LogFAQs > #971890659

masterplum posted...

Plausible it could be overturned but I doubt it. I assume one of barret/kavanaugh/gorsch wouldn't overturn it just cuz

I would rate it fairly probable that it gets overturned if it gets to SCOTUS. They already held back in 2011 that penalizing people for not buying health insurance isn't covered by the Commerce Clause because not buying health insurance isn't commerce. Roberts saved Obamacare by finding that it was a valid tax instead of a penalty and Congress could legislate it under its tax power. But there's no tax here, and it's major stretch to say that marriage is interstate commerce.

I mean I would guess a law that says that states have to recognize marriages performed in other states would probably be upheld....but probably not the portion that tells states what they can and can't do regarding marriages within their own territory.