Ok I've decided to do this for the rest of the contests.
We are going to do it from the most recent to the oldest. First, CBX:
Hmm that is a lot to unpack.
The first four rounds have very similar scorings to GotD1, which suggests my hunch of taking it as the standard was a good one.
The later rounds, though, can't really compare to anything else though, due to Legends/Losers structure. Looking at it, we can see "Round 5" showed a drop in difficulty, due to the possibility of just betting on noble niners to win everything (which worked except for Pikachu and Zeld matches). The next two rounds show a fibonacci-like increase of difficulty (yes, I second on the Fibonacci idea being great). The last legends bracket seems another drop, thanks to Link.
Losers matches are worth 8, but we can see they maybe should have been worth 4. The final Link match is only twice as hard as Round 1 ones, which seems to be a global trend. In a given contest, about 30-40% of casual bracket makers will correctly identify the Zelda entry that is guaranteed to win.
Best Year in Gaming only has one format weirdness, the Wildcards round. I decided to keep Round 1 as the normal instead, so we can see Wildcards is worth about 80% of it (due to having obvious blowouts between old years).
The rest is actually pretty smooth. Years is one of the chalkier brackets, but aside from, again, the finals, it shows a soft progression (1.3, 1.4, 1.4). Not much that I can compare with other contests: not only it's a 5-round contest so round 1 should be intrinsecally more valuable than usual, but it's also fucking Years. Moving on.
So it seems Character Battle 2013 doesn't have prediction % data in the site. This sucks, because I wanted to see how much the Draven picks were worth. Someone feel free to provide them to me if they have it.
Let's go to Rivals, then.
Eh this one is all over the place. I wasn't around at the time of Rivals though, so I don't really know how to explain it. It seems every round after the first one is worth roughly 1.3, until we get to the Link finals which again, is worth about 2. I think this is another very chalky contest though, so it makes sense for numbers to be lower, and the wonkiness could just be the normal statistical deviation.
And with this I think I covered the whole decade, except for 2013. I'll cover the previous decade later this week.
