LogFAQs > #936404036

umax555 posted...

The next week or two will tell us a lot. We're nearing the 2 week mark of when strong social distancing really started to kick in. Many of the cases diagnosed in the last couple of weeks are likely infections that occurred before social distancing. So we should start to get an idea of how effective our measures have been. Hopefully, the rate of new cases will start to slow. If not, we're in really big trouble. Of course, if we're able to ramp up testing the numbers might increase rapidly regardless.

Yeah, our biggest problem is the lack of capability to test. South Korea prioritized the production of test kits back in January(they had their first confirmed case the same day we did: January 27th), and they were able to ramp up production fast enough to catch and trace case clusters and effectively isolate them, mitigating spread while ensuring their public health infrastructure was as prepared as possible for the carnage. They've managed to slow the spread and significantly mitigate the number of fatalities.

Really, in the coming week, we're going to find out a lot. How bad are things going to get down South? Can Michigan get a handle on the cluster in Detroit, or is it already too late? Can NYC cope, or will those hardest-hit hospitals have to resort to triage like the ones in Lombardy? How long will the problem keep Trump's attention, and will he ever actually act?