LogFAQs > #944404039

I ran the numbers for how many packs was equivalent value to one non-golden legendary (since some bundles have a random legendary) and the numbers...surprised me.

My conclusion: Roughly speaking, 6 packs = 1 random legendary (in terms of overall dust value).

So...how did I get to this number?

Well, I assume that about 50% of legendaries are bad and are best dusted (the other half are good and worth crafting), so the dust value of one random legendary is the average of 400 and 1600 (which is 1000 dust).

I assumed the same for epics, which means the average value of an epic is the average of 100 dust and 400 dust (which is 250).

I don't care if my cards are golden or not, so golden legendaries are always worth 1600 dust to me, and golden epics are always worth 400 dust to me.

Due to duplicate protection, I will always have all the commons and rares now, so those are always worth 5 and 20 dust (50 and 100 if golden).

I then looked up the probabilities of all of these:

https://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics#Golden_cards

Plugged them all into a spreadsheet with my value of each number. And got the average dust value of a pack (counting the good epics and legendaries I got as "cards I effectively just crafted") as being...164.1. Seems reasonable enough. (225 is the dust value of a pack if you want to collect every epic and legendary. 102.7 is the dust value if you just disenchant everything. 164.1 is half-way in between, which is around where I am).

1000/164.1 = 6.1

Tweaking numbers doesn't change things too much (if I assume 33% of legendaries/epics are worth keeping and the rest are worth dusting, then 5.6 packs are equivalent to 1 random legendary. If I assume 67% of epics/legendaries are worth keeping, and the rest are worth dusting, then 6.5 packs are equivalent to 1 random legendary)

So...yeah, either way roughly 6 packs being equivalent value to a random legendary.

Packs are...higher value than I expected. I guess the unintuitive part is that dusting all golden cards and all commons/rares gets you about 62 dust per pack (371 dust across three packs), and then you add to this 1.2 epics and 0.3 legendaries (which is like...0.6 of the value of a random legendary already).

With duplicate protection this ratio is unlikely to ever change (I'll always get all the commons and rares, never get all the epics or legendaries, never have to worry about duplicates shifting the calculation). Well, I guess it shifts a bit if I ever bother with another wild bundle (I might actually care about the commons and rares! But on the flip side, the percentage of cards actually wild viable is more like 15% than 50%).

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