LogFAQs > #976890122

Dikitain posted...

They have zero chance of winning because everyone believes they have zero chance of winning. If people would actually get out of the mindset of "one or the other" then it wouldn't be a problem.

It would, actually.

The problem with first-past-the-post voting systems, as adjl accurately observed, is that it favours two dominant parties. In virtually every country that elects its leaders via FPTP, there will be two - and only two - parties that trade power, and if there are any other parties they are small supporting players at best, never truly threatening to take power.

The reason for that is multiple parties on the same political spectrum dilute the vote, strengthening their ideological opponents. Canada is an excellent example of this. The country is notably left-wing, as in any given election approximately 60-75% of the country votes for centre-left or left-wing parties; however, the Conservative Party (and their predecessors, the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance, and the Progressive Conservative Party) has spent its entire existence, dating back to the founding of the country, either as the governing party or the official opposition (i.e. the second-place party). This is because while there are typically 3-4 left-leaning parties large enough to attract significant numbers of voters, the Conservatives are the single party of appreciable size on the political right (the only time this wasn't true was when the Progressive Conservative Party split, with the more right-wing elements of the party breaking off and forming the Reform Party in the 90s; until they reunited in the early 2000s, this split gave the governing Liberals more or less an uncontested path to re-election, as the already small right-wing vote in Canada was split between the two parties).

Notably, although there are currently four left-leaning parties (the Liberals, the NDP, the Bloc Quebecois, and the Greens), only the Liberals have ever formed government or even come particularly close. The only time this wasn't the case was when the Liberals imploded around 15 years ago, and the NDP took their place as the dominant left-wing party (which lasted for precisely one election cycle, after which Justin Trudeau was elected as the Liberal leader and promptly won the next federal election and has led the country ever since).

Since FPTP punishes multiple ideologically-aligned parties, you will never see three or more "contenders" under that voting system. You will always only have a two-horse race, even when there are more parties in the running.