Current Events > Suppose a couple has 3 kids and at least one is a girl...

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Medussa
07/11/17 10:59:56 PM
#52:


Howl posted...
I did read it, and it's incorrect


it's right. at best you're reading the question wrong.
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Howl
07/11/17 11:07:10 PM
#53:


Medussa posted...
Howl posted...
I did read it, and it's incorrect


it's right. at best you're reading the question wrong.


No, not all those outcomes are possible as will be determined by the very first coin flip. 3 of the possibilities are eliminated instantly and therefore should not be calculated at all. There's never going to be an instance where all 7 possibilities are possible therefore they should not all be calculated in that way.
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woof
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Medussa
07/11/17 11:10:37 PM
#54:


aaarrrgh.

you don't know that it's the first coin flip. you only know that it's one of the three coin flips.
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Fam_Fam
07/11/17 11:13:19 PM
#55:


ugh, these fucking topics piss me off.

it's 1/7

source: math professor.
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Howl
07/11/17 11:13:55 PM
#56:


Medussa posted...
aaarrrgh.

you don't know that it's the first coin flip. you only know that it's one of the three coin flips.


Aarg it's irrelevant which one of the coin flips results in a girl because the very first coin flip automatically invalidates 3 of the possible outcomes.
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tiornys
07/11/17 11:14:25 PM
#57:


Howl posted...
No, not all those outcomes are possible as will be determined by the very first coin flip. 3 of the possibilities are eliminated instantly and therefore should not be calculated at all. There's never going to be an instance where all 7 possibilities are possible therefore they should not all be calculated in that way.

Again, you're assuming that one specific child is the girl. In this case, the first child. I actually covered this scenario and the related 25% probability in my post.
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Medussa
07/11/17 11:14:39 PM
#58:


i give up. live in ignorance.
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Fam_Fam
07/11/17 11:15:06 PM
#59:


P(all 3 girls | at least one girl) = P(all 3 girls & at least one girl)/P(at least one girl) = P(all 3 girls)/P(at least one girl) = (1/8) / (7/8) = 1/7
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FLOUR
07/12/17 12:13:54 AM
#60:


The answer should be 1/7 that many here concluded.

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