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the current analysis shows that custodial sanctions have no effect on reoffending or slightly increase it when compared with the effects of noncustodial sanctions such as probation. This finding is robust regardless of variations in methodological rigor, types of sanctions examined, and sociodemographic characteristics of samples. All sophisticated assessments of the research have independently reached the same conclusion. The null effect of custodial compared with noncustodial sanctions is considered a criminological fact. Incarceration cannot be justified on the grounds it affords public safety by decreasing recidivism.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/715100