Current Events > North Korea supposedly launched an ICBM, the Hwasong-14 to 2800km apogee on Jul4

(+) Yeah! (+)

I am skeptical of all of this. The missile was 2-stage, video released by state media suggesting 4-nozzle first stage. Probably hydrazine base.

What all this means is 'butt-load of inert mass'. Generally for a long range missile/space launch rocket you want a 3-stage system to cut down on the inert mass which in turn allows for greater acceleration at the higher stages.

It's a modification of an 18m long, 1.8m wide missile and seems to be based on a soviet IRBM that had less than half the range that DPRK is claiming. While that missile was half as long, there are severe diminishing returns on a 2-stage missile. Past a certain operational acceleration profile, you just don't really get much more out of adding length to the system; you're adding fuel to accelerate additional mass and the system barely breaks even.

The idea that it would double the range of a missile by doubling its length seems highly unlikely to me.
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Trump won't do anything. He's a coward.
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KiwiTerraRizing posted...

Trump won't do anything. He's a coward.

Wtf is this?

There's enough topics on this board to shitpost about Trump in. This kinda isn't one of them.
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The mass is inert
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Could be that they're just using what's available, like those famous cubans who floated a pickup truck across to Florida.
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yeah i dont think this is about trump at all
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If they can put a man on the sun surely they can double the range by doubling the missile length.
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North Korea embellish a feat of theirs? No...
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RE_expert44 posted...

North Korea embellish a feat of theirs? No...

basically my thoughts

given we have the ability to track it i am wondering when we will be disputing their claims
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I'm shocked they haven't made a claim that they went to mars or the moon yet.
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lilORANG posted...

The mass is inert

It doesn't make a bit of difference, guys.
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GOATTHlEF posted...

You assured me last month that this was likely well beyond their capabilities.

and it likely still is
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That the best that North Korea could do on the 4th of July by sending a missile to Alaska?


Seriously?

So you're thinking it's all hot air?

Interesting though. I mean, of course they are one for propaganda, but it's always seemed to me that despite massive failures, their rocket tests have always been in full view.
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COVxy posted...

So you're thinking it's all hot air?

i'm thinking that they launched an extra-long R-27 and are overstating the apogee achieved
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Don't they know girth is more important?
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What I heard on NPR was that the missile reached higher than the ISS, and that if you flattened the trajectory it would reach Alaska. Although, of course, I'm not sure if it would go as far if it had to go lower in the atmosphere. What do you think, Darkman? Or is it not that simple?

Darkman124 posted...

i'm thinking that they launched an extra-long R-27 and are overstating the apogee achieved

Oh ok nm
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scar the 1 posted...

What I heard on NPR was that the missile reached higher than the ISS, and that if you flattened the trajectory it would reach Alaska. Although, of course, I'm not sure if it would go as far if it had to go lower in the atmosphere. What do you think, Darkman? Or is it not that simple?

1) missiles less than 10% the size of this one reach higher than the ISS. it is in LEO at 400km. this was supposedly 7x that.
2) if the altitude is real, yes it would reach alaska which is ~5700km from NK. it's a bit more complex than flattening the trajectory, more akin to an elliptical arc with a defined 'optimum' apogee for max range, but capable of going to higher apogees for less range
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7x? I thought it was like 1500km. Oh well. Either way, aren't they already able to hit stuff like Guam?
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scar the 1 posted...

7x? I thought it was like 1500km. Oh well. Either way, aren't they already able to hit stuff like Guam?

2800km

afaik their capabilities at present do not extend beyond MRBM with zero indication they have the miniaturization required to actually mount a warhead on an MRBM (which would require a much smaller payload than an ICBM)

so no they are not thought of as being able to hit guam, but they are assumed to be able to hit japan

whether they have the accuracy to actually hit a city of any kind--or even the entire island of guam--is something else entirely. guidance/nav/control is a really hard aspect of BM design.
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So.. "how worried should we be"?
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scar the 1 posted...

So.. "how worried should we be"?

imo: not worried
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Is it indicative of some sort of progress, though, on behalf of NK? I mean personally I find it kinda unlikely that they'd ever go through with an attack in the first place, I'm guessing that the US has enough anti-ballistic stuff to wreck anything they shoot no?
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scar the 1 posted...

Is it indicative of some sort of progress, though, on behalf of NK? I mean personally I find it kinda unlikely that they'd ever go through with an attack in the first place, I'm guessing that the US has enough anti-ballistic stuff to wreck anything they shoot no?

maybe. it's also possible they bought it illegally from russia since it appears to be a modified R-27 design.

the US has a series of programs that would target this. if it's legitimate, it'd only be targetable by GMD. if it's closer to the R-27, it'd be targetable by the sea-based standard missile series by the time it was deployed

but as it's a mobile ground-based launch that requires a paved road to fire from and an hour of setup, realistically it would never get off the ground

they'd actually have better success launching it from a silo.
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RE_expert44 posted...

I'm shocked they haven't made a claim that they went to mars or the moon yet.

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They're most likely doing this so that people would be scared of them a bit more. Since the logic of why some people aren't willing to war with them is the sole fact that they can still sorta do damage to the surroundings before they go down, flower any length of their slipshod missiles and such, and there you go.

This, especially if it's that dubious, sounds to me like they don't really wanna war, either.
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All this served to accomplish is to solidify the US's need and desire to deploy THAAD (or even a full Iron Dome) setup to all their allies in the region. China and Russia seem to be pushing hard to get negotiations started because they don't want that kind of setup deployed either, but they seem to also be content letting NK piss about on the global stage. The question remains, though, what happens if neither side blinks?

Either way, I'm glad we have someone like Mattis at the helm. Trump may be often unhinged, but Mattis is a solid commander with a lot of experience, so I trust his judgment in whatever our response may be.
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s0nicfan posted...

