outside rally, not a DAT TOP OPTION type match.

Nintendogs posted...

It should be noted that the MvC2 vs. NSMBW match was the result of a successful outside rally, not a DAT TOP OPTION type match.

I just couldn't resist putting a Mario game on that list.

---