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| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 268: Hope & Change |
| red sox 777 02/14/20 10:43:02 PM #331: | LordoftheMorons posted... The model can only estimate a probability distribution; it cant say anything to distinguish between different processes that give the same probability distribution function (e.g. flipping 100 fair coins or flipping 100 double faced coins that each have a 50% chance of being double heads or double tails). But if you have two models with even slightly different distributions, they can be distinguished in the limit of infinite data. We don't have infinite data. Nor do we need it for our purposes. I guess the question is, after running this experiment you get to predict one more coin flip. The model says 51% heads. What do you think the probability is? Do you think it's closer to 51% or 99%? --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard! |
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