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TopicCoronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi
charmander6000
04/01/20 10:02:27 AM
#72:


Corrik7 posted...
You want a wave of people that is a significant chunk of the population but also is reduced some to not overwhelm the hospital system too much. If you could get 1 million people infected this go around, then wave 2 has at least 1/400th of the population immune hopefully for awhile which automatically social distances.

I'm not sure what the hospital capacity for the United States is, but assuming each 1 million person wave lasts a month (waves typically last longer than that) it would take 33 years to have everyone immune, assuming back to back waves and no births/deaths over that time. By that time the virus will have likely mutated. Of course you don't need a 100% immunity rate, but typically for herd immunity you want 95%.

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