Current Events > In India, summer heat could soon be unbearable

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/17/climate/india-heat-wave-summer.html

Extreme heat can kill, as it did by the dozens in Pakistan in May. But as many of South Asias already-scorching cities get even hotter, scientists and economists are warning of a quieter, more far-reaching danger: Extreme heat is devastating the health and livelihoods of tens of millions more.

If global greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace, they say, heat and humidity levels could become unbearable, especially for the poor.

It is already making them poorer and sicker. Like the Kolkata street vendor who squats on his haunches from fatigue and nausea. Like the woman who sells water to tourists in Delhi and passes out from heatstroke at least once each summer. Like the women and men with fever and headaches who fill emergency rooms. Like the outdoor workers who become so weak or so sick that they routinely miss days of work, and their daily wages.

These cities are going to become unlivable unless urban governments put in systems of dealing with this phenomenon and make people aware, said Sujata Saunik, who served as a senior official in the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs and is now a fellow at the Harvard University School of Public Health. Its a major public health challenge.

Indeed, a recent analysis of climate trends in several of South Asias biggest cities found that if current warming trends continued, by the end of the century, wet bulb temperatures a measure of heat and humidity that can indicate the point when the body can no longer cool itself would be so high that people directly exposed for six hours or more would not survive.

In many places, heat only magnifies the more thorny urban problems, including a shortage of basic services, like electricity and water.
For the countrys National Disaster Management Agency, alarm bells rang after a heat wave struck the normally hot city of Ahmedabad, in western India, in May, 2010, and temperatures soared to 118 degrees Fahrenheit, or 48 Celsius: It resulted in a 43 percent increase in mortality, compared to the same period in previous years, a study by public health researchers found.

Since then, in some places, local governments, aided by the Natural Resources Defense Council, an advocacy group, have put in place simple measures. In Ahmedabad, for instance, city-funded vans distribute free water during the hottest months. In the eastern coastal city of Bhubaneswar, parks are kept open in afternoons so outdoor workers can sit in the shade. Occasionally, elected officials post heat safety tips on social media. Some cities that had felled trees for construction projects are busy trying to plant new ones.

The science is unequivocally worrying. Across the region, a recent World Bank report concluded, rising temperatures could diminish the living standards of 800 million people.

Worldwide, among the 100 most populous cities where summer highs are expected to reach at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, according to estimates by the Urban Climate Change Research Network, 24 are in India.

Rohit Magotra, deputy director of Integrated Research for Action and Development, is trying to help the capital, Delhi, develop a plan to respond to the new danger. The first step is to quantify its human toll.

Heat goes unreported and underreported. They take it for granted, Mr. Magotra said. Its a silent killer.

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bump
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translation: "Please USA - give us free money!"
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Imagine when the heat rolls down the designated shitting streets. My god
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Caution999 posted...

translation: "Please USA - give us free money!"

You're not as dumb as you pretend to be online.

But be careful, it'll get stuck that way.
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Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

My country is responsible for like 1.4% of emissions related to climate change.

Yet we are supposed to change the world by cutting back. Lulz.
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Antifar posted...

Caution999 posted...

translation: "Please USA - give us free money!"

You're not as dumb as you pretend to be online.

But be careful, it'll get stuck that way.

<3
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Thanks, Ochinabama.
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Misread as "India Summer in heat could kill"

Now I'm thinking of India Summer

...

I'll be in my bunk
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Antifar posted...

Caution999 posted...

translation: "Please USA - give us free money!"

You're not as dumb as you pretend to be online.

But be careful, it'll get stuck that way.

lol

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

My country is responsible for like 1.4% of emissions related to climate change.

Yet we are supposed to change the world by cutting back. Lulz.

We should be doing our part.
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Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp
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So basically the rich are using greenhouse gases to slowly kill off the poor due to extreme climate conditions causing a 'purging' phenomenon that is legal and currently in effect world wide?
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Good I spent a lot of money on a new in ground pool and need September to be hot.
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Climate change doesnt exist
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Rika_Furude posted...

Climate change doesnt exist

Nah, we all know the climate changes.
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RE_expert44 posted...