All this served to accomplish is to solidify the US's need and desire to deploy THAAD (or even a full Iron Dome) setup to all their allies in the region. China and Russia seem to be pushing hard to get negotiations started because they don't want that kind of setup deployed either, but they seem to also be content letting NK piss about on the global stage. The question remains, though, what happens if neither side blinks?

Either way, I'm glad we have someone like Mattis at the helm. Trump may be often unhinged, but Mattis is a solid commander with a lot of experience, so I trust his judgment in whatever our response may be.

THAAD/Iron Dome would be useless against this threat if it's as described. THAAD is for SRBMs, Iron Dome for intercepting conventional warhead-armed rockets

it would be useless even if it's not as described but rather comparable to other hydrazine-based missiles which are IRBMs

the likely countermeasures are GMD (if real) and Aegis Ashore IIA (if not real)


i do agree that mattis is a voice of reason in the white house and will handle things fine.
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bump
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bump
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Pew pew
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scar the 1 posted...

So.. "how worried should we be"?

Wrong question.

"How worried should South Korea be?"
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Darkman124 posted...

Generally for a long range missile/space launch rocket you want a 3-stage system to cut down on the inert mass which in turn allows for greater acceleration at the higher stages.

Generally for a long range missile you get about 15,000 km. The Hwasong-14 has an estimated range of 5,500 km...
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The Deadpool posted...

Generally for a long range missile you get about 15,000 km. The Hwasong-14 has an estimated range of 5,500 km...

generally speaking, comparably-ranged missiles are either two stage-solid or three-stage.

also, neither the minuteman 3 nor the satan-2 have a 15000km range.
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s0nicfan posted...

China and Russia seem to be pushing hard to get negotiations started because they don't want that kind of setup deployed either, but they seem to also be content letting NK piss about on the global stage.

China is kind of the main reason this is happening at all: they are NK's main trading partner and probably the nation most likely to have some control over NK.

As for how worried we should be... Some. The missile can reach Alaska or it can deliver a nuclear payload but not both. So they're a ways from their goal.

Also the goal isn't really to nuke the US but to use the threat as leverage in negotiations. Which isn't good mind you, but they are unlikely to actually try and fire one.
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The Deadpool posted...

Also the goal isn't really to nuke the US but to use the threat as leverage in negotiations. Which isn't good mind you, but they are unlikely to actually try and fire one.

you are correct about this--it's a political weapon

IMO they already have a far better political weapon in the simple location of Seoul.
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Darkman124 posted...

The Deadpool posted...

Generally for a long range missile you get about 15,000 km. The Hwasong-14 has an estimated range of 5,500 km...

generally speaking, comparably-ranged missiles are either two stage-solid or three-stage.

The point is that their design, while "suboptimal", isn't necessarily "impossible."
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The Deadpool posted...

The point is that their design, while "suboptimal", isn't necessarily "impossible."

their design is very nearly impossible for the numbers they're stating. missiles of half the length and the same girth, with the same fuel (which, fwiw, is pretty much the best liquid fuel there is), go about half as far

you cannot simply double the length of a rocket motor to double its range. you have to use an additional stage or the inerts will render much of the length increase a waste.

i do rocket motor optimization day to day. it does not add up
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Then you keep on waiting for experts to come to the same conclusion as you and let us know any day now...
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The Deadpool posted...

Then you keep on waiting for experts to come to the same conclusion as you and let us know any day now...

odds are the expert conclusions will be classified and i will not be at liberty to share their conclusions with you.
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Darkman124 posted...

you cannot simply double the length of a rocket motor to double its range. you have to use an additional stage or the inerts will render much of the length increase a waste.

NK with real life troll physics lol.

Kim Jong Un be like "guys we can heat this frozen pizza twice as fast if we set the oven to 900 F" and then wondering why it's burned into the oven and then sending the oven maker to labor camp.
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Darkman124 posted...

The Deadpool posted...

Then you keep on waiting for experts to come to the same conclusion as you and let us know any day now...

odds are the expert conclusions will be classified and i will not be at liberty to share their conclusions with you.

I mean the US originally disagreed with the classification of ICBM but after further inspection agreed with it.

If it turns out the missile can't reach Alaska, there's no reason to keep that under wraps.
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DevsBro posted...

Could be that they're just using what's available, like those famous cubans who floated a pickup truck across to Florida.

What?
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The Deadpool posted...

I mean the US originally disagreed with the classification of ICBM but after further inspection agreed with it.

If it turns out the missile can't reach Alaska, there's no reason to keep that under wraps.

i can think of several reasons:

1) the methodology used to calculate it involves software whose existence is classified
2) the tracking used to measure its altitude involves hardware whose existence or location is classified
3) the motor phenomenology is so similar to certain other motors from rival nations that the fact that it was clearly given to them by said rival nation is classified
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COVxy posted...

KiwiTerraRizing posted...

Trump won't do anything. He's a coward.

Wtf is this?

There's enough topics on this board to shitpost about Trump in. This kinda isn't one of them.

He probably can't get him off his mind. Poor fellow probably dreams about the guy.
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Darkman124 posted...

The Deadpool posted...

I mean the US originally disagreed with the classification of ICBM but after further inspection agreed with it.

If it turns out the missile can't reach Alaska, there's no reason to keep that under wraps.

i can think of several reasons:

1) the methodology used to calculate it involves software whose existence is classified
2) the tracking used to measure its altitude involves hardware whose existence or location is classified
3) the motor phenomenology is so similar to certain other motors from rival nations that the fact that it was clearly given to them by said rival nation is classified

or 4) it benefits them politically to claim it can reach Alaska, even if it can't, so why not just go with what everyone else is saying?
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