LogFAQs > #947555869

Assuming a naive* distribution of cases in America, a gathering of 10 people has a 15% chance to have an infected person there. A 15 person gathering has 20%. If a third of the country has a Thanksgiving celebration with 10 people, and each gathering has at most one infected person there, then that's 14 million new cases if everybody at the gathering gets infected. Still over a million new cases if only one person gets infected. By comparison, if that same group had a gathering of 5 people, then... well, it turns out to boil down to about half the cases at 6.66M (hail binomial approximation). That's pretty not good. This is very rough math, but you get the idea. Don't put all your eggs in one basket and all

*An even proportion of cases across the country, everybody is asymptotic and contagious. Using 5M active cases I found from worldometers

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