Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1321

(+) Yeah! (+)

Remember when it was generally understood that characters had shifting trends subject to significant random variation over 5-minute periods?

Or everything is a rally. That works too.
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Feels like it's been a long time since I've been invested in Cloud winning a match, but here I am.
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I think if (when) Cloud makes it back to Link he'll get a lead during the first five minutes this time.
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I am petrified. I don't think I have it in me to rally everyone again.
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Cmon cloud.

Do this for gamefaqs.

Also this guy takes AGES to unlock in smash certainly in single player and has about 2 spirits and 2 music track related to him. He may as well not be in smash.
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This update was Mario's peak percentage against Sephiroth, outside of the board vote and first few updates. From here to the end of the poll, Mario lost 1.95% against Sephiroth. Based on that, Cloud is projected to win with 50.97% (about 550 votes).

Now, you may have noticed, the projection has changed a lot in the last half hour. That's what happens with our new very low votals. Percentages are extremely volatile in such a low votal environment, and trend projections are not nearly as accurate as they used to be. So this isn't over, even not considering rallying, but I would say Cloud is looking like the favorite.
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Yuri_LowelI posted...

Cmon cloud.

Do this for gamefaqs.

Also this guy takes AGES to unlock in smash certainly in single player and has about 2 spirits and 2 music track related to him. He may as well not be in smash.

Yeah, what was up with that? It was almost like they wanted Mario to only be an afterthought.
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Go Cloud!
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if anyone cares and doesnt mind spending 5 bucks to make a donation, maximillian is streaming right now to 10k people. FF7 is his favorite game of all time. (you have to donate at least 5 to appear on stream)

https://www.twitch.tv/maximilian_dood

if you make a donation with a simple "hey, give a shout out to cloud on gamefaqs character battle" or something i'm pretty sure that'd guarantee he wins.

Please god don't do that
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A twitch rally? Now that's new.
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XIII you need to watch your blood pressure dude
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Wtf is going on?
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Jman_maximum posted...

if anyone cares and doesnt mind spending like a buck to make a donation, maximillian is streaming right now to 10k people. FF7 is his favorite game of all time

https://www.twitch.tv/maximilian_dood

if you make a donation with a simple "hey, give a shout out to cloud on gamefaqs character battle" or something i'm pretty sure that'd guarantee he wins.

Now that truly is a situation where the voters could go either way. Way different to a reddit dedicated to a fanbase, this is just gamers watching right? Or does he mainly stream Final Fantasy
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he streams a variety of games. mainly fighting games and rpgs i think. but his audience knows FF7 is his all time favorite game.

you have to donate 5 bucks for the message to show on stream by the way, just a heads up.

Mario by the hour:

20:00 | 52.02%
21:00 | 50.14%
22:00 | 53.97%
23:00 | 49.51%
24:00 | 48.70%
01:00 | 50.10%

Mario squeezes out the hour by 3 votes. Votals were notably high this hour - didn't fall off from last hour as usual.
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red sox 777 posted...

Mario by the hour:

20:00 | 52.02%
21:00 | 50.14%
22:00 | 53.97%
23:00 | 49.51%
24:00 | 48.70%
01:00 | 50.10%

Mario squeezes out the hour by 3 votes. Votals were notably high this hour - didn't fall off from last hour as usual.

But what does it MEAN Basil?

(aka updated trends plz)

XIII_rocks posted...

Please god don't do that

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Nanis23 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

Please god don't do that

Somebody please do it.
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haloiscoolisbak posted...

Nanis23 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

Please god don't do that

Somebody please do it.

I will hentai rally Mario
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Nanis23 posted...

haloiscoolisbak posted...

Nanis23 posted...

XIII_rocks posted...

Please god don't do that

Somebody please do it.

I will hentai rally Mario

You fair-weather fan rooting for Mario when it suits you
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if nothing else it'd be fascinating to see what sort of effect a twitch shoutout from a big streamer would have in these contests since this has never been tried before. this is also a fairly rare opportunity since the day of a particular match has to coincide with a big streamer that really likes that game being on

Yes it'd be a worthwhile experiment
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Sorry XIII but I remember you being thoroughly pleased when Snake beat Sephiroth and cost me the contest.

