LogFAQs > #945916836

Corrik7 posted...

Nobody cares what his analysis is and nobody said they are coin flips either. Toss ups are races within the margin of error. Not sure if you are serious.

This isn't "analysis." It's modeling. Because just outright taking polling and ignoring other info like demographics and undecided voters is really dumb for projecting races. Especially 4 years removed from us ignoring the significant number of undecided voters heading into the election that broke heavily for Trump despite Clinton leading in the polls.

Secondly, if it's a toss-up race, it will literally say "it's a toss up race."



Even 538 did an article explaining how inelastic South Carolina was, and explained how even when Harrison was polling ahead of Graham, it was in polls where Harrison was only averaging 45-47 points and leaving a significant amount of undecided voters on the table. Which, with analysis of the demographics, show that SC Democrats struggle to go beyond 47% of the vote and leaves Harrison unlikely to win. Hence the reason that while the race tightened when polling came up good for Harrison, it never got closer than a 1/4 shot (which was much improved from the 1/10 shot he was looking at earlier this year).

So yeah, there's only one real toss-up: Ernst and Greenfield. The rest have favorites, either slightly or clearcut.

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TheRock ~ I had a name, my father called me Blues.