LogFAQs > #934396422

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Topic	Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change
LordoftheMorons 02/14/20 10:57:37 PM #335:	red sox 777 posted... We don't have infinite data. Nor do we need it for our purposes. I guess the question is, after running this experiment you get to predict one more coin flip. The model says 51% heads. What do you think the probability is? Do you think it's closer to 51% or 99%? There's a definitely possibility that I don't understand your setup correctly, but the best estimate is 51% if I use no extra information (like in reality I would use the fact that I know a normal coin gives a 50% chance and for N flips of a fair coin the standard deviation is sqrt(N/4), so unless there were much more than 2500 flips 1% is a reasonable discrepancy). --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! <cite>LordoftheMorons posted [p:934396422] in Politics C... [t:78403764]...</cite> <quote>red sox 777 posted... </cite> <quote>We don't have infinite data. Nor do we need it for our purposes. I guess the question is, after running this experiment you get to predict one more coin flip. The model says 51% heads. What do you think the probability is? Do you think it's closer to 51% or 99%?</quote>There's a definitely possibility that I don't understand your setup correctly, but the best estimate is 51% if I use no extra information (like in reality I would use the fact that I know a normal coin gives a 50% chance and for N flips of a fair coin the standard deviation is sqrt(N/4), so unless there were much more than 2500 flips 1% is a reasonable discrepancy). --- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge!</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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