Imagine when the heat rolls down the designated shitting streets. My god

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more reasons not to go outside. which is why i prefer fall and maybe winter if it didn't rain so damn much.
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RE_expert44 posted...

Imagine when the heat rolls down the designated shitting streets. My god

How do they avoid the plague?

Antifar posted...

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp

The problem is, Indias population is larger then every one of those countries on the list behind except for China obviously. Sure, Canada and Australia might put out more emissions per capita but they also have a population 35x smaller...
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Some aspects of the NY Times journalism in this article were really annoying. It came across as the type of doomsday fearmongering predictions about climate change we saw in the 70s and 80s that never came to pass. A couple things to note:

1) That article references Pakistan as another example of heat killing dozens. But if we look at the link, we see this:

The heat spiked on May 18, just days after the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan during which all able-bodied Muslims are required to abstain from food and water from sunrise to sunset. The timing exacerbated the effects of the brutal temperatures.

And we also see this:

Mr. Edhi, whose family began the Edhi Foundation, said he believed the true number of casualties was underreported in 2015 and continues to be underreported.

The 65 deaths his group reported this year, he said, are just deaths that we know about in Karachi.

Outside of the city, dozens more could have died, Mr. Edhi said. But we just dont have records.

So not only are people fasting and dehydrating themselves during the day because of Ramadan, but the number of known deaths is a small number of people when you consider the religious holiday and the size of the population there. And there are no records for the "dozens more" that this foundation insists must exist. So why take it at face value? Doing so comes across as speculation.

The article goes on with this:

The city has not released official numbers on fatalities, and its top official says no one died from heat stroke, but rather from heat-related injuries, like dehydration.

Dr. Seemin Jamali, the executive director of the Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Center, one of the biggest hospitals in Karachi, said the city had learned from the experiences of 2015. Were absolutely more in control of the situation, she said.

So no one died from heat stroke, but died from heat-related injuries like dehydration during Ramadan when fasting is mandated by law.

More from the article:

During Ramadan, Pakistan enforces a public ban on eating or drinking, with up to three months prison time for those found guilty of violating the ban.

Mufti Muhammad Naeem, the head of Karachis biggest religious seminary, said Islamic jurisprudence was clear about fasting during hot summer months.

Its only acceptable to break your fast if youre near death, he said. But doctors are quick to encourage us to drink water at the slightest sign of hot weather these days.

This is against Shariah, he added.

His beliefs are held widely among the city, leaving a gray area for strict believers who balance the risks of fatigue and heat stroke with religious requirements when the citys temperatures climb.

The water utility that serves the city is barely even functional:

http://www.kwsb.gos.pk/View.aspx?Page=26

When you factor in the catastrophic inefficiency and incompetence of the city's water utility organization, the abysmal reliability of their electricity infrastructure, and Ramadan...it's no wonder people die during the heat. Even regular heat is catastrophic under these conditions.

So now that we've looked at the article's mention of Pakistan, let's look at this article a bit closer. The article linked in the OP starts with an emotional story. But buried therein is this:

The doctor, Reena Yadav, didnt know exactly what had made Rehmati sick, but it was clearly linked to the heat. Dr. Yadav suspected dehydration, possibly aggravated by fasting during Ramadan.
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The article then mentions a study on the deaths during the 2010 heat wave in the city of Ahmedabad. What are the details of that study? I took a quick glance at it and:

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0091831

The NY Times writes about how the 2010 heat wave represented a 43% increase in mortality. That's a misleading statistic because instead of showing the raw numbers, they showed a percentage to give the illusion that it was a big increase caused by the heat wave. If you look at the graph that plots the data, though, you'll see that the 7-day moving average was basically the same even over this period. The biggest number of deaths in a single day during this period was close to 300 deaths on May 21st, 2010. When you consider that this was when Ramadan was on-going, in a poor city where the vast majority of the deaths happened in the slums, it's pretty clear that the nature of this heat wave is being exaggerated. A 43% increase in a small number sounds bigger if you say just "43% increase" without mentioning the actual numbers, especially if you omit to mention that the study correlated the heat with all-cause deaths rather than cause-specific deaths.

