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Topic	Controversial Opinion #4: Automation
LinkPizza 04/03/21 12:42:18 PM #41:	darkknight109 posted... Enough of it will be that you'll notice and be impacted by it. Enough isn't everything. I said everything. It's already around enough to affect things, so the only thing that changes is it affect more things. But that's not what I said. I said when the world is fully automated, I'll be dead. Not when most things are... So, again, I'll be dead by the time the world is gully automated (and shitty because of it)... darkknight109 posted... And again, I hasten to add, none of this is future tech, it's all out there today. If you don't think change is in your near future, you are mistaken. That's my point. Self-checkout was invented nearly 30 years ago. And still hasn't taken over every store yet. Some stores still don't have any. And many stores only have a small section of them... Technology seems to be moving much slower than you think it is... darkknight109 posted... Like, self-driving cars are a technology that exists today. That's not future tech, that's something that exists and is already on the road. The first automated buses have already been introduced on select routes in pilot cities. The first fully-automated long-haul truck delivery has also been done. The next step is going to be widespread rollout and costs dropping from economies of scale. With how long it's taken self-checkouts (something that needs much less testing to use) took to get where it is today, it'll probably be at least another 10-15 years before it becomes somewhat common. And common doesn't mean at vehicles will be self-driving. Probably not even close to it... darkknight109 posted... About 10% of the US workforce is employed in the transportation sector and the vast majority of those jobs can and will be destroyed by self-driving cars. And that will happen in years, not decades. It'll be at least a decade... Not to mention, there are still lots of thing to work out. Like for example, at the bus station I was at, we'll have drivers for at least a while. Especially since a huge portion of out clients are in wheelchairs, and need to be secured once on the bus. In other cities where self-driving buses are, I'm guess they don't have the same amount of people in wheelchairs, if they have any... darkknight109 posted... And that's just one piece of tech. Farmers are experimenting with automated harvesters to reduce their reliance on farm labourers. Newspapers employ programs to pre-write their articles, then just use a human editor to touch them up. Lawyers use algorithms for discovery, engineers have been programming pieces of their jobs into obsolescence for years, and medical workers are increasingly turning to AIs like Watson to help them in their job. We're even seeing robot artists and musicians producing artwork from automation. Yeah. And it's costing people their jobs, which really suck and make the world a shittier place... darkknight109 posted... Counterpoint: the first true smartphone showed up in 2002; 10 years later, there were 680 million of them in circulation and five years after that they hit 1.5 billion. Yep. A lesser technology that needs less testing that goes faster. If we follow that rules, it'll be like another 20 years before self-driving cars are popular... And if you want to know, the reason they are popular is also because they have less non-smartphone phones. People who only use their phones for calling end up having smart phones because that's mostly what they sell. Sometimes, it can be harder to get the older phones or they don't work as well, anymore... --- Official King of Kings Switch FC: 7216-4417-4511 Add Me because I'll probably add you. I'm probably the LinkPizza you'll see around. <cite>LinkPizza posted [p:952422886] in Controvers... [t:79384298]...</cite> <quote>darkknight109 posted...</cite> <quote>Enough of it will be that you'll notice and be impacted by it.</quote> Enough isn't everything. I said everything. It's already around enough to affect things, so the only thing that changes is it affect more things. But that's not what I said. I said when the world is fully automated, I'll be dead. Not when most things are... So, again, I'll be dead by the time the world is gully automated (and shitty because of it)... darkknight109 posted...</cite> <quote>And again, I hasten to add, none of this is future tech, it's all out there today. If you don't think change is in your near future, you are mistaken.</quote> That's my point. Self-checkout was invented nearly 30 years ago. And still hasn't taken over every store yet. Some stores still don't have any. And many stores only have a small section of them... Technology seems to be moving much slower than you think it is... darkknight109 posted...</cite> <quote>Like, self-driving cars are a technology that exists today. That's not future tech, that's something that exists and is already on the road. The first automated buses have already been introduced on select routes in pilot cities. The first fully-automated long-haul truck delivery has also been done. The next step is going to be widespread rollout and costs dropping from economies of scale.</quote> With how long it's taken self-checkouts (something that needs much less testing to use) took to get where it is today, it'll probably be at least another 10-15 years before it becomes somewhat common. And common doesn't mean at vehicles will be self-driving. Probably not even close to it... darkknight109 posted...</cite> <quote>About 10% of the US workforce is employed in the transportation sector and the vast majority of those jobs can and will be destroyed by self-driving cars. And that will happen in years, not decades. </quote> It'll be at least a decade... Not to mention, there are still lots of thing to work out. Like for example, at the bus station I was at, we'll have drivers for at least a while. Especially since a huge portion of out clients are in wheelchairs, and need to be secured once on the bus. In other cities where self-driving buses are, I'm guess they don't have the same amount of people in wheelchairs, if they have any... darkknight109 posted...</cite> <quote>And that's just one piece of tech. Farmers are experimenting with automated harvesters to reduce their reliance on farm labourers. Newspapers employ programs to pre-write their articles, then just use a human editor to touch them up. Lawyers use algorithms for discovery, engineers have been programming pieces of their jobs into obsolescence for years, and medical workers are increasingly turning to AIs like Watson to help them in their job. We're even seeing robot artists and musicians producing artwork from automation.</quote> Yeah. And it's costing people their jobs, which really suck and make the world a shittier place... darkknight109 posted...</cite> <quote>Counterpoint: the first true smartphone showed up in 2002; 10 years later, there were 680 million of them in circulation and five years after that they hit 1.5 billion.</quote> Yep. A lesser technology that needs less testing that goes faster. If we follow that rules, it'll be like another 20 years before self-driving cars are popular... And if you want to know, the reason they are popular is also because they have less non-smartphone phones. People who only use their phones for calling end up having smart phones because that's mostly what they sell. Sometimes, it can be harder to get the older phones or they don't work as well, anymore... --- Official King of Kings Switch FC: 7216-4417-4511 Add Me because I'll probably add you. I'm probably the LinkPizza you'll see around.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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