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TopicAdjusting the contest scoring system based on prediction percentages
ZeldaTPLink
05/19/20 10:43:47 AM
#53:


ShatteredElysium posted...
Some permutations

1 > 2 > 3 > 5 > 8 > 13 > 21
Perfect score = 295 points
Correct final 2 and winner = 85 points / 28.8% of possible points
Correct winner only = 53 points / 18% of possible points

1 > 2 > 3 > 4 > 5 > 6 > 7
Perfect score = 247 points
Correct final 2 and winner = 49 points / 19.8% of possible points
Correct winner only = 28 points / 11.3% of possible points

1 > 2 > 4 > 6 > 8 > 10 > 12
Perfect score = 304 points
Correct final 2 and winner = 74 points / 24.3% of possible points
Correct winner only = 43 points / 14.1% of possible points

1 > 2 > 4 > 8 > 8 > 8 > 8
Perfect score = 312 points
Correct final 2 and winner = 70 points / 22.4% of possible points
Correct winner only = 39 points / 12.5% of possible points

1 > 2 > 4 > 8 > 16 > 32 > 64
Perfect score = 448
Correct final 2 and winner = 200 points / 44.6% of possible points
Correct winner only = 127 points / 28.3% of possible points

How much of the max possible points do you want calling the winner to be worth?

I think there should be some acceleration between a round and the next one, so the first one is the best. Though it's still a lot higher than what all the prediction %s so far have shown. It does look smooth though, and maybe is a good concession.

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