Let's mosey, Cloud.
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Too many people here talking about potential rallies and asking someone to pony up the money so they can watch what happens. Spend the $5 yourself if you're so interested.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Too many people here talking about potential rallies and asking someone to pony up the money so they can watch what happens. Spend the $5 yourself if you're so interested.

Mate I'm lazy
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Based on Mario/Sephiroth, Cloud wins with 50.72% (~400 votes). Cloud fell back a little in the projection that hour, but still is on pace for the win.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

Sorry XIII but I remember you being thoroughly pleased when Snake beat Sephiroth and cost me the contest.

Let's mosey, Cloud.

That was a different time.

Also we had an account bet on that match if you remember.
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XIII_rocks posted...

That was a different time.

Also we had an account bet on that match if you remember.

Irrelevant. I wish I could let bygones be bygones but the sentiment remains the same.

Also Cloud deserves this. This is a rematch 15 years in the making.
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also Sp*rs went through today, you've had more than enough good for the week.
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welp, Cloud decided to stop his comeback to that looks like that'll be that.
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ExThaNemesis posted...

welp, Cloud decided to stop his comeback to that looks like that'll be that.

Looking at the map, cloud has nearly everywhere but the US locked down. So at least we might see a brief overnight lead swap
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Jman_maximum posted...

if anyone cares and doesnt mind spending 5 bucks to make a donation, maximillian is streaming right now to 10k people. FF7 is his favorite game of all time. (you have to donate at least 5 to appear on stream)

https://www.twitch.tv/maximilian_dood

if you make a donation with a simple "hey, give a shout out to cloud on gamefaqs character battle" or something i'm pretty sure that'd guarantee he wins.

Can someone please do it? I dont have a twitch account.

If Cloud wins this match as a result of your donation, and I win a prize in this contest (Im tied at #20 right now with 6 others, and have Cloud winning this match) I will pay you back. I promise. Deal?
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@iGenesis posted...

Jman_maximum posted...

if anyone cares and doesnt mind spending 5 bucks to make a donation, maximillian is streaming right now to 10k people. FF7 is his favorite game of all time. (you have to donate at least 5 to appear on stream)

https://www.twitch.tv/maximilian_dood

if you make a donation with a simple "hey, give a shout out to cloud on gamefaqs character battle" or something i'm pretty sure that'd guarantee he wins.

Can someone please do it? I dont have a twitch account.

If Cloud wins this match as a result of your donation, and I win a prize in this contest (Im tied at #20 right now with 6 others, and have Cloud winning this match) I will pay you back. I promise. Deal?

I'll do it if you pay me $100
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Never mind...the guy is playing Smash () Any votes from a shoutout likely wouldnt go cleanly to Cloud. So forget it.
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Thank you ulti for your donation
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Mario by the hour:

20:00 | 52.02%
21:00 | 50.14%
22:00 | 53.97%
23:00 | 49.51%
24:00 | 48.70%
01:00 | 50.10%
02:00 | 52.95%
03:00 | 47.70%

Mario pulls out a nearly 53% hour out of nowhere, and then Cloud gets a fairly good hour of his own.

Based on Mario/Sephiroth, Cloud wins with 50.45%. Despite that monstrous Mario hour, Cloud is still ahead in the projection.
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Hope Cloud can at least take the lead during the night vote. He used to be able to pull hours off Link during it so it'd be pretty sad if he couldn't chase Mario down now.
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Mario needs to stop the bleed right fucking now
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Cloud with a 54-55% hour there.

Mario cannot survive those
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Mario by the hour:

20:00 | 52.02%
21:00 | 50.14%
22:00 | 53.97%
23:00 | 49.51%
24:00 | 48.70%
01:00 | 50.10%
02:00 | 52.95%
03:00 | 47.70%
04:00 | 46.23%

Cloud rolling now.
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Feels like Cloud's moving too slowly at this point, but I hope I'm wrong.
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Cloud cut 61 that hour. Relatively consistent with the previous one.
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who's projected to win the day vote based on Mario / Sephiroth trends?

Come on Cloud! Do it for Gamefaqs!

Samus died fighting the good fight. Her efforts must not have been in vain!
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At this rate Cloud is gonna run right over Mario.
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Still the #2 guy after all these years. Hopefully Cloud keeps this up so we get to see him vs Zelda which will be like the finals of the contest. Screw that last bonus battle with Link.

Total cut of 84 that hour. 6am eastern so hopefully the morning vote starts to mitigate this bleed soon.
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