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| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 329: There's No Debate |
| Lightning Strikes 10/16/20 9:33:50 AM #94: | A victory by 1% is still a victory. Just the fact that you win at all has to be accounted for in a model, you need to do this in order to account for places that regularly go one direction by tight margins, like Georgia. As such, Clinton was given an 83.5% chance of winning Wisconsin despite it being historically close. Her chances there never dipped below about 70 even when Trump led the nationwide polls. Youre absolutely right that models need historical data, of course they do, but it always carries a risk of overfitting which is what happened to those states in 2016. --- I just decided to change this sig. Blaaaaaaargh azuarc ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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