Here's another article that shows a picture of a woman in New Delhi standing next to stacked air coolers.

https://in.reuters.com/article/india-heatwave-disasters-idINKBN0OD2GT20150529

See the problem? When you're fasting during the hot time of the year for Ramadan, dehydrating your body...and wearing restrictive clothing, and living in a poor part of the city where water and electricity utilities are unreliable...that's a problem even when there aren't heat waves.

In any case, this study tries to correlate all-cause deaths with the highest temperatures. There's certainly a correlation, but why not just secure the specific heat-related death statistics from the government? That way we don't need to correlate the heat during a few days with all-cause deaths. Why didn't the study narrow down the numbers to the cause-specific deaths? At least mention that Ramadan was on-going! Oh wait, let's take a peek at who funded the study!

This work is funded by a grant from the Climate Knowledge Development Network.

Oh, I wonder if there's a possible conflict of interest here. Hmmmmmmmm!

I don't doubt that heatwaves are becoming more common in parts of the world. But it is really damaging to the narrative to write this type of article. There's no need for them to write bullshit about a 43% increase in mortality that way. It's misleading. I can see why they hesitate to write the truth on that matter - the truth would probably be that cause-specific deaths are far less common and are correlated to things like dehydrating during Ramadan, shitty water/electricity utilities, concrete-jungle slums where the poor live, etc.

Ultimately, humanity is on the right path to fixing these issues. Especially in India which has been flexing its solar energy muscle and is rapidly installing new sources of electricity from solar. India's problem isn't any particular heat wave - it's population density that is overwhelming infrastructure in the cities that are most prone to struggling during heat waves. India needs to reduce its population growth until population density is no longer a problem in these cities.
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Antifar posted...

If global greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace, they say, heat and humidity levels could become unbearable, especially for the poor.

I place about as much credibility in this statement as I do the "you may already be a millionaire" envelope from Publishers Clearinghouse.

95F is a cool day in Vegas.

It gets so hot, they literally tell you not to go outside.
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Antifar posted...

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp

It's not a mistake that the largest per capita emittors live in large geographically sparse countries where cars are a necessity for life.

KhanJohnny posted...

Antifar posted...

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp

It's not a mistake that the largest per capita emittors live in large geographically sparse countries where cars are a necessity for life.

This is what happens when busses don't run out to the suburbs.
...also, webp, really?

@FLUFFYGERM

@Questionmarktarius

People like you are why the world is doomed. Passing Climate Change as a partisan issue when really it should be a wake up call to people. Because you trust idiots like Trump over 99% of scientists show that you are the ones who should be ignored. Deal with it.
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Yeah, that's about the level of thought complexity I'd expect from our resident Pokemon master Duncanwii.

For anyone who wants to enjoy some real and some immensely positive and inspiring updates, take it from Al Gore rather than from me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVfgkFaswn4" data-time="
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Duncanwii posted...

@FLUFFYGERM

@Questionmarktarius

People like you are why the world is doomed. Passing Climate Change as a partisan issue when really it should be a wake up call to people. Because you trust idiots like Trump over 99% of scientists show that you are the ones who should be ignored. Deal with it.

Here's what's going to actually happen:
1. Climate bands drift poleward.
2. Current shitholes become shitholier.
3. Life goes on elsewhere.

If we want to make any meaningful impact on emissions, then we need to stop being so damn paranoid about nuclear.

KhanJohnny posted...

Antifar posted...

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp

It's not a mistake that the largest per capita emittors live in large geographically sparse countries where cars are a necessity for life.

Maybe but in Canada we're just pretty bad in general when it comes to waste.
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They're expecting these people to see their safety tips on social media? Most of these people still don't understand what a toilet is and shit in the fields.
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EternalDivide posted...

Most of these people still don't understand what a toilet is and shit in the fields.

Shitting in a field would actually be environmentally responsible.
They shit right on the street, which effectively pan-fries the poo, releasing various noxious gasses and leaving behind a sort of shit-cake that doesn't really do anything but be shitty pavement (literally) until the next rain.

EnterTheTekken posted...

Imagine when the heat rolls down the designated shitting streets. My god

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Questionmarktarius posted...

If we want to make any meaningful impact on emissions, then we need to stop being so damn paranoid about nuclear.

The US already gets ~30% of its electricity from nuclear

Ideally we'd invest heavily in renewables including nuclear so that we have ample nuclear reactors. I'm optimistic.
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FLUFFYGERM posted...

Questionmarktarius posted...

If we want to make any meaningful impact on emissions, then we need to stop being so damn paranoid about nuclear.

The US already gets ~30% of its electricity from nuclear

Ideally we'd invest heavily in renewables including nuclear so that we have ample nuclear reactors. I'm optimistic.

Power storage is going to be the next big thing. Instead of revving up the generators during peak usage, there will be bigass capacitor banks building up a charge over the rest of the day.
Also it makes solar and wind a bit more useful.

It's not just a throwaway plot device in Batman Returns.

weekoldhotdog posted...

So basically the rich are using greenhouse gases to slowly kill off the poor due to extreme climate conditions causing a 'purging' phenomenon that is legal and currently in effect world wide?

Who said that?
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Caution999 posted...

translation: "Please USA - give us free money!"

We unfortunately already do with all the people that are tricked by those tech support scammers.
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ImTheMacheteGuy posted...

weekoldhotdog posted...

So basically the rich are using greenhouse gases to slowly kill off the poor due to extreme climate conditions causing a 'purging' phenomenon that is legal and currently in effect world wide?

Who said that?

If that's an actual plan, it's just going to backfire spectacularly.

MuayThai85 posted...

Antifar posted...

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp

The problem is, Indias population is larger then every one of those countries on the list behind except for China obviously. Sure, Canada and Australia might put out more emissions per capita but they also have a population 35x smaller...

India will probably overtake China relatively soon... or, based on this article, maybe not.
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Questionmarktarius posted...

Here's what's going to actually happen:
1. Climate bands drift poleward.
2. Current shitholes become shitholier.
3. Life goes on elsewhere.

This is not actually what's going to happen. While the poorest parts of the planet are undoubtedly most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, those impacts are by no means limited to "current shitholes" unless that's a category so broad as to be meaningless.

https://www.axios.com/global-warming-might-knock-out-internet-rising-seas-884eef30-8230-4076-bc76-245fbe2b9fab.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/08/04/flooding-in-miami-is-no-longer-news-but-its-certainly-newsworthy/?noredirect=on

http://www.businessinsider.com/miami-floods-sea-level-rise-solutions-2018-4

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-06/new-york-boston-set-coastal-flood-records-as-storms-fuel-tides
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Lol the part of the globe that couldnt give two fucks about pollution complaining about the climate changes

What a suprise to nobody
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Antifar posted...

This is not actually what's going to happen. While the poorest parts of the planet are undoubtedly most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, those impacts are by no means limited to "current shitholes" unless that's a category so broad as to be meaningless.

Well, okay.
"Venice and New Orleans disappear" is in there somewhere.

Antifar posted...

Tupacrulez posted...

Maybe they shouldn't pollute so much if they're going to bitch about climate change.

https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-ed75e59454c5d6ca793dfdbd8ded0851.webp

Oh that's nice. A good twist on things.

Canada is a GIGANTIC country with literally fewer people in the entire place than the combined populations of LA and New York.

Saskatchewan is 3x the size of Germany. Germany has 80 million people in it.
Saskatchewan has 1 million.

As a country, we put out 1.4% of global emissions last I checked.

Please, go ahead and tell me how our 33 million people are going to turn this ship around. Come on, let's fucking hear how 1.4%, ofwe all died instantly and thus contributed nothing, would help majorly on a global scale.

I'll.
Fucking.
Wait.
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kingdrake2 posted...

more reasons not to go outside. which is why i prefer fall and maybe winter if it didn't rain so damn much.

There is no fall anymore. It goes pretty much straight from 96 degrees to 22 where i live now
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ToothpicksfDOOM posted...

kingdrake2 posted...

more reasons not to go outside. which is why i prefer fall and maybe winter if it didn't rain so damn much.

There is no fall anymore. It goes pretty much straight from 96 degrees to 22 where i live now

I don't recall that the midwest has ever really had an autumn.
Shorts one day, and snow the next. Then mud everywhere.