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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 329: There's No Debate
TheRock1525 10/16/20 7:49:19 AM #59:	Corrik7 posted... North Carolina is 66 to 34 and considered a toss up everywhere. And everywhere else is wrong. Do we need to revisit how places like the NYT gave Trump a 1% chance of winning? While Silver's model gave him a nearly 30% chance? Or how their 2018 model was almost dead on? Biden is favored to win NC. The term toss-up implies it's literally a coinflip, which is universally not true here. Biden has polled consistently ahead Trump in NC, sometimes within the margin of error in the poll but also sometimes above the margin of error in a poll. So in order for Trump to win the state, there currently has to be a polling error of above 3.1 points. Which is possible, but the less likely of the scenarios. Hence why Biden can and should be considered the favorite in NC, even if ever so slightly. Corrik7 posted... Notice how people who say Clinton had the same polling as Biden are right but wrong? Actually, they're both wrong and wrong. Clinton has never polled as well as Biden. She had far more undecided voters, rarely polled over 50%, and never had leads as big as Biden's. Corrik7 posted... Silver used to skew his polls all the time, and his Clinton skews made her lead look bigger than it really was last time. No he didn't. The final projected polls had Clinton at 48.5% and she finished with 48.2% of the vote. What happened was a late break of undecided voters for Trump and an underperformance by third party candidates in the final ballot (the projection had Johnson taking 5% of the votes and he ultimately ended up 3.3%). A toss-up is only a toss-up if there is a nearly equal chance of either election result. That's not how this works at all. Even if the polling is within the MOE, if poll after poll after poll shows you down then you are not in a coinflip race. Which is literally want toss-up means. You may win because underdogs win all the time in all sorts of things because ultimately we still have to get down to the actual performance. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues. <cite>TheRock1525 posted [p:945917615] in Politics C... [t:79042418]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>North Carolina is 66 to 34 and considered a toss up everywhere.</quote> And everywhere else is wrong. Do we need to revisit how places like the NYT gave Trump a 1% chance of winning? While Silver's model gave him a nearly 30% chance? Or how their 2018 model was almost dead on? Biden is favored to win NC. The term toss-up implies it's literally a coinflip, which is universally not true here. Biden has polled consistently ahead Trump in NC, sometimes within the margin of error in the poll but also sometimes above the margin of error in a poll. So in order for Trump to win the state, there currently has to be a polling error of above 3.1 points. Which is possible, but the less likely of the scenarios. Hence why Biden can and should be considered the favorite in NC, even if ever so slightly. Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Notice how people who say Clinton had the same polling as Biden are right but wrong?</quote> Actually, they're both wrong and wrong. Clinton has never polled as well as Biden. She had far more undecided voters, rarely polled over 50%, and never had leads as big as Biden's. Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>Silver used to skew his polls all the time, and his Clinton skews made her lead look bigger than it really was last time.</quote> No he didn't. The final projected polls had Clinton at 48.5% and she finished with 48.2% of the vote. What happened was a late break of undecided voters for Trump and an underperformance by third party candidates in the final ballot (the projection had Johnson taking 5% of the votes and he ultimately ended up 3.3%). A toss-up is only a toss-up if there is a nearly equal chance of either election result. That's not how this works at all. Even if the polling is within the MOE, if poll after poll after poll shows you down then you are not in a coinflip race. Which is literally want toss-up means. You may win because underdogs win all the time in all sorts of things because ultimately we still have to get down to the actual performance. --- TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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