LogFAQs > #945918868

Hey Rock, the modelling that fivethirtyeight uses incorporates historical data, which means that it will mute the effects of novel shifts in polling. This is why Maine is still close despite the fact that Collins hasnt led a poll there in over three months. Its also why Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were overcalled for Hillary despite decent evidence that they were close. Basically the model is at risk of overfitting to old results. You can see this when comparing to their skinny model which has these seats much more in line with the polls, as they deemphasise the historical data and increase the relevance if polling.

Source: I do this for a living.

Also just to be clear, Trump didnt refuse to condemn QAnon he endorsed. Dangerous and terrifying.

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