LogFAQs > #936370592

Round 1 Fallout 4 vs. VVVVVV

Moltars Analysis

Based off the one good poll we have of Fallout 4, it was worth 45% on Witcher 3 in GotY 2015. Witcher is more of an evergreen game that has gotten stronger over time, while Fallout has gotten a lot of negative press recently with its later entries. VVVVVV, like Hollow Knight, has shown up on a lot of other platforms since its release, so its definitely gotten a lot more exposure since its one poll in 2010 shows. Basically the question is if the Fallout franchise has fallen enough on GameFAQs for it to lose to a widely-played indie game.

I dont think so, as that seems like too far for Fallout 4 to have dropped. The Fallout series is stronger than the Tales series, so it should be able to beat an indie game. After seeing Hollow Knight and Bastion over-perform though, I dont think itll be as easy of a win as I thought before the contest started.

Moltars Bracket: Fallout 4

Moltars Prediction: Fallout 4 57%

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transiences Analysis

Oh god. I have no damn idea what to do here. It's hard not to take Bastion and Hollow Knight's results as some kind of indie trend -- and VVVVVV is a great little test. Let's just talk about it. VVVVVV is on every platform in the world now. It's on phones. It's on Switch. It's on PS4. Heck, I'm closely following a project to port the game to the SNES ever since the source code was released at AGDQ a couple months ago. Pretty much everyone has played V in some capacity, and it's super likable with that killer soundtrack and its infectious spirit.

We haven't seen VVVVVV in a poll in almost 10 years and the game has exploded in popularity since then. Is it more popular than Hollow Knight? No, probably not, but I wouldn't completely count it out and it's definitely better than Bastion is.

The argument against indies is a lot more logical: new Tales games are just extremely weak, and Bastion is hanging tight with a visual novel game, a genre that's never gotten anybody going on this website. It's a lot easier to doubt the competition than think that this website of all places suddenly decided to get up to speed on the amazing indie game scene.

With all that said, let's talk about the clear favourite. Fallout 4 has some pretty decent results in its GOTY polls, though those results feel real weird thanks to how this site handles multiplatform titles. Fallout 4 never really felt like a fan favourite though. It's competent game that people generally liked, but I've never gotten the sense that it's a big hit. New Vegas is probably more liked and Fallout 76 did a real number to the franchise. Fallout 4 won't completely bomb, but if people like VVVVVV as much as they like Hollow Knight it might be in trouble.

I won't pick V here, but I'm not going to give Fallout 4 a lot of credit here.

transience's prediction: Fallout 4 with 54.05%

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Leonharts Analysis

Im surprised to see VVVVVV get such a high seed. I dont recall seeing any sort of rally for it on B8. It was the first indie game I ever played, so I have some fond memories of it. I have questions about how well Fallout 4 will do. It was considered a bit of a disappointment after Fallout 3 and New Vegas, and coupled with the debacle that Fallout 76 was, I wonder if it might not look very good here. It did finish runner-up to Witcher 3 in the 2015 GOTY, but that was honestly a pretty weak year overall. The only Nintendo game represented was the Majoras Mask remake because Xenoblade Chronicles X won the Wii U poll, which should tell you all you need to know.

Anyway, the point is that I think Fallout 4 wouldve been a juicy upset pick if you had put it up against something else, but Im not sure VVVVVV has what it takes. I think itll make FO4 look bad though!

Leonharts Vote: VVVVVV

Leonharts Prediction: Fallout 4 with 58.01%

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Kleenexs Analysis

A travesty if I ever saw one. V is going to lose, but it shouldnt. This site likes itself some Fallout, and even though Fallout 4 isnt going to be as strong as Fallout 3 has in previous contests, I still expect Fallout 4 to look pretty good. Truth be told, Im actually fairly surprised V even got in this thing, let alone as a 9 seed. The poor game has been in literally one poll in the entirety of GameFAQs history where it finished...slightly ahead of Recettear in the 2010 indie game poll. Now I know what youre saying. But Kleenex, thats the same Recetter who beat Travis Touchdown in 2013! Surely that means something! I know you were all thinking it.

Well I have bad news for you.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5165-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-big-boss-vs-peacock

I dont even remember what Peacock is.

Kleenexs Prediction: Fallout 4 with 69.25%

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Guests Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

I took this match because I've actually beaten VVVVVV, and have a bit of a feel for Fallout since my brother is a fan of the series. I'm not exactly banking on VVVVVV scoring an upset, but Fallout 4 is NOT going to go big here. Fallout 4 is a heavily contested sequel even by Fallout standards, and much of the time it's brought up it's to complain about it. It also definitely didn't make the same impact Fallout 3 did on release. Let's not even go into Fallout 76 putting a massive target on Bethesda

My approach to calculating the percentage in this match is to pattern it after both of the "AAA game underperforms against indie game" matches in 2015 - Mass Effect 3/Undertale and GTA: San Andreas/Shovel Knight. There's also Persona 4/Braid in 2010 which fell under a similar percentage. Here goes:

Fallout 4 with 63%

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Crew Consensus: Fallout makes its way to a Round 2 shelter.


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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/