LogFAQs > #945920212

Lightning Strikes posted...

A victory by 1% is still a victory. Just the fact that you win at all has to be accounted for in a model, you need to do this in order to account for places that regularly go one direction by tight margins, like Georgia. As such, Clinton was given an 83.5% chance of winning Wisconsin despite it being historically close. Her chances there never dipped below about 70 even when Trump led the nationwide polls.

Trump only led nationwide very briefly in a post convention bounce. And Clinton's chances dipped down to 65% that same time period. More importantly, Corrik keeps claiming Silver added points to Clinton when the Wisconsin adjustments literally helped Trump (as he went from 40.5% unadjusted to 41.0% adjusted). But there's nothing unreasonable about looking at a natural swingy state that went pretty solidly blue the last two election cycles and assume that the undecided voter allocation would largely be even or, at the very least, not heavy in one direction or another. Clinton literally hit her predicted mark at 46.4% in the state. But once again, undecided voters and an underperforming Libertarian Party (4.9% expected, 3.6% actual) helped Trump get the victory.

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TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues.