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Topic	Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 0
Master Moltar 03/14/20 2:50:21 PM #59:	Guest sign-ups for the first couple divisions are most likely going up sometime tomorrow. Also hope to start putting up Crew write-ups for the first few matches on Tuesday. In the meantime I had some time to kill, so I did one of those tier list things. This one is a ranking from least interesting to analyze to most interesting to analyze. Low Tier Division 5 On the surface, it looks like a very cut-and-dry division. All the top seeds are solid favorites to win every match here, and the only thing still up for debate for me is Witcher 3/God of War. Its hard to look for an upset too because weve seen Galaxy 2 and Fallout New Vegas in the past, and Witcher 3 would have to flop pretty hard for it to lose to one of those games, especially since it seems like one of the games most likely to have gotten stronger since 2015 for various reasons. Division 7 Similar to Division 5, this one is also looking pretty predictable, though a few of the Round 1 matches are a little less obvious. Dark Souls and The Last of Us are very likely to end up in the Divison Finals, and thats a match Im still going back and forth with at the moment. Dark Souls/MGSV is a rematch we didnt need, and theres no reason for that result to have changed over time. Also not feeling the upset potential with BioShock Infinite or Batman either. Division 3 SSBUs fourpack is one of the biggest wastes of potential in the entire contest, as Link Between Worlds and even Bayonetta could have done some damage in other parts of the bracket. Outside of that though, this division has a number of debatable topics. Spider-Man seems like it should be strong enough to win its fourpack, but you could make a case for Minecraft if Spider-Man flops. Undertale is back, and while it should be stronger than its base strength in 2015, it probably wont get rallied again and itll have to deal with anti-votes, so an underperformance is very possible. DMC5/Tropical Freeze is a toss-up in my mind, and Odyssey should be strong, but is it strong enough to beat SSBU? Mid Tier Division 1 There are a handful of debatable matches in this division, even though theres no question who is getting out of it. Even in Round 1, there are at least 3 that I could see going either way. Round 2 is mostly locked in after that, though Monster Hunter/Sekiro is giving me some pause. DQXI seems like it should be strong enough to get to the Division Finals, but if it flops, then it could be interesting to see if Monster Hunter or Sekiro can upset it. Division 6 Round 1 for this division doesnt look too exciting, as the higher seeds should be the favorites here, with the exception of the 8/9 Assassins Creed/Civilization match that looks like a toss-up to me. Sonic Mania/Super Meat Boy is an interesting Round 2 match, but Persona 5 looks to be the clear favorite to win the top half of the division. The bottom half is a little more exciting, mostly because Kingdom Hearts III is such a wildcard. We havent seen much of it since it missed the Game of the Year polls, but most are expecting it to be nowhere near KH2 in strength. If thats the case, then either Portal 2 or RDR 2 are looking good to meet P5 in the Division Finals in a match with some upset potential if P5 doesnt end up being as strong as people think. Division 2 The first round in this division looks straight-forward, but after that it gets interesting. Has Mass Effect 2 held up after all this time? Fallout 4 could take it out early. The other Round 2 also matches all have favorites to win, but none of those matches are locks to me. ME2 and RE2 are the most likely to get to the Division Finals, and right now I can see that match going either way. I wouldnt be surprised to see Horizon, FE: Awakening, or Bloodborne there though. Top Tier Division 8 Very solid division all around here. Theres a handful of debatable meaningless Round 1 matches, as well as a debatable Round 1 match where the winner is the favorite to also win Round 2 in Uncharted 4/Mario Kart 8! Pokemon HGSS/Nier Automata is a tough call pre-contest, as we dont know how well remakes will play in this environment. 2Bs Character Battle showing also makes it seem like Nier will do well, though this could be a Dante/DMC case where the character is way stronger than the game. Skyrim seems like the obvious winner of this division, but depending on the ceilings of Pokemon and Nier, I wouldnt say its a total lock. Division 4 A division where a GTA game is the top seed? You already know this is a very debatable one. The top seeds in Round 1 are the favorites, but I can see some upset potential in a few of them, especially Overwatch/Death Stranding. P4G/RDR is definitely debatable to me, because much like with Pokemon HGSS, its hard to say how well a remake like Persona 4 Golden will do here, since I can see it having both a high ceiling and low floor. GTAV will have to get past the winner of that match, which is not a lock. Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Three Houses is the biggest and most debatable match in the bottom half of the division, and the winner there also has a shot at winning the division final against whoever makes it through the top half. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ <cite>Master Moltar posted [p:935670802] in Game of th... [t:78328774]...</cite> <quote>Guest sign-ups for the first couple divisions are most likely going up sometime tomorrow. Also hope to start putting up Crew write-ups for the first few matches on Tuesday. In the meantime I had some time to kill, so I did one of those tier list things. This one is a ranking from least interesting to analyze to most interesting to analyze. Low Tier Division 5 On the surface, it looks like a very cut-and-dry division. All the top seeds are solid favorites to win every match here, and the only thing still up for debate for me is Witcher 3/God of War. Its hard to look for an upset too because weve seen Galaxy 2 and Fallout New Vegas in the past, and Witcher 3 would have to flop pretty hard for it to lose to one of those games, especially since it seems like one of the games most likely to have gotten stronger since 2015 for various reasons. Division 7 Similar to Division 5, this one is also looking pretty predictable, though a few of the Round 1 matches are a little less obvious. Dark Souls and The Last of Us are very likely to end up in the Divison Finals, and thats a match Im still going back and forth with at the moment. Dark Souls/MGSV is a rematch we didnt need, and theres no reason for that result to have changed over time. Also not feeling the upset potential with BioShock Infinite or Batman either. Division 3 SSBUs fourpack is one of the biggest wastes of potential in the entire contest, as Link Between Worlds and even Bayonetta could have done some damage in other parts of the bracket. Outside of that though, this division has a number of debatable topics. Spider-Man seems like it should be strong enough to win its fourpack, but you could make a case for Minecraft if Spider-Man flops. Undertale is back, and while it should be stronger than its base strength in 2015, it probably wont get rallied again and itll have to deal with anti-votes, so an underperformance is very possible. DMC5/Tropical Freeze is a toss-up in my mind, and Odyssey should be strong, but is it strong enough to beat SSBU? Mid Tier Division 1 There are a handful of debatable matches in this division, even though theres no question who is getting out of it. Even in Round 1, there are at least 3 that I could see going either way. Round 2 is mostly locked in after that, though Monster Hunter/Sekiro is giving me some pause. DQXI seems like it should be strong enough to get to the Division Finals, but if it flops, then it could be interesting to see if Monster Hunter or Sekiro can upset it. Division 6 Round 1 for this division doesnt look too exciting, as the higher seeds should be the favorites here, with the exception of the 8/9 Assassins Creed/Civilization match that looks like a toss-up to me. Sonic Mania/Super Meat Boy is an interesting Round 2 match, but Persona 5 looks to be the clear favorite to win the top half of the division. The bottom half is a little more exciting, mostly because Kingdom Hearts III is such a wildcard. We havent seen much of it since it missed the Game of the Year polls, but most are expecting it to be nowhere near KH2 in strength. If thats the case, then either Portal 2 or RDR 2 are looking good to meet P5 in the Division Finals in a match with some upset potential if P5 doesnt end up being as strong as people think. Division 2 The first round in this division looks straight-forward, but after that it gets interesting. Has Mass Effect 2 held up after all this time? Fallout 4 could take it out early. The other Round 2 also matches all have favorites to win, but none of those matches are locks to me. ME2 and RE2 are the most likely to get to the Division Finals, and right now I can see that match going either way. I wouldnt be surprised to see Horizon, FE: Awakening, or Bloodborne there though. Top Tier Division 8 Very solid division all around here. Theres a handful of debatable meaningless Round 1 matches, as well as a debatable Round 1 match where the winner is the favorite to also win Round 2 in Uncharted 4/Mario Kart 8! Pokemon HGSS/Nier Automata is a tough call pre-contest, as we dont know how well remakes will play in this environment. 2Bs Character Battle showing also makes it seem like Nier will do well, though this could be a Dante/DMC case where the character is way stronger than the game. Skyrim seems like the obvious winner of this division, but depending on the ceilings of Pokemon and Nier, I wouldnt say its a total lock. Division 4 A division where a GTA game is the top seed? You already know this is a very debatable one. The top seeds in Round 1 are the favorites, but I can see some upset potential in a few of them, especially Overwatch/Death Stranding. P4G/RDR is definitely debatable to me, because much like with Pokemon HGSS, its hard to say how well a remake like Persona 4 Golden will do here, since I can see it having both a high ceiling and low floor. GTAV will have to get past the winner of that match, which is not a lock. Xenoblade and Fire Emblem Three Houses is the biggest and most debatable match in the bottom half of the division, and the winner there also has a shot at winning the division final against whoever makes it through the top half. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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