LogFAQs > #936580711

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Topic	Coronavirus Episode 6: Return of the Jedi
LordoftheMorons 04/01/20 5:52:54 AM #65:	Corrik7 posted... That's why it is important to not lockdown too early before enough people get affected. You want to flatten the curve some to reduce load on hospitals while getting enough people immune to the virus as possible. This isn't feasible given that R0 is considerably above 1. For herd immunity you need a fraction 1-1/R0 of the population to be immune to get the effective R below 1 and stop exponential spread (so on the order of half the population). To keep that under our hospital capacity that would have to be stretched over and extremely long period of time, and even if we did that having half the population get the virus even with everyone getting treatment would be an unacceptably huge loss of life. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:936580711] in Coronaviru... [t:78523738]...</cite> <quote>Corrik7 posted... </cite> <quote>That's why it is important to not lockdown too early before enough people get affected. You want to flatten the curve some to reduce load on hospitals while getting enough people immune to the virus as possible.</quote>This isn't feasible given that R0 is considerably above 1. For herd immunity you need a fraction 1-1/R0 of the population to be immune to get the effective R below 1 and stop exponential spread (so on the order of half the population). To keep that under our hospital capacity that would have to be stretched over and extremely long period of time, and even if we did that having half the population get the virus even with everyone getting treatment would be an unacceptably huge loss of life. --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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